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The group of scientists gathered within the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) points out that there have already been effects on the climate that will be irreversible for centuries or millennia.
The Secretary General of the United Nations, António Guterres, assures us that the study published on Monday by the IPCC is “a code red” for the world.
The global climate emergency is becoming increasingly evident and has been brought to the forefront from this scientific publication which warns the global community about the magnitude of the problem. On the global conflict dashboard, we have the red light of the pandemic with more than 203 million people infected and 4 million three hundred thousand dead, according to the World Health Organization.; but another alarm light is on, which has to do with global warming, as the biggest structural problem facing humanity, for the next thirty years. This is a clear wake-up call for world leaders, who must take much more decisive action to face this emergency, otherwise they want to risk betraying the younger generations, who are seeing the climate crisis as a problem. central to their own future and to the survival of the human species on the planet.
The Comprehensive Climate Change Report is the most comprehensive published to date and is based on the review and systematization of over 14,000 scientific papers, which in their conclusions blame human action for the increase in extreme events. According to the publication, continued greenhouse gas emissions could exceed a key global temperature limit in just over a decade.
Scientists say it is unequivocal that human influence has warmed the atmosphere, oceans and land, as noted by Professor Ed Hawkins of the University of Reading, UK, one from the authors of the report: “There is no question that humans are warming the planet, we cannot be more sure.”
This report makes it clear that the world has limited time to act if it is to avoid the worst-case scenarios generated by climate change and human activity. In the next ten years, the possibility (or not) of preventing the effects of the increase in the average temperature of the planet from being even more devastating is defined.. Although progress has been slowly made in global consensus throughout the various climate summits that have been held – from the first World Climate Conference in Geneva in 1979 – to the present day, countries have postponed so much. commitment to reduce their fossil fuel emissions, that it will no longer be possible to prevent global warming from intensifying in the next 30 years. Nevertheless, the United Nations scientific report notes that catastrophic consequences and a more distressing future for humanity and generations to come can still be avoided.
The study’s authors argue that since 1970, global surface temperatures have risen faster than in any other five-decade period in the past 2,000 years. This warming “is already affecting many extreme weather and climate events in all regions of the world”. Humans have warmed the planet by about 1.1 degrees Celsius (2 degrees Fahrenheit) over the past century and a half, largely because of the promotion of the fossil fuel matrix by burning gas, oil and gas. coal for energy. The consequences are obvious and can be felt anywhere in the world: this past summer in the northern hemisphere, with extreme heat waves killing hundreds in Canada and the United States, unprecedented flooding devastating parts of China and Germany, and forest fires have increased. in Siberia, Turkey and more recently in Greece.
In the more than 3,000-page publication, prepared by 234 scientists, it is assessed how global warming will change the world in the coming decades, in an accelerated manner. The report makes it clear that the warming we are experiencing to date has generated changes in many of our planetary support systems that are irreversible over time scales ranging from centuries to millennia. Regarding sea level rise, scientists have modeled a likely range of different emission levels. However, an increase of around 2 meters cannot be ruled out by the end of this century, nor an increase of 5 meters by the year 2150. Such results, while unlikely, would threaten flooding millions more in coastal areas by 2100.
The crucial climate conference in Glasgow
In November 2021, world leaders will meet in Glasgow, Scotland to work on the successor to the historic 2015 Paris Agreement. Almost every nation on the planet has signed the Accord which aims to keep global temperatures well. less than 2 °. C this century and continue efforts to keep it below 1.5 ° C. According to the IPCC publication, in all emission scenarios considered by scientists, both targets will be exceeded this century, unless it there are significant reductions in carbon dioxide emissions. The authors estimate that 1.5 ° C will be reached in 2040 in all scenarios. If emissions are not significantly reduced over the next few years, it can happen even sooner.
The keys to the next COP26 in Glasgow will be to advance climate ambition, the agreement on emissions accounting and the reincorporation of the United States. Another important point is to ensure an increase in sustainable funding. Regarding the possibility of achieving significant emission reductions, it is important to recall that Chinese President Xi Jinping announced at the United Nations General Assembly in September 2020 that his country aims to become carbon neutral by this time. 2060. This means a big step forward given the relevant decision of the nation considered the most polluting in the world, responsible for around 28% of global emissions, by publicly committing to the world with a process of decarbonization and reduction of its carbon emissions.
In line with this progress, in 2019 the UK was the first of the world’s major economies to legally commit to net zero emissions. For its part, the European Union did the same in March 2020. Since then, Japan and South Korea have joined more than 110 countries that have set themselves a goal of net zero by the middle of the century, according to UN estimates. Thus, the countries that have set themselves the goal of achieving net zero represent more than 65% of global emissions, and more than 70% of the global economy. Finally, with the triumph of President Joe Biden in the United States, the world’s largest economy has now joined the Paris Agreement and the carbon reduction pledge.
In turn, in terms of investments to advance the energy transition towards renewable energies, the European Union and the new United States government have pledged to channel trillions of dollars of green investments, to revive their savings and initiate the decarbonization process.
It is for these reasons that, while scientists warn of the serious consequences of global warming, they also express the hope that if we can halve global emissions by 2030 and achieve net zero emissions of ‘By the middle of this century, it will stop and possibly reverse the rise in temperatures. Achieving net zero means reducing greenhouse gas emissions as much as possible by using clean technologies, then burying the remaining emissions through carbon capture and storage, or absorbing them by planting trees, from a plant. major global reforestation campaign.
In this way, scientists point out that there is new hope that large reductions in emissions can stabilize rising temperatures. “If we join forces now, we can prevent a climate catastrophe. But, as the report makes clear, there is no time for delays, no room for apologies, ”said UN Secretary General António Guterres.
Ecological debt with southern countries
Finally, one of the most sensitive points is the possibility for the countries of the South to access funds to finance adaptation to climate change. At the (virtual) International Climate Adaptation Summit hosted by the Netherlands in January 2021, it became clear that developed countries are still far from reaching the necessary fund contributions to help finance climate change actions. adaptation to climate change for poor countries.
According to the organization Oxfam on the basis of data collected in 2020, the resources estimated at 100,000 million dollars annually, in 2017 and 2018 they reached only about 60,000 million; in turn, 80% were loans to be repaid, instead of grants, thus increasing the external debt of the countries most affected by climate change.
Thus, while it is verified that the funds currently allocated are clearly insufficient, the United Nations Environment Program (UNEP) already predicts that the amount needed to deal with the damage and losses caused by climate change will increase, in particular. due to the greater intensity of the impacts. Therefore, it is estimated that by 2030 280,000 million per year will be needed to help the countries of the South adapt, reaching 500,000 million by 2050.We then see the gap widening between the support needed by vulnerable nations and the funding provided by rich countries. Especially considering that the countries of the Global South are those who suffer the most and contribute the least to global warming.
It is important to remember the position of the Papa Francisco, who denounced the existence of a “Ecological debt” contracted with the Global South for the “plundering of its resources” and the excessive use of its space for waste disposal; while urging rich countries to reduce their CO2 emissions, to avoid an unprecedented climate catastrophe.
* Sociologist, environmentalist, coordinator in Latin America of the Progressive International. Master in Water Resources Management.
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