China-US dispute could enter dangerous phase over Taiwan

The spectacular development of the last decades, which has made China a superpower, has sparked a strategic competition with the United States, exacerbated by Donald Trump and supported by Joe Biden. So far, this dispute has been fought at a technological, business, and rhetorical level, with 5G, semiconductors, tariffs and mutual accusations as weapons. Is there a risk that this weapon will be replaced by a more lethal weapon, such as missiles, fighter jets or tanks? Some analysts have one word and one place to say it exists: Taiwan.

“China could take Taiwan back by force within the next six years,” the region’s commander-in-chief, Admiral Philip S. Davidson, recently told a congressional committee in Washington.

Beijing seems to be developing a new, more aggressive policy towards the island it considers a province. A few days ago, it deployed an aircraft carrier near the island’s coastline and soon after, the Navy issued a statement in which it said “similar exercises would be carried out periodically in the future.”

Ambiguity. The United States and China reestablished their diplomatic relations in 1971, when Henry Kissinger negotiated, at the request of Richard Nixon, Beijing’s support for an honorable exit from Vietnam and with the aim of inserting a wedge in the ” communist bloc “as the Asian Giant integrated into the Soviet Union. Chinese Premier Zhou Enlai, analyst Niall Ferguson recalled in a recent article, had only one request in return: Taiwan.

For Davidson, who heads the Indo-Pacific command, the policy of “strategic ambiguity” towards Taiwan that the United States has been applying since the Kissinger accords must be “reconsidered”: it does not recognize it, but sells it arms, for example.

“China wants to show the United States that it is playing with fire and that Taiwan is a red line. But from there to open conflict, there is enough. China will only get on board when it has sufficient guarantees of victory. The opposite would be suicide, ”says Xulio Ríos, director of the Observatory of Chinese Policy.

In any case, the Spanish specialist believes that “in the medium term, the hypothesis of a conflict is more and more plausible for two reasons. First, because the possibility of peaceful reunification is clearly on the decline due to the political situation on the island. Second, because Taiwan’s resignation is not acceptable to the Chinese Communist Party ”.

Urgent and vital. For Ferguson, President Xi Jinping sees the Taiwan issue as Zhou Enlai did: “urgent and vital,” something which fifty years later remains the CCP’s priority.

“For Xi, all of this is good for stimulating nationalism at home and establishing himself internally for the XX Congress next year,” said Ríos, who points out that in 2027, when the six years estimated by the admiral Davidson for a possible invasion, “This is the centenary of the creation of the People’s Liberation Army.” Another very important date is 2049, when a century of the People’s Republic will be completed. “These dates are on the table. What happens to the global pulse between China and the United States will have a substantial effect on Taiwan’s future, ”he adds.

Patricio Giusto, director of the Sino-Argentinian Observatory, acknowledges that the military tension around Taiwan has increased considerably. “The Biden administration has confirmed new arms sales to the island, and China is more aggressive, with forays with planes and the deployment of part of its fleet,” he said.

“There are more military movements and the rhetoric hardens, but the status quo remains: both sides know they would face an intolerable situation if there was a direct military confrontation. And a possible Chinese invasion of Taiwan would directly involve the United States in the region, which China has always wanted to avoid, ”added Giusto.

For now, as analyst Tim Culpan argues, China is developing a long-term strategy to convince the international community that Taiwan’s reincorporation is only a matter of time, based on three principles: “Taiwan is part from China; Beijing is ready to go to war before abandoning this territory and, faced with an armed conflict, any ally will see that the price to pay to defend the 23 million Taiwanese is very high. “I mean, it’s a lost cause.

Philippines Professor of the postgraduate program on Contemporary China at UCA and visiting professor at Zhejiang University (China), Giusto points out that the crossings by Taiwan eclipse the real risk of imbalance in the region: the clashes between China and the Philippines.

Manila has severely criticized the presence of Chinese fishing vessels which, it says, have long operated in the waters of its exclusive economic zone. Beijing has deployed its military fleet to protect these ships. “This may be a greater imponderable than what can develop in Taiwan,” says Giusto, “especially because of the unpredictable and changeable character that rules the Philippines, Rodrigo Duterte, who has gone from pro-China to that of back in the arms of the United States. States. Now “.

