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While the government predicts good economic expectations for 2018 early in the year, from President Mauricio Macri to all ministers and secretaries of state, and therefore at the end of the curse, the truth is that at the end of this year he could come back to fulfill the call "the curse of even years" .
This was at least held by the consultant Ecolatina in a recent report in which showed the statistics of economic activity during 2018 and even went as far as to argue that "the next year's growth is not guaranteed, compared to 2019 .
The so-called "curse of even years" indicates that in them the economy does not grow and it does so in odd years when there are election campaigns and measures less unpopular are taken. At least economists have detected since 2011.
In 2016, the first year of change, the 39 economy fell 1.8%. In 2014, 2.6%. And in 2012, 1.1%. In these last two cases of the K era, the decline was confirmed by a revision of the "new" Indec already with Macri in La Rosada. Originally, the body intervened by Guillermo Moreno had reported increases of 0.5% and 0.8% for these two even years.
The main reasons why Ecolatina found the explanation of "the collapse of growth prospects" in 2018 there was drought that affected the entry of coins due to the decline in the oilseed crop, the strong tariff adjustment and the currency crisis which led the dollar to rival the 30 pesos
"The combination of several shocks combined negatives (drought, regulated price adjustment, exchange rate hike and hard fiscal and monetary policy) suggests that the decline in activity will be even greater than in recent years ", says the consultant's report.
"In fact, despite the positive statistical slide that left 2017 (+ 1.3%) and the strong growth of economic activity in the first quarter of the year (+ 3.6% interanu al), we expect a drop in GDP around 0.6% in 2018. "In the government they maintain the expectation of at least a minimum growth, around 0.4%. [19659009] Hunting military vote, another visit by Peña and the internal pampa for abortion ” src=”https://images.clarin.com/collections/static/lazy_square.svg” data-big=”https://images.clarin.com/2018/07/28/ryTMI_qV7_290x290__1.jpg” data-small=”https://images.clarin.com/2018/07/28/ryTMI_qV7_110x110__1.jpg” observer=”” data-observer-function=”loadLazyImg”/>
