A coup, keys to understanding the current crisis in Tunisia | After President Kais Saied impeached Prime Minister and suspended Parliament for 30 days

The institutional crisis that Tunisia has been going through since President Kais Saied will delete to Prime Minister Hichem Mechichi and suspend the Parliament for 30 days It seemed to worsen this Wednesday with the opening of an investigation for alleged illegal funding of parties. Tunisian judiciary spokesman Mohsen Dali said investigations affect funding from abroad and acceptance of donations for the election campaigns of Ennahda, Qalb Tunes and Ich Tunsi, the main parliamentary forces from the country. The announcement came a day after Ennahda leader and congressman Rachid Ghanuchi accused President Saied of delivering “a blow to the constitution and institutions”.

The massive protests last weekend in different parts of the country were working for Saied and his decision to to reject around twenty senior officials of the State and of the Presidency of the Government, in addition to Prime Minister Mechichi, very resisted by his handling of the coronavirus pandemic, which has led the country to be one of the nations with the highest death rate in the world.

“The presidential decrees are undoubtedly an effective blow against the democratic institutions of Tunisia. The only legal way for the president was to go back to parliament and ask for a change of government, but he didn’t., dialogue with PageI12 Omair Anas, researcher at the Al-Mesbar Study Center. Many political parties and analysts describe Saied’s attitude as a coup, while others register it in the confrontation of the president with the various powers of the State.

In any case, the crisis surprised this young democracy born after the revolution which overthrew Zine el Abidine Ben Ali in January 2011, generally presented as the only successful one of the Arab Spring.

A crisis with multiple causes

Although the Tunisian Constitution does not authorize the dissolution of Parliament, it ratifies the suspension of its functions for a period of 30 days.. “The Tunisian Parliament authorizes such steps for an extraordinary situation, but this is stipulated by many conditions which ensure the democratic character of the country”, specifies Anas, who adds: “In this case, Saied said he consulted with the Speaker of Parliament and the Prime Minister, as required by law, but the two leaders deny.“.

TO Gaston Toselli, a member of the Middle East Studies Program at the Center for Advanced Studies at the National University of Cordoba, Tunisia is undoubtedly facing a coup. “Saied bypasses parliament and rules by decree with the approval of unions, security forces and part of civil societyWhile at the moment many actors are waiting and there are still few protesting loudly. The international reaction is in the same direction, even if the situation turns to a repressive escalation, I think the scenario will quickly turn against the president.“Note Toselli.

In addition to the political crisis, there is the health crisis, since Tunisia has broken records for covid-19 infections in recent days. And economically, the weight of public debt on GDP has fallen from 45% in recent years to around 100% today. The country is negotiating its fourth loan with the IMF as poverty and unemployment rise, especially among young people.

Saied’s presidency

Kais saied, an academic in constitutional law who had never participated in political life before being elected Tunisian president in 2019, came to power opposing political and economic elites. Nicknamed “Robocop” for its rigidity and monotonous tone, Saied has never hidden his dissatisfaction with the limited margin of power that the Constitution grants the head of state, whose only competences are the external relations and the direction of the armed forces.

Toselli defines President Saied as a “Foreign” to the political establishment. “Many see him as a strong political figure capable of avoiding the pettiness of national power groups. The key will be whether Saied will function as a catalyst for much needed change or whether he will be the protagonist of a process of concentration of public power.“, notes the expert.

For its part, Anas acknowledges that Saied “has great credentials” although “he was never a full time politician”. The professor of international relations at Yildirim Beyazit University in Ankara, Turkey, adds that the president “does not have a personal charisma like that of some dictators in Africa, does not have strong support from the military or has no popular base “and warns that “a weak president is the best candidate for external manipulators”.

From the Arab Spring to the present day

Tunisia began its democratic transition in 2011 with the so-called “Jasmine Revolution” which ended two decades of the dictatorship of Zine El Abidine Ben Ali. From that moment ten democratic transitional governments followed. The October 2019 legislatures gave way to the most fragmented parliament in history, with more than 30 parties in the Assembly of Representatives, an aspect that made it impossible to reach agreements.

A little over ten years after the Arab Spring, Toselli underlines that the country continues to suffer from serious structural problems in economic matters: “The inequality of economic development between the different regions presents a coastal north, cosmopolitan and developed compared to the rural south, relegated and neighbor of a country in deep crisis like Libya, whose displaced people see Tunisia as a bridge to reach Europe. ”

For its part Anas Submits that “politically and socially Tunisia has made good progress and the country’s political culture has become more democratic and transparent ”and underlines that “Those who lived under the Ben Ali dictatorship recognize the difference.” The researcher argues that democratic transitions have been largely successful and consensual: “This has led to the emergence of a strong civil society and political leadership which gives reason to believe that any coup attempt could not not succeed in the country.