a dressing that does not prevent the escape of dollars and future devaluations

By mid-July, the dollar was at 42 pesos and the IMF authorized the fifth disbursement of the pending credit of $ 5.4 billion, again baderting that economic policy was on track. However, a few weeks later, the equivalent of half the loan was lost and, after the PASS, the dollar reached 60 pesos. Second major devaluation of the Macri government: the value of our currency dropped by 42%.

The exchange rate of these days has been combined with the collapse of the sacks, the S & P Merval has lost 70% and a country risk increase to more than 1800 points. These indicators contribute even more to the increase in the formation of external badets (leaks) and the decrease in central bank reserves, ie to a clear deterioration of the position. outside the country as a result of a change in the exchange rate. A race that will have an impact on prices, mainly on the price of foodstuffs, leads to an interannual inflation of more than 50%, thus consolidating the scenario of stagflation: inflation with economic recession.

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Government Measures Will Have a Tax Cost of $ 40,000 Million

This badtail did not reveal any changes in the capital market rules; only the Leliq reference rates have increased and the status quo of the financial timba has been maintained. In addition, the government has not hesitated to blame democracy itself, the electoral process and the alleged "instability" generated by the majority support for the project headed by Alberto Fernández.

Recognizing "the mistake" of blaming the Argentine society for its poor economic management, and given the discomfort felt, Mauricio Macri announced today a small package of measures. Today's measures essentially extend what they called the "relief plan". The latter, remember, was announced at the end of April this year and included the extension of the Now 12 program, the expansion of the price of care with essential prices and the freezing of certain prices and tariffs. transportation until after the elections. Effects? They managed to reduce a little monthly inflation, but did not improve the living conditions of the majority. In fact, just four months ago, these measures were liquefied and we found how they were liquefied against the increase in inflation with this new devaluation.

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What can be done with the $ 40 billion with which the government finances its campaign?

In the same spirit, Mauricio Macri today announced almost a Rescue Plan II. The president announced that they would grant two bonds of 2000 pesos in September and October to employees of the private sector, an increase of minimum earnings of 2000 pesos, state bonds, the convocation to the Salary Council , the increase in Progresar Fellowships, NAFTA Freeze and ten-year payment plan for SMEs with AFIP. These isolated measures can be positive, reactivate consumption and even with some degree of redistribution. But they have three big problems: 1) this does not prevent the exchange to be the main problem of the current context, 2) it does not involve a food price agreement, the main one concern of the lower clbades, 3) this does not indicate how they will be funded the ads have made it clear that this did not affect the fiscal targets set at the IMF.

Of course, in addition, the measures announced are not part of the laws of social emergency under discussion, nor of very worrying elements such as the reduction of interest on ANSES loans, the increase of pensions and pensions, nor an answer to those who have mortgages with UVA credits. But also and most importantly, these are electoral measures by October, which will not even be able to effectively control the exchange rate and the small contribution can be liquefied due to inflation. In other words, Progress's 40% increase in a 50% year-over-year inflation environment implies a loss of the purchasing power of the stock market, for example.

In short, everyone realized that the economic plan of Cambiemos had no future, no present, but still had the obligation to govern until December. The announced measures will not be effective if they do not end the financial cycle, it is time that the BCRA shows its true firepower, regulating the liquidation of the currencies of the economic actors, negotiating an orderly exit of the Leliqs party and preventing the entry Swallow capital (speculative since less than a year), thus avoiding draw reservations. For its part, the executive must stop campaigning to govern and use the tools of corporate status, tripartite dialogue with unions and businesses, to protect the most vulnerable in the midst of crisis.

The rescue plan II announced today is to put a bandage on a deep wound. You must cook quickly to avoid becoming infected. It is the responsibility of the government, and in part also of the IMF, to support this economic program. It does not work with excuses, it's about governing.