A matter of time | Economic panorama

Since the International Monetary Fund handed over the first $ 15 billion of the reserve loan, the central bank's reserves have fallen by more than $ 3.5 billion. The income of the currencies negotiated with the credit agency took place on June 22, in the middle of a vertiginous race. On that day, reserves reached 63,274 million. In just 20 wheels, 3538 million disappeared, ending yesterday at 59.736 million. The average daily foreign exchange loss was 177 million. This leak rate is another fact that confirms the limited impact that understanding has had with the IMF to restore trust between investors and citizens. The losses occurred at the time the BCRA raised the interest rate of the Lebac to 47% (in the last call for tenders it fell to 46.5%, but in subsequent transactions on the secondary market, he agreed to pay 47.5%). ) and tightly adjusted monetary tourniquet with increases in bank reserves, while the Ministry of Finance issued debt securities with an exchange insurance – more difficult for the market – and validated a rise in the interest rate on loans of Letes 5, 5 percent a year, compared with October 3, last year. That is to say that the battery of defensive measures deployed by the economic team at exorbitant cost in recognition of interest could barely halt the exchange rate, but did not prevent the drainage of the reserves to continue to overflow the containment dikes if it can not be reversed in the short term.

The time that the neoliberal experience of CEOs bought by plunging Argentines back into the swamp of an agreement with the Fund is being consumed in an accelerated manner. The verification of this dynamic, however, has not led to a change of direction by the authorities, who insist stubbornly on maintaining the economic policy measures that led to this situation. One of them, for example, is the absolute freedom to buy foreign currencies, without even setting a limit like the one that existed at the beginning of Kirchnerism of up to 2 million. dollars per month. As already mentioned in this column, those who acquire more than 5 million have pocketed an average of $ 216 million a month so far this year. The next day, the Central Bank will report the June data, which will once again show an exacerbated dollarization, especially of the richest sectors of the country. Trade deregulation and the free flow of speculative capital are two fundamental pillars of the macrist model, based on financial valuation. Assumptions that this freedom would be rewarded by the world with a rain of investment and by the Argentine businessmen with the generation of business and jobs, thanks to the shock of trust, never happened. There has never been a second semester or green shoots that have risen more than a few inches from the ground. The plan failed medium to medium. Despite this, and now stuck by the model's main winners, the financial institution and the agri-food sector that does not even accept the risk of collapse of the plan that favors them to give something, accepting a restraint on Soybean restraint, the government insists on defending these pillars that immerse it in the depths of a crisis that is not seen to emerge. The problem at this stage is not the fate of the government, but the violent destruction of the quality of life of the popular majorities, the heavy legacy left to future generations and the development opportunities of the country and the danger of d & # 39; an epidemic like the one the President says, without a single argument, it will not happen.

So far this year, the loss of reserves from the central bank has reached a shocking figure: $ 19.703 million. On January 2, the monetary authority had 55,731 million euros. A few days later, with the issuance of international market debt from then-minister Luis Caputo, he raised the amount to $ 63,906 million. From then on, the trend has decreased despite the high season of foreign currency liquidation in the agricultural sector. On 21 June, after the period beginning at the end of April, reserves dropped to 48,478 million, adding even credit lines to banks and international investment funds. On June 22, the $ 15 billion IMF loan entered, to rebuild the reserves to 63.274 million. Yesterday, they were 59.736 million, 3538 million less in just 20 days. The race from 19 April to date has already cost $ 19,028 million in reserve losses, of which 15,428 million have fallen between this day and June 21 (at an average of 341 million per day) and another 3538 million between the 22 June and yesterday (an average of 177 million a day).

If the indentation of reserves of $ 3.5 billion per month was maintained, by the end of the year, there would be $ 17,500 million less, with the risk that the continuation of the trend is shaking the fears of the markets and aggravating dollarization of the portfolio. In this case, instead of finding any possibility of lowering interest rates, the Central Bank will be forced to maintain or even increase them. Volkswagen chairman Hernán Vázquez warned this week in an interview with Ambito Financiero that "with this level of interest rate, there is no industry that can be supported". This is the same diagnosis of SME entrepreneurs and the industry in general, but the novelty of their statements is that it is not only the punished model who raise their voice to emphasize the impracticality Cambiemos policies, but rather what he says is a reference to a spoiled area by the government, a member of a multinational corporation. The executive also argued that the sector sells cars at a loss to reduce inventories to maintain them with current interest rates.

On this economic reality, with a galloping recession, the government intends to unload a public expenditure adjustment of 300 billion pesos next year. Items for housing construction, the element that generates more jobs in public works, have already dropped in the first half of this year 48.9 percent in nominal terms, as the l? Nicholas Dujovne said yesterday. In 2001, the same path of strengthening fiscal adjustment in the midst of recession was followed and the result is known to all. The government does not seem to have learned from this experience. He continues to bet his chance and that of all Argentines to rebuild the link with the debt markets to recover external funding. So that? To continue with the same policies of openness of the economy to imports, foreign currency theft, tourists will buy cheap in Chile and increase interest payments on the same debt that led to the current bottleneck. For this route, it's only a matter of time before falling into a resounding end.