A spicy dollar promised the week before STEP

The DXY index, which measures the evolution of the dollar against a basket consisting of the euro, the pound sterling, the Japanese yen, the Swiss franc, the Canadian dollar and the Swedish krona , closed slightly lower on Friday, but is maintained by above the 98-point mark, after approaching 99 per week. This climate has spread to emerging currencies and, in the region, the Brazilian real and the Chilean peso have depreciated by 2.6% and the Mexican by 1.4% over the last 5 conversion wheels. There has been a flight to quality, as evidenced by the demand for treasury bonds, whose yield has fallen to 1.85% per annum.

Until July 23, the dollar in Buenos Aires remained balanced, but from that day, demand for bank hedging and cash outflows increased, that foreign exchange operators attributed more to the overall strength of the currency than to national problems, such as the proximity of the end of the month or the figures that might result from the surveys. Since then, the dollar's wholesale price has risen by 2 pesos, or 4.7%.

The central bank intervened only in the futures market by selling part of the $ 3 billion position it had accumulated during the months of calm exchange rates. On the market, there is no certainty as to the amount he would have disarmed from this position if there is no public information, but an estimate based on a rough calculation suggests that it would be between 1,500 and 2 000 million US dollars. If that were successful, they would stay $ 1 billion plus the $ 3,600 million limit on short sales granted by the IMF until the end of September.

It has also been active in the money market by absorbing money through liquidity letters and validating an increase of more than 100 basis points in the Leliq interest rate, which has been established. at 61% per year.

It is likely that the central bank will maintain its strategy of acting only on the futures market and through monetary regulation, as before, if there were only external factors. at the origin of a new eventual rise. But if this demand is interpreted to respond to disruptive local reasons, issues related to politics and elections next Sunday, some hope to see if the BCRA will finally strengthen its intervention strategy, adding operations on the market in cash, in addition to the $ 60 million sold daily by the Treasury.

Those who believe that the price of the US ticket will remain firm at the beginning of the week, maintain that Friday there were operations of "Trades" exchange rates of about $ 250 million: these are institutions that have sold dollars in pesos for 3 and 4 days, taking advantage of a rate of over 60% per annum, while simultaneously buying currencies for wheels of today and tomorrow.

Several questions are asked in the market. If it is possible that external factors are dissipating or if, on the contrary, they worsen. And in this case, if local issues related to Primary next Sunday could be added to this cause of change.

These are questions that have no answer. They consider that those who have taken financial positions in local currency by betting on an official triumph do not change them. The same goes for the strategy of those who were hedged here in hard currency (fixed dollar terms increased) or abroad. A variant would probably be an increase in the dollarized position of the portfolios, responding to the versions suggesting a greater polarization between the formulas of Fernández and Macri-Pichetto, which would strengthen the possibility of a presidential definition in the first round of elections. ;October.

Without knowing if it would be for one or the other, it is a currency in the air whose result promises equally important gains or losses. This is the reason why many professionals continue to lateralize their business until they are clearer.