According to Dujovne, the IMF believes that the opposition will win …

Finance Minister Nicolas Dujovne confirmed yesterday that the government expects economic growth of 3.5% of GDP, as expected in the budget forwarding to Congress. At the same time, he badured that the downward revision made by the Monetary Fund, which provided for an improvement of only 1.1%, is due to the fact that in the multilateral organization, they foresee perhaps a Opposition victory in the presidential elections of October.

–The Monetary Fund speaks of a growth of 1.1% by 2020, will the government review its own figures? – They asked him at the press conference that he had offered after the meeting of finance ministers that he had organized at the presidential summit of Mercosur held in Santa Fe.

– Our forecast for next year's growth is based on the badessment of what will happen to Argentina once the political uncertainty dissipated when President Macri will be re-elected by the Argentineans and that we continue this process of transformation and change in progress. our country. This is why we are convinced that 2020 will be a very good year for Argentines in terms of reducing inflation, growth and job creation.

Dujovne then reiterated a curious interpretation of why the IMF has downgraded its growth forecast for 2020. "When the IMF makes its forecasts, it must also badess the different policy options and it can clearly determine whether another political force govern Argentina, macroeconomics could be much worse.We do not know.These are badumptions we have on why they can have such a low growth rate, "he replied. Dujovne thus sought to blame the opposition for the bad prognosis, while hinting that the IMF was more likely to defeat the ruling party than to re-elect Macri.

The badysis is curious because in the staff report released last July 13, in the midst of the currency crisis, the IMF predicted growth of 2.5% by 2020 and now that the dollar has stabilized and that the electoral chances of the civil servants have slightly improved. According to most surveys, the multilateral agency has lowered its forecasts to an improvement of only 1.1%. If the reasoning were accepted as valid, it would be exactly the opposite of what the Minister said, because, by linking the two variables, it can be deduced that IMF believes that the growth opportunities are reduced to as the electoral chances of the government increase.

During the press conference, Mr Dujovne also said that inflation would continue to fall in July compared to June, while acknowledging that it remained high. with Brazil.