A breath of fresh air in the neighborhood | The area …

Former Brazilian President Lula da silva he was dismissed from his post, he was released, he began to regain ground. Legal incidents will continue, legal systems are Kafkaesque. The political shock creates a system with the realities of other sister countries in South America and ours. There are variations, intense local colors. The resounding similarities give the lie to those who deny the offensive against the popular leaders in the region.

* Lula was persecuted by Sergio Moro, a partial and strictly incompetent prosecutor. He had him prosecuted and convicted in an irregular jurisdiction. Eventually, it was revealed that Moro had conspired to exclude Lula from political competition. They imprisoned him and outlawed him. Moro received a ministry from current President Jair Bolsonaro. Then they were separated by an internal quarrel, from a building. The alliance had already borne fruit.

* Former Bolivian President Evo Morales ousted in bloody coupThey wanted to imprison him and possibly try his life. The active solidarity of Alberto Fernández (president elected but not assumed) and Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador prevented the movement from being carried out. Autocrat Janine Áñez banned Evo, there were elections, MAS won with Luis Arce as a candidate.

* Former Ecuadorian President Rafael Correa was armed with court cases, he was banned. His party stood for election, with Manuel Arauz as a candidate. He scored in the first round, the waiver remains open and open.

By the end of the last term, Correa had won a fair election. But his strength was driven from power by a betrayal of President Lenin Moreno, a sinister figure worthy of being portrayed by Shakespeare.

* Peronism was defeated in clean elections by former President Mauricio Macri. Judicial persecution against Vice President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner has escalated and is not stopping, promoted by the coalition between PRO, Radicalism and the Civic Coalition. The rush to ban has intensified from 2017. It benefits from the active solidarity of members of the Supreme Court, federal judges and prosecutors, and the mainstream media. They failed to break the will of the CFK: United Peronism returned to Casa Rosada in 2019.

Photos of court judge Ricardo Lorenzetti, the late Federal Judge Claudio Bonadio and Moro fraternizing and laughing, cheers at the U.S. Embassy help paint the picture.

The return of Lula, Evo, Cristina expresses a reflux of which it would be premature to measure the extent. In any case, a healthy political backlash, the resilience of the leaders, the activism, the stubborn defense in the courts playing on muddy ground. The disasters caused by the right-wing rulers have cooperated intensely and unwittingly. Áñez and Lenin Moreno were beaten at the polls by citizens of their respective nations.

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No to the FTAA, outside the IMF: A little over 15 years ago, at the top of Mar del Plata, Lula da Silva and the late President Néstor Kirchner led the No to the FTAA with their Venezuelan counterpart, Hugo Chávez. His colleagues from Uruguay and Paraguay joined him. Mercosur has been completely planted.

Very soon after, Lula and Kirchner finalized the debt reduction vis-à-vis the International Monetary Fund (IMF). At this point it was discussed whether they had agreed to do so in unison and the Brazilian continued. Or if they had arranged the order of appearance according to the specific gravity of Brazil. This columnist accepted both versions at the time. Details of the chronicle which lose their density in retrospect. It was completed by the two leaders, the two countries. A great sign to gain political autonomy.

Macri turned that tortilla upside down. Query overwhelmed Argentina.

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To remedy this, there is time: Macri, a regional ally, had to be given a helping hand. It was implemented in violation of the Fund’s rules in tandem with Argentine laws. The domestic debt that was supposed to be paid was not reshaped, it also opened the doors to currency flight.

In off-off an international civil servant jokes or not so much: “I know Nicolás Dujovne (at the time Minister of the Economy), he is a good guy. But Would you like to get in an Uber driven by Nico? Page / 12 would decline. The Macri administration entrusted him with a pharaonic fleet of trucks filled with dollars.

Alberto Fernández and the Minister of the Economy Martín Guzmán want to pay the debt but not at the expense of the future of Argentines. First, there has to be a growth in GDP, an increase in consumption that makes it more dynamic, a relative improvement in the income of workers compared to the profits of companies.

Guzmán is going to Washington before the end of the month. The IMF authorities are expecting it, surely from officials of the US Treasury. An essential task, for this he was vaccinated. The presence continues to weigh on politics, confirmed by Pope Francis’ trip to Iraq.

