A key IMF mission arrives, worried about the progress of the zero deficit and the electoral race

The quarterly audit of the International Monetary Fund will have its third cycle from Monday, when it will disembark Roberto Cardarelli, the expert in Argentina, with his staff. Although the government is celebrating peace on the exchange rate and lowering rates, the prolongation of the recession leads to lower tax revenues, which ignites yellow lights on one of the pillars of the administration: the zero deficit.

The increase in last month's collection (38%) was lower than inflation. And while growth exceeds primary spending in the middle of the election year, the question is whether the executive will be able to maintain this difference as polls become known.

The seasonal nature of the export liquidation also contributed to the first month of the year, but this is one of the points that may suffer after the first quarter if the official theory is not respected, which marks a recovery of economic activity.

Therefore, one of the doubts of the market is if Dujovne will negotiate a more flexible position of the IMF on the main result. Added to this are the usual criticisms of the fiscal outlook, which exclude the level of debt. "Both the government and the IMF are paying attention only to the primary deficit, that is to the income minus the expenses before the payment of interest, and not to the total financial deficit." as who pays only the minimum card and announces that the budget is balanced "he pointed Víctor Beker, from the University of Belgrano.

The rate went down again but the impact on the activity would not come until June

Another axis that must be agreed with the IMF is the new update of the "no intervention zone" of the Central Bank and if it developed – in a context of capital influx – the margin so that the Central Bank can buy more reserves be protected against a possible race. In fact, in the market, they believe that the IMF could agree to extend the daily purchase limit to 100 million US dollars or 150 million US dollars.

When updating the band of exchange rates, badysts consider that the bandwidth is very high, because it allows a 30% jump in the exchange rate between extremes without the Central can intervene.

Because of inflationary expectations, economists believe that the update of the exchange rate it should not be less than 2%, given the impact of the rates, increase prices to 2.5% in the first quarter.

At the last meeting between Christine Lagarde and local officials, the Managing Director of the IMF said that the program was executed in accordance with the agreement. The meeting was held in Davos as part of the meeting of the World Economic Forum, attended by Finance Minister Nicolás Dujovne and Central Bank Chief Guido Sandleris. Second IMF member David Lipton also joined the group.

Risk of urn. One of the doubts that government officials had to answer during their last international test, in Davos, focused on the elections and the possibility that Mauricio Macri would get a second term.

This week, IMF spokesman Gerry Rice He noted that Cardarelli's mission and staff were willing to meet with all stakeholders, including opponents.. During their last visit, they had a meeting with the leader of the Renovador Front, Sergio Mbada. This Saturday, one of the pretenders to justicialismo, Felipe SoláHe badured that he "would like to meet the IMF".

In statements to the 750 amendment, the former governor of Buenos Aires said that the IMF "is the main condition to fulfill to find the new government because nothing can be renegotiated, no other kind of debt without first negotiating with the Fund ". . Whatever the case may be, Solá – who has said he wants Roberto Lavagna to be part of his team, who stands out as another candidate for the presidency – said that "before negotiating with the IMF, an internal agreement must be concluded ".