Due to high circulation of coronavirus, another variant could emerge in South America, CDC expert warns

“Due to the high circulation of the coronavirus, another variant could emerge in South America,” warns Juliette Morgan, the regional representative of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) in the United States. Since October of last year, Morgan has headed an office with which the northern country has been trying to strengthen technical cooperation ties to detect threats of microorganisms to public health in time. The emergence of another variant in South America would not be uncommon. In fact, the P.1, better known as the Manaus variant, is already circulating in a dominant fashion., which was detected in December.

In exclusive dialogue with Infobae Via video call from Brasilia, Morgan shared what CDC epidemiologists in South America did when the worrying Manaus variant emerged, and what they will do to find out in the real world whether the variants reduce the effectiveness of various vaccines applied in South America, including those made in China, India and Russia.

Morgan knows the area very well. He speaks Spanish perfectly and uses “vos” when communicating in that language. Although she was born in a small town in California, USA, she lived part of her childhood and youth in Argentina and graduated as a doctor from the University of Buenos Aires in 1997. On May 7, he held a virtual working meeting with Argentina’s Minister of Health, Carla Vizzotti.

Morgan, who has worked at the CDC for 24 years, said the US federal agency is looking to increase technical cooperation with other regions of the world. Previously, there was only one office dealing with the HIV epidemic in Brazil. Since last year, the regional office has been added, which indicates different infectious diseases. “We want to identify opportunities to collaborate and learn together, especially in the situation we find ourselves in, to prevent and respond to all threats to public health in the region,” he said. Infobae.

One of the most interesting axes is the impact of new variants of the coronavirus on the evolution of the pandemic. “In Manaus, Brazil, a very severe first wave of COVID-19 had already been recorded over the past year. The level of immunity was high due to the number of people who contracted the virus. There were some serious publications with data that indicated the antibody level was high, ”he recalls. In January, a work was published in the magazine Science in which it was stated that immunity to the natural infection of the coronavirus had occurred in 76% of the population of Manaus. However, the coronavirus has hit hard again in 2021.

Why have cases declined in Manaus despite high immunity? I ask Infobae. “This is the question we want to answer. In January, six epidemiologists from the CDC in the United States came to Brazil to understand the epidemiological impact of the P.1 variant. Obviously, there are cases of reinfection. We are currently working to find out if the variant is more transmissible and how it is transmitted. We have preliminary data. The transmissibility of the P.1 variant had been calculated on the basis of computer models. These models indicate that this variant would be more transmissible. We have indications that they are correct, ”he said.

The CDC’s work is still in production. “We are carrying out various laboratory studies. There is a temporal coincidence between the variant and the wave of more COVID-19 cases. When the case samples are studied, the prevalence of P-1 is dominant over other circulating variants. In some Brazilian cities, the P.1 variant is present in up to 90% of the samples sequenced ”.

For Morgan, There is no doubt about the impact of the Manaus variant (P.1) on the second wave of the pandemic in South America, which would affect the young population more. “There is enough evidence today,” he remarked, “to say that what we are now seeing in Brazil and, therefore, in neighboring countries, is due to the introduction of a variant that has the ability to be transmitted more easily. Perhaps it can infect people who already have the disease.

What would happen to the effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines after the appearance of the variants of concern? “What we don’t know is whether vaccines are still working. We have this question. Because there is still no evidence of a significant reduction in vaccine effectiveness due to the new variantsMorgan acknowledged.

In the case of the CoronaVac vaccine, developed in China, Brazil and Chile, observed that the doses applied still confer protection against severe forms and mortality in people even if the new variants are already circulating.

The great global concern for variants occurs in scenarios such as South America in which “the introduction of vaccination is very slow.“Morgan argued. The first dose is given and, much later, the second. People receiving the first dose are at risk and do not get the protection that the second dose would give them. “In South America, many viruses replicate and it is able to mutate in a way that dominates the other variants.. This happened in India and Brazil – he stressed -. Therefore, it is important to reduce the circulation of the virus as much as possible and increase vaccination to end the pandemic. During transmission, it is important that people do not share their virus.

More infections increase the chances of more variants and more collapse in hospitals. “When so many people get sick at the same time, the problem is the health system’s ability to respond. The virus will not stop. You have to consider this. If there are no vaccines and high coverage is not happening at the same time, we have to resort to the interventions we used last year. We are tired with them, but we have to understand that the virus does not care if we are tired. Unfortunately, it affects financial situation and mental health. But care must be taken to prevent the health system from collapsing and saving lives, ”he said.

“The situation in South America is serious. We need to do genomic surveillance against the possibility that a new variant emerges. When there is a lot of transmission, there is a greater chance that variations will appear ”. And when would herd immunity be achieved through vaccination around the world? Infobae. Still not known. “What happens in India or Argentina is relevant to everyone. Because we are interconnected “, He said. In the United States, cases of COVID-19 in the elderly have been drastically reduced because more than half of that population is already vaccinated.

The impact of vaccination is significant in reducing the incidence of new cases. “Equal In the United States, there are still many cases of the infected and more than 300 deaths per day. In other words, there is always a transmission. It should be borne in mind that the introduction of a variant could lead to a further increase in casesMorgan said.

The CDC plans to step up research on antibiotic resistance and the pandemic in the region. “We are developing a protocol to assess the effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines in the real world in Chile, Uruguay and Argentina. We can get stronger results by studying different vaccines in different places ”, said Dr Morgan, who at 23 went to Atlanta, US, majoring in infectology and then field epidemiology at the CDC. In this protocol that they are developing for South America, they would include vaccines developed in the United States, England, Russia and China. “We have to know how to make decisions. Everyone wants to know how vaccines work in relation to the variants ”.

The expert also replied about the “million dollar question” in 2021: when does the pandemic end? “”It is possible for COVID-19 to become an endemic disease, like the flu. Every year, we would be vaccinated against the coronavirus, and part of the population would need hospitalization. But it wouldn’t have such a devastating impact as it is today. “, did he declare. “The other alternative is that messenger RNA vaccines against COVID-19 revolutionize the situation. They are incredibly effective. They could also help cancer. If we had a comprehensive strategy, we could limit transmission. But I am a little pessimistic. I think there will be a significant reduction in COVID-19, and that we will be living with the virus for the next few years“.

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