Is the Chinese population shrinking? Beijing withholds 2020 census data, suspicions of historic decline increase

China’s population grew last year, the Beijing Bureau of Statistics reported on Thursday. an apparent attempt to quell reports that he had fallenBut the authorities did not specify from which year the figures increased.

The newspaper Financial Times published on Tuesday that China was to report that its the population fell below 1.4 billion last year compared to 2019, the first decline in five decades, citing people familiar with the subject.

The National Statistics Office has delayed the publication of the results of the census carried out in 2020 – which is carried out once every 10 years –, without any explanation, except to say that it required more preparatory work. The results were to be announced in early April.

“According to our understanding, in 2020 the population of our country continued to grow,” said the office of a one-sentence statement. The authority added that detailed figures will be revealed when the census results are released. The unusual decision to respond to information published by the Financial Times This reflects the sensitivity of this issue.

Births in China continued to decline despite a two-child policy that replaced the one-child limit, a rule that lasted for decades and was lifted in 2016 in hopes of increasing the number of babies.

Last year, births fell 15% to 10,035 million since 2019, the Department of Public Safety said.

The 2010 census showed the mainland population to be 1.34 billion. By 2019, that figure had risen to 1.4 billion, the statistics bureau said in February of last year.

The office did not say on Thursday whether 2020 growth was measured from 2019 or 2010, meaning that the population might still have increased from the last decade, but decreased from the previous year.

The population number is very sensitive and will not be released until government departments reach consensus on the data and its implications, the Minister said. Financial Times.

The ruling Communist Party has imposed birth controls to limit population growth since 1980, But a sudden drop would reduce the labor force at a time when it tries to sustain growth and reduce poverty.

An unexpected population decline would force Beijing to take swift action to encourage people to have more children and prevent an irreversible decline.

In recent months, state media have said the population may start to decline in the next few years. In 2016, Beijing set a goal of increasing the population to around 1.42 billion by 2020.

The last drop in Chinese population dates back to 1959 and 1961, when Mao Zedong’s Great Leap Forward campaign failed, which caused widespread famines.

China’s population has long been expected to peak and decline in line with trends in South Korea and other developing economies in Asia. But the researchers point out that in China, that decline may begin before it reaches its income levels.

Developed economies like Japan and Germany are trying to find the formula to support aging populations with a declining workforce. But they can take advantage of decades of investing in factories, technology and foreign assets, when China has less wealth and its industries need a young workforce.

With information from Reuters and AP

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