Naaju Breaking News, Live Updates, Latest Headlines, Viral News, Top Stories, Trending Topics, Videos
[ad_1]
In the central bank they were breathing relieved with the result in dollars in November of three data relating to reserves, dollar savings and deposits of people in US currency.
The “net” trading result for the month was negative at 325 million USD, which is a significant drop from the more than $ 1,200 million or more of the previous ones.
Added to this is the low sales volume of save a dollar (the US $ 200 quota), which added only US $ 165 million throughout the month.
The tightening of the forex market has significantly reduced both the number of buyers and the volume. Remember that in August there were almost 5 million buyers for a total of 1,200 million US dollars.
The third piece of information to consider is that dollar term deposits they remained stable in November.
With these three data, and an eye on the possible influx of dollars from wheat exports (one worries about the strike of the port), in the environment of Miguel Angel Pesce, they consider that the situation of instability of the exchange rate which peaked when the blue bill hit $ 195.
Supported by the letter from Vice President Cristina Kirchner who placed the dollar problem as the main one in economic matters, the government, and in particular Minister Martín Guzmán, quickly aligned themselves and went further in ensuring that exchange rate instability was due to excess weight who has the economy.
In November, dollar purchases of savings fell to US $ 165 million.
Since the stabilization of the dollar has its cost (everything in the economy has it), and the minister began to weave a network aimed at calm devaluation expectations that had been forged in the heat of a exchange difference (distance between the official dollar and the free dollar) exceeding 100%.
It was the belief that achieving some stability with this level of dollar spread was a mission impossible.
Thus, the Central Bank accelerated in November the Rhythm increase in the official wholesale dollar, increased by 3.3%, by seeking not to be far behind the 3.8% retail inflation in October and by honoring the official commitment that the dollar will henceforth rise at the rate of inflation, which is one of the news keys to Guzmán’s tactics.
How will the official dollar continue this month? Probably increasing a little less. In economics, they bet that the cost of living in November will be in the range of 3% and no more, and therefore the dollar will follow a little.
But the peace would change, reflected in a $ 156 parallel dollarIt responded to much more than a central bank-imposed devaluation rate hike, and the framework was supplemented in the form of orthodox and other measures.
Among the Orthodox was the strong offer of treasury bills to withdraw pesos from the market following the Guzmán doctrine. Thus, there were placements of securities linked to the appreciation of the official dollar (linked to the dollar) of US $ 1,700 million and US $ 1,500 million.
To this have been added the locations of indexed bonds by inflation (CER, reference stabilization coefficient). Of the $ 2.2 trillion in peso debt with the private sector, 47% is pegged to the CER and 17% to the exchange rate, linked to the dollar.
And we must add what we could consider as the strawberry of the dessert which was the dollarization of debt in pesos to allow the outflow of foreign investment funds for US $ 1,500 million in two tenders, one already held and the other on December 15.
Getting the most pesos out of the market has paid off for Guzmán, but now there’s a big question mark over December when bonus commitments and end-of-year expenses are increasing and the main source of financing the deficit remains the issuance of pesos.
But not only the absorption of the pesos lives the peace of the dollar: the “calls” of the Securities Commission on brokers and exchangers are still present and as a threat. L’Alyc (settlement and clearing agents) remain cautious in the operation with free dollars (Mep and counted with wind up) and it helps calm the place down.
IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva is playing a key role in the negotiations with Argentina. Bloomberg Photo
In short, a little more devaluation, a lot less pesos and the control of operations allowed Guzmán tie, even with wire, some calm exchange which leads to an obvious question: How long does it last?
Without a categorical answer, the official bet is that endurance until agreed with him International Monetary Fund, which would be the main signal for the Central Bank to start making dollars after losing them for so long.
As long as the deal with the IMF comes up (February? Once Janet Yellen takes office at the US Treasury), the official dollar it will run a little behind inflation but in a delicate moment.
The increase in activity due to the relaxation of the quarantine and the expectation generated by the possibility of a vaccine for a large part of the population by the middle of next year, also leads to the inflation goes up a notch.
Meat, fuel, tolls, cigarettes, prepaid payments, and the idea that updated electricity, gas and transportation tariffs will arrive in early 2021, are shaping a new inflationary framework in which the government bet the dollar is not a determining factor. Inflation-dollar-inflation, the formula to get through the summer.
As in Waiting for Godot, the market and the government are waiting for the IMF, will he come?
.
[ad_2]
Source link
