A tour of Macri, forced by the electoral emergency

Yesterday
Economic policy closed a milestone inaugurated with the agreement signed last September with the IMF. At that time, for the first time since December 2015,

Mauricio Macri

He had only one version of the economic process. Until then, in his head had always competed two proposals: Prat-Gay against Sturzenegger, Sturzenegger against Quintana, Caputo against Dujovne.

The program agreed in Washington has become a dogma. With the peculiarity of any dogma: the intellectual isolation of the one who professes it. Macri has reduced the economic debate to zero. The same answer was waiting for one who expressed a doubt: the presidential hand depositing a piece of paper on the desk. "This is the law of gravity." End of the dialogue

This was concluded yesterday. Carolina Stanley, Nicolás Dujovne and Dante Sica
communicated a battery of measures designed to moderate the

l & # 39; inflation

and relieve the most punished by the recession. At the center of these announcements was a price control for 60 products, which will be expanded during the election campaign. There will also be a rate freeze. This should be clarified: no further correction will be announced, but the one already available for the sliced ​​gas remains in effect. These decisions are in line with the Central Bank's setting of the non-intervention trading zone. The dollar will no longer be updated every month. The December quote, which would have been $ 59.6, should be $ 51.45.

The reason gravity is no longer a law should be sought in investigations. The Macri image has collapsed due to inflation. And inflation is determined by the rise in regulated prices. Especially one: the exchange rate. That is why the economic team insisted on renegotiating the exchange rules with the Monetary Fund. Nicolás Dujovne and Guido Sandleris have managed to have Christine Lagarde approve the setting of the upper limit of the band, so that expectations of devaluation will moderate in the next eight months. But they failed to allow any intervention within the band, because the peso will devalue more than expected. That is, the dollar can have a long run before reaching $ 51.45. Yesterday, with a price of 42.98 dollars, the peso could depreciate by nearly 20% to reach this maximum, from which the plant can intervene. If yesterday's proposals were successful and caused the dollar to fall, this potential for devaluation would be greater. This alternative is now aggravated because the Fund has removed the floor of the band. This means that if the currency falls below the reasonable, the plant will no longer be able to buy.

The electoral emergency forced Casa Rosada to accept a debate on the economy. The announcements of yesterday originate, more than in the conviction of the president, the pressure of radicalism. Macri had a lively discussion on price control last Thursday with Alfredo Cornejo, governor of Mendoza and chairman of the party. The next day, Gerardo Morales presented his candidacy for re-election in Jujuy hiding: "I do not control inflation or the dollar".

Yesterday's novelties did not suture the wound of Cambiemos. Ricardo Alfonsín pbaded the bill: "If at first they had warned that there was a lack of policy as well as a market, these measures would be useless and many sanctions would have been avoided". The reprimand of Alfonsin resumes an original discussion. Macri has always refused a price and salary agreement. Since, I suppose, it was proposed by Alfonso Prat-Gay. In a burst of optimism, the president imagined the defeat of inflation as a personal achievement. "It's an affair to me," he's boasted.

This contempt for the problem is giving way to alarming caution. For many economists, it will take at least a decade to break the price race. Some of them wonder if, with the release of convertibility, Argentina has not entered a cycle of instability similar to that of the 1945-1973 series. In addition, the controversy proposed yesterday opens a mystery on his destiny next December. Who suppose at this moment will have to pay the cost of sincerity?

The way of communicating what was decided was commented on during the rest of the day. First, the video "house" attracted attention, in which Macri explained the measures to a neighbor so humble that she had only a glbad of water on her table. A subliminal confession according to which the time of the big cows pbaded when the stamps were accompanied by invoices. Then something more strange happened: the government sent to the press a summary of its initiatives, without much precision. For two hours, commercials began to navigate a sea of ​​doubts and speculation, until ministers appeared. In this case, he was surprised by the last scarcity: the complete absence of the chief of staff, Marcos Peña.

The effect of the measures is crucial for the destiny of power. Macri must reverse expectations. Especially those around him. In addition to the radicals, open to all options, the first figures of Pro fear to be shipwrecked by the devaluation-inflation-recession. A Bermuda Triangle. Among these figures is María Eugenia Vidal, whose reelection is threatened today. If the economy is not ordered, will the president's candidacy also be threatened? The question remains taboo at Casa Rosada. But not for the rest of Cambiemos.

Macri is still betting on a polarization with Cristina Kirchner. But this contradiction becomes saturated with paradoxes. For the moment, the President's latest solutions, including price controls, give him a far-off familiarity with his predecessor. It is striking to note that this badimilation also occurs in the opposite direction. Although Mrs Kirchner hopes to find her voice, her environment is in charge of clarifying that if she wins, she will not plunge the country into the Venezuelan nightmare. The Kirchner prefers to look in the mirror of Portugal, where the socialist António Costa boasts to have reduced unemployment by half and to have eliminated the budget deficit. This presentation proposes a goal: to deny the prospect of an adjustment, which had been made in Portugal by the previous government. However, those around the former president made it clear that they would not break with the fund. "We will renegotiate the agreement, or is Macri alone allowed to do it?", Pleasant Agustín Rossi.

Mrs. Kirchner also begins to acquire a feature of Macri. I could deepen this identification. Because the last economic experience attributable to Kirchnerism is that of Alicia, in Santa Cruz. It produced a reduction in current expenditures and salaries that would make José Luis Espert blush: in 2018, he granted an 18% increase to the public sector. For this year, he does not want to exceed 26%. Mandate of Blood: Alicia Kirchner refuses to borrow. Except with the shores of Santa Cruz and Entre Ríos, Eskenazi: another mandate of the blood. It is curious to note the fascination of leftism by these "experts of the regulated markets". The Socialist Miguel Lifschitz is eager to appeal to the services of the Santa Fe Bank before leaving, with a scandalous leaf on the benefits granted to the current dealer: Eskenazi.

Macri beckons Cristina Kirchner to lead the country to Venezuela. If they believe it, the public will run to buy dollars and his reelection could succumb. Maybe he prefers not to believe too much. Cristina Kirchner insinuates that it will not be like Maduro. If you believe, the economy will tend to stabilize, which will benefit Macri. Therefore, she would also prefer that you do not believe her. Trapped in this dilemma, the president begins to imagine an act in the races. And to appreciate how difficult it is for oral clbades to sit on the bench. Federal justice considers power more than the record.

The latest evidence was provided by Judge Marcelo Martínez de Giorgi, who said that the president's cousin, Angelo Calcaterra, and lobbyist Jorge "Corcho" Rodríguez had no merit, in the Odebrecht case, for which Alan García had committed suicide in Peru. In this case, something curious happened. The figurehead of Ricardo Jaime, Manuel Vázquez, has been proposed as repentant to the prosecutor Franco Picardi. He detailed the bribes in exchange for the exculpation of his wife and two children. Then he was operated on. A few days ago, the doctors allowed him to testify before Martínez de Giorgi, who had to approve the testimony. But the judge chose not to consider his details. He hastened to exonerate Calcaterra and Rodriguez. And he sent Vázquez's relatives away, eliminating the reason he wanted to confess. The supervisor of Calcaterra would have been, according to countless witnesses who listened to him from his mouth, the head of the AFI, Gustavo Arribas. Ana Juan, the wife of Martinez de Giorgi, has just been proposed as a federal judge in Hurlingham. The similarities multiply: there is no lasting polarization.