Rumors about the desired date to close the deal are swelling the media agenda. Soon, in winter, after the elections? In Olivos and in economics, they relativize these data. “When we insisted on private companies, they pressured us saying that if we didn’t close in March, it would be the end of the world, so it ran from April to May …”

The agreement must have characteristics in common with this one. A long term without disbursement to calm the economy (emblematic sentence of Guzmán). And, we add, “buy” governance.

The maximum ten-year period of the Extended Facility Agreements is short for Argentina’s possibilities. Changing this regulation in a particular way seems impossible. That it be recalculated in general, taking into account the global health emergency, is a glimmer of hope. We underline the diminutive.

The partners of the Fund, the richest in mind, will decide. The position of the American president, Joe biden, that will be crucial. Within the ruling party, optimism is not widespread, just a modest diagnosis: “Worse than Trump won’t be”. Fernández will continue to engage with his peers around the world trying to build a global consensus. Guzmán can travel to other central countries.

The deadlines are not suffocating but they are squeezing a piece. In 2021, there are debt maturities with the IMF and the Paris Club. Affecting reserves would put Argentina in a hole just as they start to recover.

For now, you need to trade stealthily. When negotiating, it is not advisable to show all the cards, to give up a lot in the first visteos. Everything above the table but under the cone of silence.

The legal complaint against former members of the Macri administration, led by Mauricio, adds complexity to the menu, without being the main course. This will add an argument during the pulse. The Fund broke its rules for Macri’s benefit, symmetrically it could – should rectify them so Argentina pays without dying in the attempt.

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Professional misconduct and crime: In the message to Congress, Alberto Fernández warned that those responsible for the agreement signed by Macri would be criminally denounced. The choir on the right cries out to heaven. “It is a political decision, not subject to prosecution.” It would be positive the turn, if it existed, of those who pursue everything, on a daily basis.

“Doesn’t that equal the future dollar criminal case?” they innovate, quibble, brag about not being informed. This may not be the case. Management misconduct is not a crime, regardless of the damage it causes. But if the officials violated national and international laws to carry out the action, there may be.

In this situation, they violated national law. Macri solved his soul alone, without going through Congress neither before nor after the donation. In addition, the IMF’s partner country rigged an arrangement that violated the rules of the international organization. The note published yesterday in this newspaper signed by Alfredo Zaiat adds the outrages and violations committed.

The complaint of the Anticorruption Office (OA) adds to these proven facts the possible collusion of interests with individuals who made money by fleeing capital. He literally claims “to know if there were any connections between officials and buyers (of foreign currency to escape) and if they could use inside information – and who provided it – to secure those profits.” Influence peddling, false pacts can characterize crimes, if evidence is obtained energetic. The work will fall to the prosecutors or judges of Comodoro Py.

To survive in a flawed media environment and a vicious justice system, perhaps redundant clarifications must be formulated. Crimes are not presumed, they must be proven. For any suspect or accused, the presumption of innocence prevails. Pre-trial detention without conviction is an extreme exception and never regulates… a prerogative exercised in recent years with the consent of academics, opinion leaders and opposition leaders. Under suspicion, yes. Benefiting from all the constitutional guarantees which they refused to their adversaries.

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Inequalities and fresh air: The pandemic has accentuated inequalities in the world and in Argentina. The magnates of the planet and this country are concentrating more and more wealth. The most powerful countries are stockpiling vaccines. A handful of them can decide Argentina’s fate at the IMF.

Health disasters in Brazil and Paraguay threaten Argentina. Any infections could impact its future growth. Transport restrictions are a reasonable but perhaps insufficient precaution when borders are very long.

In a worrying and largely unpredictable context, it should be noted that Macri, Añez and Bolsonaro are allies, they express similar projects.

The Argentinian government has adopted the best possible measures with regard to Lula and Evo, which are rather played out in the case of the Bolivian leader.

Political struggles continue, the fresh air that arrived from 2019 from Argentina, Brazil, Bolivia and Ecuador can get addicted. Either way, the reappearance of Lula, the humble nursery turner who has become re-elected president of a regional power, is a happy event. It is worth celebrating, in a less auspicious world, in general.

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