Coronavirus: Why the world should be worried about the huge crisis caused by the pandemic in India

“I have never seen such a terrifying situation. I can’t believe we are in the capital of India, ”Jayant Malhotra told the BBC. “People don’t get oxygen and die like animals,” he adds.

Malhotra is helping at a crematorium in New Delhi, the city where hospitals are collapsing in the face of an unprecedented surge in coronavirus infections. The country reported a world record for new daily cases confirmed for the fifth consecutive day on Monday.

As India suffers from this latest wave, China, the United States, much of Western Europe and parts of Africa and Southeast Asia have seen the number of deaths drop. during the two weeks leading up to April 25.

In fact, some countries are lifting restrictions and even the European Union has even hinted at reopening for previously vaccinated American travelers. The question therefore arises: can the dire situation in India become a major problem for the rest of the world?

How big is the crisis in India?

In February, as daily Covid-19 deaths numbered in the hundreds and new cases per day hovered around 12,000, many in India had reason to believe the country had managed to escape the worst of the pandemic. But gradually, they began to see how reported infections were on the rise, surpassing those at the highest point of the first wave (93,000 per day).

This is how the current crisis was reached, so sudden that it went from 200,000 infections confirmed in mid-April to more than 350,000 this week. The dead have also multiplied. On average, 2,336 people died each day during the week ending April 25, double the deaths in the worst part of the first wave.

“India is clearly in trouble,” notes BBC Health and Science correspondent James Gallagher. “The palpable fear reminds me of the start of the pandemic, when the coronavirus was still an unknown disease.” “Covid-19 can be fatal even with perfect medical care, but when hospitals are overwhelmed, lives are lost that could have been saved,” he adds.

The situation is particularly dire in New Delhi, where there are no longer any beds in intensive care units (ICUs). Many hospitals are turning away new patients, and at least two of them have died after oxygen supplies ran out.

Relatives of people who have contracted the virus are asking for help on social media to secure space in hospitals, oxygen supplies and ventilators. The picture is even more complicated as the labs are also crowded and test results take up to three days to be delivered. During this time, the crematoria must perform the 24 hours a day.

Similar scenes occur in other major cities. In total, India has confirmed nearly 17 million infections and 192,000 deaths since the start of the pandemic. But it is very likely that these figures are lower than the reality. The country’s huge population and logistical challenges make it very difficult to conduct massive Covid-19 tests or accurately record deaths, making it much more difficult to know the exact extent of the crisis in India compared to those that Europe or Europe have passed through. States, for example.

How difficult can the situation become?

For Gallagher, “unfortunately, in the coming weeks the situation will worsen considerably”. “One lesson, learned time and time again, is that an increase in cases leads to an increase in deaths a few weeks later,” he says. Even if India could stop the spread of the virus overnight, deaths would continue to increase exponentially, because many people have already been infected. And there is no sign that the infections will stabilize, ”says the journalist.

Gallagher points out that whether or not the increase in cases will depend on the success of the closures and the vaccination rate.

India does not have the highest number of cases or deaths on record. The United States reported about 32 million infections and 572,000 deaths as of April 26, according to data compiled by Johns Hopkins University. It is also not at the top of the list of infections or deaths per million population. Much of Europe and Latin America recorded higher margins. But it is the size of India’s population and the dramatic increase in cases and deaths that are causing so much concern.

“We have never seen a situation like this, in which the health system is unable to cope with the scale of the numbers in the context of a sharp and continuous increase in new infections”, explains Gautam Menon, professor of physics and biology and expert in models for measuring infectious diseases.

When health services collapse, many more people die of all causes. These are deaths that are not reflected in the coronavirus statistics. In addition, healthcare providers in India face the challenge of reaching their vast population and as a result, many in this country have no access to healthcare.

What does this mean for the rest of the world?

The pandemic is a global threat, it is known. From the very early days, scientists and health experts have followed the way the infection moves from country to country, mainly due to air travel and a highly globalized world economy. So far, national borders have represented a very limited obstacle to the spread and it has proved almost impossible to impose travel bans and close access indefinitely.

So, what happens in India is likely to spread around the world, especially since the country has the the largest diaspora on the planet. James Gallagher believes that “the pandemic has taught us that a country’s problem is everyone’s problem.”

“The coronavirus was first detected in a city in China and now it’s everywhere. The record number of cases in India could spread to other countries, so many have already introduced travel restrictions. And these high levels of infection are fertile ground for new variants, ”he says.

Is a new threat born in India?

Conditions in India can be very bad news for the global fight against Covid-19. “The large population and its density are a perfect incubator for this virus to mutate,” says Ravi Gupta, professor of clinical microbiology at the University of Cambridge. If time is allowed for the virus to mutate under such conditions “idealsCould dramatically lengthen and increase the severity of the pandemic around the world.

“The more opportunities the virus has to mutate, the more likely it is to find a way to infect even people who have been vaccinated,” adds James Gallagher. New variants from the UK, Brazil and South Africa have already caused problems during this pandemic, which has spread around the world.

Professor Menon believes that this danger is latent with India and underlines that “it is really impossible to limit the spread of the variants”. “The B.1.617 variant (which was first identified in India) has already been found in several countries and probably arrived as an imported virus,” he explains. The expert warns that the mutations and evolutions will continue and will constitute an obstacle to immunity which may lead to infection or prior vaccination.

The question now is how quickly this could happen. “We know that Covid-19 can mutate to reach a higher transmissibility from our observation of the multiple variants around the world. So far, we believe vaccines should continue to be effective against these newer variants, but that may change in the future, ”says Menon.

How can India (and the rest of the world) stop the spread? International efforts are already underway to help India deal with its severe oxygen shortage and tackle the devastating increase in cases. The UK has started shipping ventilators and oxygen concentrators, while the US has lifted the ban on shipping some raw materials overseas, allowing India to produce more AstraZeneca vaccines. Several countries are also offering to send medical personnel and equipment to help.

The Indian government has approved plans to set up more than 500 oxygen production plants across the country and have more supplies. But these are measures to try to prevent death, not infection. Experts say the world needs a dramatic increase in India’s capacity to immunize its population and prevent the spread of the virus.

In its favor, the country argues that it is a powerhouse when it comes to vaccine manufacturing. It runs a mass vaccination program, produces 60% of the world’s vaccines, and is home to half a dozen major manufacturers. “A large-scale vaccination program for adults against a virulent pathogen such as SARS-Cov2, the virus that causes Covid-19, poses unprecedented challenges,” according to Soutik Biswas, BBC correspondent in India.

India’s vaccination campaign, the world’s largest, began on January 16 and aims to reach 250 million people by July. It is estimated that around 118 million people received a first dose through April, representing less than 9% of the population.

Initially limited to health workers and frontline staff, the massive plan has been scaled up in stages to reach people over 45. But the scale of the task of immunizing such a large population and the logistical and infrastructure challenges posed by the country continue to complicate the deployment. Therefore, it is emphasized that the vaccination campaign needs to be accelerated much more to achieve its goals.

“It is not known whether the country has enough vaccines and state capacity to accelerate and expand coverage to include young people,” Biswas says.

Until such a large population is successfully vaccinated, India poses a risk to everyone. “The problem of infectious diseases like Covid-19 is not the concern of a single nation or even a small group of nations. It is truly global in its implications, ”says Professor Menon. “We need more international cooperation in testing, vaccines and research for the many people», He concludes.

As public health officials and politicians have said since the early days of the pandemic, “No one is safe until everyone is safe.”

BBC Mundo

Conocé The Trust Project