A study has concluded that the UK will be granted collective immunity next Monday, April 12.

Hailed as a successful model for its vaccination campaign, but at the same time as one of the countries with the highest number of deaths from the Sars-CoV-2 pandemic, the UK could surpass the threshold of collective immunity Monday, based on a dynamic forecast from University College London (UCL).

According to a book published this week by the prestigious academic institution, The results predict that the number of people who receive protection against the virus, either through vaccination or against a previous infection with the coronavirus, will reach 73.4% on April 12, enough for the country to acquire collective immunity.

According to the British newspaper The Telegraph, The number contrasts with the model released by Imperial College this week, which suggested that only 34% of protection had been achieved. end of March.

Weeks before, and before the report, Professor Karl Friston, Scientific Director of the Wellcome Center for Human Neuroimaging at UCL, anticipated the right balance of the vaccination plan: “The conclusion is that vaccination seems to have a tangible effect on the new confirmed cases and daily death rates recorded in the past ”.

As the country began to lift restrictions, which include the opening of bars and restaurants with restrictions from April 12, the new forecast could put more pressure on the government to act faster to ease the blockade, especially when it comes to summer vacation travel.

Acceleration and effectiveness of vaccination

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) also reported a few days ago, based on antibody tests performed, that in the week ending March 14, around 54% of people in England already had antibodies to the virus, and slightly less in decentralized countries.

Since then, 7.1 million more people have received a first dose of the vaccine and nearly 100,000 have tested positive for the virus, and many more have contracted silent and asymptomatic infection.

On the other hand, the study points out that one in 10 people also have innate immunity from infections with other coronaviruses, further increase protection at the population level, while others can be immunized by T cells, which would not be detected in antibody tests.

Modelers say their “most likely” scenarios contrast with SPI-M’s projections of “reasonable worst-case scenarios” and are more optimistic about the pandemic.

Pessismic models

A few days ago, a predictive model by the government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) predicted that An opening like the one launched by Prime Minister Boris Johnson could create a scenario in which the number of coronavirus hospitalizations returns to levels seen earlier this year.

This latest forecast “pessimistic”, tells the British tabloid The Telegraph, angering the government which asked that this model produced by SPI-M be challenged by other work. The SPI-M summary, presented by the government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage), suggested that the roadmap out of containment was “very likely” to lead to an increase in hospital cases and deaths this year. summer.

In this sense, some models have been criticized for using outdated and erroneous assumptions about immunity levels and vaccine efficacy in the population, as well as for failing to account for reductions in transmission due to vaccination. and seasonality.

Calculations from University College London also suggest that in the coming months the threshold needed for herd immunity will drop dramatically and Britain will only need 40% protection in the midst of the European summer to be safe.

For one of the labor officials, Professor Karl Friston said “the herd immunity estimates surprised me.” However, he also noted that “they are unremarkable given that over 50 percent of adults have been vaccinated, about 42 percent of people have been exposed to the virus, and about 10 percent have pre-existing immunity.”

“When the estimated efficacy of the vaccination in terms of sterilizing immunity is taken into account, it means, depending on the model, that about 70 percent of the population is immune,” he added.

There is no change of course

For Boris Johnson, there will be no deviation from the current roadmap despite warnings from science advisers that it will lead to a third wave and even new Anglo-Swedish development issues, AstraZeneca and the University of Oxford.

The government has decided to encourage the public to take the local vaccine when offered, despite recent indications that healthy under 30s will now receive the Pfizer or Moderna vaccine instead of the AstraZeneca vaccine.

The England executive also ignored predictions that reopening schools would trigger an increase in new infections, which has not happened so far.

The health secretary, Matt Hancock insisted this morning that the three vaccines available in the UK are still ‘safe’, and pointed out that recent data on fatal blood clots was “extremely scarce”, a phrase that seeks not to stop a successful vaccination plan that applied more than 870,000 doses in a single day.

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