A bet in the middle of nowhere

It's reluctant, but they need to believe. A part of
businessmen have made efforts in recent days to approach the universe of
Alberto Fernandezin most cases without excessive enthusiasm. Assimilated the new collective failure of a country that, from time to time, is forced to reset its
economy because that does not make it viable, everyone in their own way is looking for alternatives. These are ideological or political contortions derived from the first act reflecting the
establishmentwhich consists in preserving oneself. It may be, they say, for lack of resources and options, the candidate of the
In front of all make a friendly presidency with the creation of wealth. The dream of the Orthodox Peronist. This idea includes a hypothesis that is still impossible to verify: as the sole concern of
Cristina Kirchner they will be their legal causes, they will be limited to a symbolic role and will not hinder the management. In other words, the one who provided the majority of the votes to return to power is resigned not to exercise it.

It's a bet in the middle of nowhere. The day before yesterday, at the meeting with the liaison office, Alberto Fernández left the agriculture officials a map with his mobile phone. A message to the sector that resists most on the return of Cristina Kirchner: the interlocutor will be himself. Producers are forced to forget the 2008 conflict. It is true that in this crisis the chief of staff at the time was engaged in the search for an agreement to which neither one nor the other neither the other of his two chiefs wished. This is one of the reasons for his resignation, which occurred in the midst of these discussions and in circumstances he never admitted in public: in the hours following the session of the Congress during from which Cobos voted against resolution 125, Fernández strove that the marriage to the presidency did not take a radical decision close to the concrete: to give up power. He called, for example, Marco Aurelio García, Brazilian Minister of Foreign Affairs, to ask him to propose to Lula to convince Cristina Kirchner not to resign. Garcia agreed and, a few moments later, he contacted him again to tell him that the Brazilian head of state had tried three times, but that they were not answering the phone. Fernandez also urged Parrilli to ask Hebe de Bonafini and Estela de Carlotto the same. It is not clear if these efforts allowed the president not to leave. Witnesses recall that this result had made Néstor Kirchner an enemy of the head of the government, who began calling him without success in El Calafate during the following weekend. And this precipitated the resignation of Fernandez, to whom the president of the time came to ask, shouting not to leave. Then he replaced it with Mbada.

This story, more or less known in the political world, is the most credible letter that the Front of All candidate must convince the institution that it will not be easily influenced. It is true that almost everything has changed since this conflict. For the moment, Cristina Kirchner ended her political emancipation with the death of her husband two years later. But then Fernandez and the businessmen envisioned the power of the same place: from the outside.

That is why it is hard to imagine how they can share power if they win in October. This is what the market and entrepreneurs fear. "I'm not able to return to Roberto Baratta's waiting room: I'm going to hire a manager or I'm going to live outside," said the shareholder. Services Society. The production sectors are cheaper. The industrialists of the province of Buenos Aires, for example, have decided to start taking seriously the proposals of Axel Kicillof, whom they have just added as guests to the celebration of the sectoral day next week. in Costa Salguero. They received it Wednesday to agree on the details of his presentation, which will take place at the end of the event, and they again heard the usual concepts: the candidate for the position of governor told them about "the industricide" which, he said, had committed
Macri In recent years, he defended the DJAI and the actions: in case of capital flight, he said, it is necessary to restrict the capital account.

The main results have also changed the content of old personal relationships in the business world. The leaders who, just three weeks ago, seemed to be condemned to a unique presence, returned to gravitation, for example in the Argentine Industrial Union. Tuesday, off protocol and after the meeting of the executive committee, members of the industrial group, the most protectionist current of the manufacturing plant, remained to leave their proposals to the president, Miguel Acevedo. Some names are again relevant: Jose Ignacio de Mendiguren, Juan Carlos Lascurain, Guillermo Moretti, Carlos Garrera.

This new paradigm is based not only on the uncertain possibility of an upcoming government with a bias for the industrialists, but also on a concept that is easier to predict: a Peronist administration is always more likely to deindex the model. That is, to convince the unions to wait for the resumption of
salaries in front of
l & # 39; inflation. Prevented from doing
settings or
structural reforms and prey to his
budget deficit, Argentina goes back to the problem that occurs every five years: how to generate the money needed to finance public spending? Its delay lies in this unresolved problem. The country, which had managed to double its
GDP per capita In the decade following the collapse of 2002, it could not grow from 2012. Peru has managed to triple it in the last 15 years.

It is now easy to say that Macri underestimated this structural weakness in the same way that he overestimated his power to undertake reforms. What began to be discussed this week is part of the same problem: Alberto Fernández needed the president to pay the political cost of
reschedule debt and liquefy part of the deficit. This process is inherent in the wear and tear of your electoral opponent, who will surely attempt to weaken it again, warning that, for example, freed up dollars that he has reserved to pay the deadlines. he stands up again. "He must count the days," smiles the Front of All candidate, reminding him that Macri said for the remaining 59 days,
choice the collaboration of all was necessary. This is another delay in Argentina: its leaders count in days problems that history records for decades or centuries. It is understandable that entrepreneurs prefer to adapt to meager horizons.