Ezequiel Ramoneda, academic secretary of the Asia and Pacific department at La Plata University, points out that China’s more aggressive stance in the region is not limited to Taiwan or the Philippines, but also to its southern neighbors.

“The tension in the South Sea (for China), in the East Sea (for Vietnam) or in the West Sea (for the Philippines) has increased a lot because of the actions of Chinese fishing boats, this which caused scales, ”he recalls.

In these disputed waters, for years “China has been building artificial islands, on sandbanks, superstructures in which it can build hangars, airplane runways, satellites. It is not an invasion, but it worries the neighbors ”, affirms the analyst.

Ramoneda points out that earlier this year the Coast Guard Law was enacted in China, which from a legal standpoint includes provisions that extend its national law to these disputed areas. “It projects its internal or internal law onto this territory where claims are juxtaposed. There are no bombastic statements, but there are, ”he said.

Indo-Pacific. All this shows that beyond the symbolic importance for Beijing that Taiwan possesses, the risks of escalation of military tension concern the entire region, which the United States and its allies define as the “Indo-Pacific” , a concept which, as analyst Andrés Serbin argues that China and Russia reject.

“The Indo-Pacific strategy led to the idea of ​​a ‘Free and Open Indo-Pacific’ (FOIP), to which Washington added a democratic component insofar as it fostered coordination among four democracies in the region: the United States, Japan, India and Australia, ”explains Serbin.

It is therefore evident that the “anti-China” key to this concept has given way to the Quadrilateral Dialogue on Security (QUAD) as a mechanism for cooperation and coordination among the four nations in matters of security, which Donald Trump ignored. , but which Biden rekindled with a virtual summit that was one of his first activities related to international politics.

For Serbin, the withdrawal of American troops from Afghanistan, announced by Biden this week, shows “the need to focus on one of the most conflicting theaters of operations for the United States, the Indo-Pacific”.

Giusto agrees that Biden is “betting on the formation of a grand coalition of Indo-Pacific countries against China,” and underlines that there will soon be “mega military maneuvers with the participation of the United States, India, from Australia, Japan, South Korea, Vietnam, Philippines and even Germany ”.

A possible conflict in Taiwan would not represent the first time the United States has faced a communist power on an island. This already happened in 1962, with the “missile crisis” with the USSR for Cuba. But almost sixty years later, the point is the reverse. Today, it’s up to you to defend an island against a threat of invasion.

Japan facing the “challenges” of Beijing

AFP

Joe Biden and the head of the Japanese government, Yoshihide Suga, the first foreign leader received in Washington by the new American president, on Friday pledged to face “together” the “challenges” posed by China.

“We are determined to work together to address the challenges posed by China and in issues such as the East China Sea, the South China Sea, but also North Korea,” Biden said. “We are working together to show that democracies can win the challenges of the 21st century by delivering results for their people”, in an ideological confrontation against “autocracies”.

Coinciding with Biden, the head of the Japanese government spoke of an alliance between the two countries based on “freedom, democracy and human rights”. Suga also assured that the two allies would oppose “any attempt” by China to “change the status quo by force or intimidation in the seas of south and east China.”

Eager to showcase tangible progress, the US president said he would work with Tokyo to “promote reliable and secure 5G networks,” a commitment of $ 2.5 billion from the US side and $ 2 billion from Japan.

Biden, who appears determined to continue this offensive, said the technologies at the center of global competition are “governed by standards set by democracies, not autocracies.”

Taiwan The two leaders also referred to the growing tensions around Taiwan, which denounces the increasingly hostile actions of Beijing. In a joint statement, they stressed “the importance of peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait”. Although spoken with restraint, this is the first time that a Japanese leader has issued a joint statement with a US president in Taiwan since the two allies recognized Beijing over Taipei in the 1970s.

The Chinese embassy in the United States yesterday expressed its “strong dissatisfaction” after these remarks which undermine the fundamental interests of Beijing, which will not tolerate “any interference” in its internal affairs.

“It cannot be more ironic that such an attempt to stir up division in (the region) Asia-Pacific and build small blocs directed against third countries is presented as ‘freedom and openness’,” he said. declared the embassy in reference to the American will to build a “free and open Indo-Pacific region”.