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18/07/2018
After what happened this year with the exchange rate, its relationship with consumer prices has varied compared to what happened in previous years.
It must be remembered that there was December 2015 an official dollar that was clearly ironed by the intervention of the Bank Central cited $ 9.75 and a blue that was around 14 pesos.
Prior to this phase one of the first measures adopted by the Minister of Finance and Finance of the time Alfonso Prat Gay was the release of the exchange rate, so that the price of the currency soared to $ 13.95 which implied a devaluation of the order of 43%.
The official argument disputed by many private sector badysts, was that most prices were already calculated on the basis of listing in the marginal segment and that is why the transfer would be very small.
The first impact of the measure was an inflation for December of this year from 3.9% as then reported by the so-called 'L & B Index' Congress inflation ", given the marked deficiencies of the Indec in the preparation of the indicator.
Then, over the months, the exchange rate remained the same time that inflation did its job, ending in 2016 with increases of respectively 21% and 40%, .
Despite this, the dollar was showing still a margin in his favor of the order of 14% which over the months was diluted end last year with an advantage of only 7%. This due to an advance of 17% dollar against 25% of inflation . [1945900] 5] But from this year, this ratio was seen substantially modified, at least until now, since in the first dollar advanced from ]] 48% while prices increased "only" 17%.
As a result of this evolution rather than the equatorial, in [319derniersmois] an advance of exchange rate slightly lower than 190% against a price to consumption which climbed a 112 percent.
From the comparison of the two indicators, it seems that the dollar is 37% higher than the current moment of Assumption of Mauricio Macri as president of the nation .
With this percentage, the actual ipo exchange is the most competitive of the last eight years, only comparable to the recorded in 2010.
"Devaluation was stronger than that of 2014 and 2016 episodes in which subsequent inflation overrode the favorable effects on export. Inflation behavior may be different, but this should be corroborated in practice, "they say of IERAL.
But looking at what happened in recent months, this situation can not be projected in the future, not only because of what can happen with money but also because of the advance of inflation.
"When we look at the historical series, the current exchange rate resembles, on average, those of 2007-2008, when we did not have a current account deficit ", said Guido Lorenzo of ACM.
"One could thus say that the exchange rate is competitive" he adds, but warned by an old acquaintance: the relay, c & # 39; ie inflation
Today, says Lorenzo, we have a new exchange rate but old prices and adds: "I would like see how the type of real change when all the repercussion occurs. "
For its part, the economist Federico Muñoz adds that Argentina is no longer so expensive in dollars. He comes to this conclusion by comparing prices with other countries in the region on a fixed consumption basket, which includes both goods and services.
"The updated survey shows us a remarkable turning point: the Argentine baskets ] in all categories they were cheaper around 35% in dollars compared to 2017 and our country ceased to be the most expensive of the sample "explains Muñoz.
" In simple terms, after the trading period of the last few months we have ceased to be "expensive in dollars", limits and extends: "The competitiveness of our tradable goods producers has improved considerably . "
It must also be said, it clarifies," that our dollar income was substantially reduced, from perhaps an unsustainable reality. "
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