After 15 years, the IMF harasses Kirchnerism again

Neither good nor bad, the whole very concrete and without play for the possible platform. The raw data indicates that since Kirchnerism returned to Casa Rosada, Argentina contributed $ 2,198 million to the Monetary Fund constant and healthy derivatives of stand-by credit that he inherited from macrism. Religiously, 1,597 million last year and 601 million between January and the end of May 2021.

the surtax that the IMF charges the country for a loan which, after some adjustments, amounted to 44,000 million US dollars and exceeds the limits set in its regulations. Equivalent to 2 percentage points, the surcharge is added to the base rate of 1% and brings the financial cost to 3% per annum, that is to say to a considerable level coming from such a good lender. market. If there is no change of formula or new pact, the 3% could rise to 4% later.

Question:It was a mistake or a dribble that those who drafted the so-called Kirchnerista Proclamation of May 25 demanded that the Fund be required to suspend payments and the additional interest rate and, in the same act, failed to have their government do these things for a year and a half What do they associate with the worst settings? They are, among others, Amado Boudou, former minister Felisa Miceli, Pablo Moyano, ultra-Christian deputy Fernanda Vallejos, former judge of the Court Eugenio Zaffaroni and the governor of Formosa, Gildo Insfrán, famous for his dictatorial management of the pandemic.

Three alternatives, among several, suggest interpretations that best suit the movement. How can we assume, on the basis of known precedents, that it is pressure for Alberto Fernández and Minister Martín Guzmán harden your positions, or that they want to make believe that thus detach from the IMF to which they are inevitably attached or, in the end, that it is little game for the grandstand. We have a bare political campaign, certainly, in the unusual and unnecessary claim that the Fund helps the government find the money that has fled the country and also contributes to an investigation that allows us to distinguish what is a legitimate debt and which is illegitimate.

Obviously, behind these operations and those to come in quantity the elections appear, including the September STEP perhaps contested, and a speech adapted to Christian activism. Everything, assuming that no decision covered by the health emergency will cancel the primaries.

Something should be clear, in the midst of the hubbub: that arguments that distinguish theirs from others smell like cheaters, when it comes to choosing those who approve of costly monetary adjustments and those who do not. This is what the Kirchnerist rapporteurs mean when they judge to be different, a little less than progressive, from the movements led by Kristalina Georgieva and Alberto Fernández.

We will finally see what the new pact tells us, even if in principle we already know what everyone knows: that at any height and especially at the heights to which it has climbed here, inflation is a flower of adjustment and, as always, a heavy adjustment on the sectors with the fewest resources and the least power to defend themselves.

A direct sample of the service and its recipients appears in the tax accounts for the first quarter. Reveal that annual pension spending is 11 percentage points lower than inflation; 14 points for family allowances and another 14 for the salaries of civil servants of the Nation. Put in money, the state saved no less than $ 113,000 million in just four months, while benefiting greatly from the taxes associated with the inflationary process.

Coupled with the IMF train and similar slogans is the Kirchnerist attempt to once again lengthen a payment of US $ 2.4 billion to the parisian club which expired at the end of May and was extended until the end of July. Here it appears another omission of speech K related to the way Axel Kicillof negotiated, in 2014, the debt in default with the organization which includes, among our main creditors, Germany, Japan, the Netherlands, Spain and Italy.

The $ 2,400 million is the last installment of a package which, when it began to be renegotiated by the current governor, was around $ 6,300 million and which ultimately added up to $ 9,690 million. dollars. And how do you explain such a difference? Kicillof recognized accrued interest and punitive interest since 2003 without question and, on top of that, he validated a clause that exposes Argentina to the risk of 9% dollar interest if it defaults again.

This mountain of money and these conditions accepted by the Minister of the Economy at the time to avoid an annoying demand from the Paris Club negotiators, in particular from the rigid representative of the Netherlands: that an audit of the Argentine accounts by the IMF, known as Article IV, supporting the operation. That’s it, he paid dearly for what finally It was not a departure but something very close to surrender.

The fact is that this problem hit the back and kirchnerism put him back to the top. The majority of career civil servants in their countries and needing to cover their backs, are now the representatives of Germany and Japan asking for an Article IV or Fund document to reschedule the payment of the US $ 2.4 billion. . And otherwise, that Argentina pays them directly in cash in July.

At the beginning of January 2006, Néstor Kirchner drew on the reserves of the Central Bank and paid in one fell swoop the US $ 9,800 million that Argentina owed the IMF, to get rid of it and take on the devil forever. But it is clear that what the President of the time likened to a national achievement was not eternal: 15 years later, Kirchnerism comes back to life with the same nightmare.

And not just because the Fund is on the Paris Club’s roadmap: soon, between August and September, the Government will have to face deadlines with the organization which total approximately $ 2.3 billion. By then and thanks to crisis-driven change, it will have a bundle of SDRs, the currency used by the IMF, equivalent to $ 4.35 billion. If you prefer and can use them for a health emergency or other similar purpose, must pay with reservations, that is, he cannot keep the two things whole.

The chain continues with the 2,400 million US dollars added to the November and December payments, but with one difference: when the time comes, the government hopes to have an arrangement so as not to tap into the reserves this time. Then comes the dam, starting with 4,130 million in the first quarter of 2022 and a chorrera which by the end of 2023 will reach 44,000 million US dollars.

It is at this point evident that if there is not something left, it is time and even more evident when considering all that will need to be fixed. and the nothing that was fixed. What exists today in a hybrid similar to a non-relationship, an unwritten pact where Guzmán talks about progress and IMF officials, constructive dialogue and in which the rule of don’t make waves that are shaking up the forex market.

Rarities of the same table, supposed Argentine negotiator went from imagining a 30-40% rate hike to a 9% cap and more grants; wants to modify an adjustment of the Income Tax of companies and ends up colliding with Sergio Massa, the head of the deputies and author of the project; believes that the cachet of the rational that some recognize gives him serious political aspirations and Christianity or Cristina herself crosses it and, without too much care, They appointed Kicillof as auditor.

It seems clear, in any case, that the government will not default with the IMF and, at the same time, very obscure, what kind of deal can get out of this mess. What will come after the elections and he does not come for a walk, precisely.

BORN