Lula consolidates his chances of winning in the first round …

From Rio de Janeiro

Since he regained “ his political rights, Lula da Silva then led the polls for the 2022 presidential elections. But the survey of DataFolha, of the newspaper NewspaperThis was the first done in person and not over the phone, which allows for better inference of people’s preferences.

In this survey, the pace of Lula’s leadership acceleration soars, with a 23-point advantage over Jair Bolsonaro in the second round: 55 to 32. In the first round, Lula reaches 41%, Bolsonaro drops to 23%.

All others are grouped together, from 7% down, confirming that, The more Lula consolidates, the prospects for a certain type of alternative to the two most voted for diminish a lot. 9% would vote white and only 4% would say they are undecided. The fact that this is the first face-to-face survey, which promotes loyalty in people’s opinions, also helps explain Lula’s great advantage.

The biggest rejection is that of Bolsonaro, with 54%, 18 points above that of Lula.

The former president has 56% of the intention to vote in the northeast, confirming that this is their most important support region, as well as those with the lowest incomes. In the richest strata, Lula has only 18% support. Among those who received the second emergency aid, Bolsonaro receives only 22% of support. Among the unemployed, Lula is in the majority.

Bolsonaro has more relative support among businessmen, 49%, where Lula only gets 26% support. Lula surpasses Bolsonaro by one point among evangelicals: 34 to 33%. Bolsonaro has more support in men than in women. Lula, more support for women.

Together, the other candidates reach 47%, which is 6 points more than Lula today. With Lula’s strong upward trend and the effect it will have on those candidates with the fewest votes and, even more so, as the campaign grows, Lula has every chance of winning in the first round, as the 2018 polls highlighted.

Research shows how the business community, whose interests are served by the economic policy of Paulo Guedes, it’s the only solid stronghold of support for Bolsonaro, where Lula has the least support.

In the other historical axis of support for Bolsonaro, the evangelicals, Lula neutralizes and triumphs by one point. Even in the southern region, where Bolsonaro trains his best performance, Lula triumphs.

Bolsonaro is having his worst moment since taking office. Now added to the wear and tear from the uncontrolled pandemic, which previously did not fall on him. The genocide only amplifies this attrition.

Added to this is the political reappearance of Lula, who quickly took the head of the polls. Previously, polls pointed to Bolsonaro as the leader and a group of potential candidates lumped together, all far removed from him. Now Lula appears as the preferred franc, putting Bolsonaro’s re-election plan in jeopardy, which tends to unbalance it more and more.

Lula’s first trip to Brasilia showed how the reunion with former allies expresses a great willingness to support his candidacy. These contacts partially undermine Bolsonaro’s support even in the Centrão.

The combination of these factors not only projects a highly likely prospect of Lula’s victory even in the first round, but also reiterates the possibility of Bolsonaro’s impeachment. Because its political future is in jeopardy. The hope of a rescue of Brazil from the current crisis returns with the presence of Lula. The trends of the next polls tend not only to confirm these results, but to widen the difference in favor of Lula.