Brazilian scientists warn of deadly third wave from June

An image of a Brazilian hospital on the edge due to the large number of hospitalizations.

American and Brazilian scientists have warned that delayed vaccination and increased social contact could generate a third wave of coronavirus in Brazil from June, after the health collapse experienced between February and April.

According to the journal O Globo, the Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington projected that Brazil could kill 750,000 on August 27, considering 95% of the population wears chin straps.

The same calculation indicates that as of September 21 – the end of winter – 973,000 deaths can be recorded, more than double the 436,000 deaths accumulated so far.

According to Cludio Struchiner, doctor and professor of applied mathematics at Fundacin Getulio Vargas University, the calculation of his peers in the United States is “possible”, although there are still unknown variants, such as vaccines or new strains.

Brazil ended the hospital collapse which, mixed with the P1 variant or the Manaus strain, left a record of deaths in March and April, even shifting the country’s demographic order, with more deaths as many births.

Brazil currently records an average of 1,900 deaths per day and projections indicate that on July 21, if there is a third wave, it could return to a daily average of 3,300 deaths.

President Jair Bolsonaro has called “fools” those who make quarantines decreed by mayors and governors “

Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro against quarantine.

According to a Datafolha survey, only 30% of the country currently maintains social distancing, the lowest level in the entire pandemic.

The same one that the University of Washington indicated was alerted last week by the federal laboratory Fiocruz, which locally develops the AstraZeneca vaccine.

“To avoid the third wave, depend a lot on vaccination, which has already been shown to be effective in reducing deaths and hospitalizations. The idea is to vaccinate 2 million people per day.”said Ethel Maciel, professor at Federal University of Espirito Santo and PhD from Johns Hopkins University.

Brazil has vaccinated 9% of the population with the two doses since January 17, according to the latest official report.