From Madrid to Buenos Aires, the lessons of a pandemic vote

Isabel Diaz Ayuso, the new star of Spanish politics, founded the campaign which led her to shave yesterday in the regional elections in Madrid on the simplicity of a single word: “freedom”.

His example resonates in half the world and This is the result of an urgent analysis in the offices of Argentine politics, another country that is considering decisive elections in the uncertain landscape of the second year of the pandemic. Ayuso offered himself to the Spaniards over the past 14 months as a crusade against bans imposed by the virus as it claimed the lives of thousands. He had the political capacity to successfully install the idea that a battle is being waged in Spain between those who want to lock up the people – the government of socialism with the radical left of Can we– and those who insist on breaking the chains.

From May 2020 Ayuso, president of the The community of Madrid, endorsed with militant fervor the protests and the cacerolazos against the confinement. He fought to keep the bars open, as an identity feature of the city that should not be resigned due to death from an illness. He rebelled in October against a decree that forced the capital and several peripheral municipalities to close in the face of the second wave of infections. From the start, he took the flag of face-to-face classes, although Spain was one of the countries with the fewest closed school days after having suffered like few other countries in the world from the pandemic.

His rivals did not see it coming. A decision poorly thought out and worse executed by the socialist president Pedro Sanchez In order to topple the government of the small, transcendent region of Murcia, he encouraged Ayuso in March to advance Madrid’s elections by two years, fearing they would try to oust her with a parliamentary no-confidence motion. What happened? Ayuso more than doubled its seats and destroyed the parties of the left-wing coalition that rules Spain with the granite support of a population that does not want to know more about the pandemic.

This is the thunderous signal that Sánchez ignored. And much more his ally Pablo Iglesias, founder of Podemos, who left the vice-presidency of Spain to compete in these elections for the post of regional deputy and came to an inappropriate fifth place.

They wanted to confront Ayuso with scientific arguments and personal disqualifications, emphasizing his disruptive style. She is a leader made by walking, 42 years old, a journalist by profession, absolutely unknown barely two years ago and who is far from the heroine of liberalism that many from afar believe they notice in her.

She came to the government in Madrid as an accidental candidate two years ago. It was an emergency alternative to stop the advance of the xenophobic ultra-right of VOX. the People’s Party (PP) I was looking for a Donald Trump, not an Emmanuel Macron. I wanted to find a new face to turn the page after the fall of the former regional president, Cristina Cifuentes placeholder image, known worldwide since the release of a security video in which she was caught stealing beauty creams from a supermarket.

The pandemic has made the inexperienced Ayuso an emblem of leftist resistance. He has been able to connect with a very large sector of society that does not want a state that has too much in its life. With health restrictions, but also with taxes: Sánchez announced increases to companies, the highest wages and the great fortunes to finance a record expenditure of 196 billion euros in 2021.

Ayuso provided argumentative strength along with self-confidence. He proudly sits on the right, sparing famous phrases like the day he said: “When they call you fascist you know you’re fine. You are on the right side of history ”. His posters adorn the windows of bars and taxis; workers who think of a paycheck at the end of the month identify it as their advocate.

His rivals got stuck in the quagmire of ideological debate, which excused Ayuso from defending his health management in front of the electorate. The Madrid region, which suffered significantly from hospital overflow in 2020, accumulates 20% of infections and deaths in Spain, with 14% of the country’s population (6.8 million).

Quick comparisons have emerged on this side of the Atlantic. The most obvious refers to the success of a local leader standing before the national authority. There, as here, the management of the coronavirus fell into the dynamics of the crack. But it is important not to overlook the nuances. Neither Ayuso is Horacio Rodríguez Larreta -difficult to imagine two more different political and personal profiles- even Pablo Iglesias is not an imitator of Kirchnerism, no matter how much he recites the same existential populism textbooks (Can anyone imagine Cristina Kirchner resigning from all her posts after an electoral failure, without blaming anyone other than himself as the Podemos leader did?).

That said, it’s clear that Ayuso’s success contains a message they’ve already read carefully in Casa Rosada and opposition bunkers: Social satiety with restrictions is paid for by those who impose them.

Larreta has never lost attention to the electoral variable of his face-to-face class battle, a pivotal episode in national politics over the past four weeks and which culminated yesterday with the Supreme Court ruling in favor of the autonomy of Buenos Aires.

When Kirchnerism bleeds to death in its powerlessness to have forced it to close classrooms, it does so with the polls in hand. They need Larreta at the forbidding table. When Axel Kicillof He threatens to hold him responsible for the dead to come reveals his urgency to unify the geography of what is forbidden on either side of General Paz.

Alberto Fernandez, who peaked in popularity as a protective father when the virus entered, is deflating as his image associates with the padlock and chains.

Like his Spanish friend Sánchez, Fernández carries the weight of statistics. With obvious nuances, the two countries show a very high number of infections and deaths, a strong impact on the economy and employment and are not moving at the speed promised with the vaccination plan.

Madrid voted amid a lockdown in force that includes a curfew from 11 p.m. to 6 a.m., the closure of stores at these times and capacity limits for gourmet establishments, under the state of alert set up by the central government. Sánchez called for a “record mobilization to stop on the right” and will shed tears for answered prayers. He voted 76% of the register – historical maximum -, but the turnaround favored Ayuso. The new voters did not come to arrest him but to ask him to continue the battle. Sánchez was left weakened, with his frayed coalition and with a resurgent and power-hungry opposition.

At Casa Rosada, they have been debating for days what to do with parliamentary elections. Whether it’s to leave everything as it is, to cancel the WWTP or postpone it for a month. It seems that there was a consensus with the opposition to vote in September and November. Now there are only doubts. The economy is a huge question mark, inflation is on the rise, and the necessary vaccines have not yet arrived.

The Madrid mirror adds an unknown: The exhaustion of a second year of fear and confinement can sway voters in ways that do not respond to classic political science variables. One day, citizens say they no longer want a pandemic and vote for who knows how to offer it.