According to the OECD, Argentina will not recover its pre-ndemic GDP per capita until 2026

The survey conducted by the OECD placed Argentina in the last link among the countries that make up the G20 in terms of the time it will take each economy to return to pre-university level.

In this context, China it is located in the first place because it has been able to find the path of growth even over the past year and the volume of GDP has remained at constant and increasing levels. The same thing happened in the case of Turkey.

Within the group of countries that will be able to recover the gross domestic product in 2021 are South Korea, Russia, United States, Japan, Germany, India e Indonesia.

On the other hand, the multilateral organization provides that Australia reach a pre-pandemic level in the first quarter of 2022, while Canada, Italy, United Kingdom, Brazil Yes France he would do so in the last semester of that year.

Finally, they predict that Spain returns to pre-coronavirus levels in 2023 as well as Mexico, while Saudi Arabia Yes South Africa They will do so in 2024. Finally, it seems Argentina, whose estimate places it with a pre-pandemic GDP only for 2026.

If these forecasts materialize, local GDP will still be below pre-pandemic levels, according to the entity’s report on the global economic outlook, presented on Monday in Paris.

According to the OECD, “persistent macroeconomic imbalances and further mobility restrictions will weigh on domestic demand and limit the recovery” in Argentina.

In addition, he warned that continued monetization of the fiscal deficit “will keep inflation high”, but stressed that job creation “will slowly recover, although high informality remains a cause for concern.”

For the entity, “The stronger revenues, in part linked to high commodity prices, have slightly improved the budget results, while the pandemic-related spending will gradually withdraw once the recovery strengthens. This will reduce the need for short-term monetary measures. financing “.

“Delineating a medium-term path to fiscal sustainability would help build confidence and strengthen investment. Improving the efficiency of public spending and a review of exemptions from the tax system offer a large margin for budgetary savings, ”he stressed.

And pointed out that “The expansion of conditional cash transfers can help reduce poverty, which affects 42% of the population, and support income, even for informal workers.”

Globally, the OECD predicted that the US economy will grow 6.9% in 2021, reclaim everything that was lost in the pandemic, and revive the entire global economy, which together will improve. 5.8% this year, according to forecasts.

“The dynamics of the US economy have been strengthened, helped by stimuli and vaccination. Its formidable fiscal stimulus will help strengthen the global recovery,” said the agency.

For the OECD, the outlook for the global economy “has improved considerably, but to a different extent depending on the economy”.

For example, he noted that in advanced economies, “the gradual launch of an effective vaccine has started to allow more intensive contact activities, slowed down by infection containment measures, to gradually reopen. helps stimulate demand, reduce available capacity and reduce the risk of long-term significant scarring from the pandemic. “

“It seems likely that budget support in current plans will moderate in 2022, but greater confidence and fewer public health restrictions should encourage households to spend. However, in many emerging markets, slow deployment vaccination, new outbreaks of infection and associated containment measures will continue to slow growth for some time, ”he added.

The global economy has now returned to pre-pandemic activity levels – according to the report – but will remain below what was expected before the crisis by the end of 2022.

Regarding China, he stressed that the country “has already caught up on this path and should continue on this path in 2021 and 2022”.

Some other emerging market economies, including India, could continue to record large GDP deficits compared to pre-pandemic expectations: it is only expected to grow at solid rates once the impact of the virus will have dissipated, assessed the OECD.