Much dialogue and little progress with the Monetary Fund

WASHINGTON.- Gerry Rice, Director of Communications, International Monetary Fund (IMF), is used to answering Argentina’s questions at each of its press conferences, which it offers twice a month. Rice tends to value the dialogue with the government of Alberto Fernandez What “productive”, “constructive” O “fluid”, and always avoid talking about interns in the ruling party.

Last time, when asked if the deal could come soon, Rice reiterated that discussions are continuing in a “constructive” manner and remarked, as on previous occasions: “I don’t have specific dates.” The Paris Club demands that there be an agreement with the IMF to refinance its debt. But discussions with the Fund showed little progress, despite the “constructive” dialogues.

The panorama of the Bargaining has changed very little since the start of this year: at United States they hope that, except for an unforeseen event which hastens times, the agreement comes after the elections. The main obstacle appears in Buenos Aires, in the internal and political pressures of the Frente de Todos, and not in the possible requests which could emanate from Washington.

The Minister of the Economy, Martín Guzmán, keep the lines open with Julie Kozack Yes Luis Cubeddu, the two IMF officials in charge of Argentina, since early 2020, when they met for the first time as an official at the Argentine consulate in new York.

Guzmán drew up a roadmap which envisaged, first, an audit of the Argentine economy through an article IV mission, then the design of a new 10-year program to refinance the return of the $ 45 billion that the government of Mauricio macri. None took place.

President Alberto Fernández has said he wants an agreement soon, but nothing is moving. His tour in Europe and his meeting in Rome with the Managing Director of the IMF, Kristalina Georgieva, has left many signs of goodwill in the developed world to help Argentina emerge from the debt mess, underpinned by the emergencies of the coronavirus pandemic.

But the agenda of the IMF and Argentina appears, for the moment, empty: no new mission is planned, neither from the general staff in Buenos Aires, nor from Guzmán in Washington.

The most candid description of the discussions has been provided by Alexander Werner, outgoing director of the Western Hemisphere Fund and one of the architects of the 2018 program that Macri signed in early April during a meeting organized by Standard & Poor’s.

Werner said the Fund was ready to move forward, but the negotiations had dragged on longer than expected and there appeared to be “Significant differences” within the ruling party, and that the reading in the body was that the government preferred to wait until after the election.

This strategy, never officially recognized, raised another question: whether, after the legislative elections, in which the control of Congress could change, the government of Alberto Fernández will have more or less political capital, or more or less the will to shut down a solid program, or if, on the contrary, the result will be a “money laundering” plan which perpetuates the country’s difficulties.

during the government has succeeded in forging a good bond with the White House Joe Biden, which must provide essential support in negotiations with the IMF. If Guzmán – who seems more comfortable with Kozack and Cubeddu than with some of his own officials and political partners – is keeping the lines open with the Fund, the Argentine ambassador, Jorge ArgüelloHe does it with the Biden government and with Congress.

The signs that have emerged from Washington and other capitals point to a smooth path to an agreement. The world already has enough problems. But in Buenos Aires, toxic messages explode.

Guzmán’s weakness worries those who follow the country. The Fund pointed out that it was your interlocutor. The Kirchnerist proclamation of May 25 ended up revealing internal tensions and tensions that could not be hidden from the ruling party, but also showed harsher language, with a nod to a flaw, which Alberto Fernández rejects.

The K Manifesto was read in brackets as an internal message in an election year, but even so, it generated noise and ruled out the possibility of an already languid pre-election deal. Now the next word is for the Paris Club.

Conocé The Trust Project