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The Paso elections had several defeats. In addition to Mauricio Macri 's government, the interviewers were the ones who most influenced the results: none of them managed to notice the big difference that was being made in Argentine society.
The 15 points obtained by Macri for Alberto Fernández do not appear in any study on the intention to vote, although some pollsters have anticipated a broad victory.
In any case, the consultants were poorly placed for the next elections: the first round, on 27 October.
Among the critics they received, one of them was cited regarding the method of collecting data for the use of the fixed network (it has been shown that this does not serve any purpose). to obtain a representative representation of society). What is happening is that this type of work costs less than a face-to-face survey.
A well-known investigator ensures that a complete study in the field requires at least "about four million pesos".
What will the specialists do now with their studies? Will they invest this money to change, in some cases, their methodologies? And if they do these studies, will they disseminate them in the mbad media?
Alejandro Catterberg, director of Polyarchy, said last Monday, in the program of Carlos Pagni (Odyssey, of LN +), that the trend is not to publish more surveys.
"At the international level, there is a process in which there are several reasons to question the results of the surveys in terms of political predictions.Three variables have an influence on this trend.The main one is the systematic fall in the participation rate: fewer and fewer people agree to participate in the surveys, "he said.
"The second variable is the multiplicity of companies and companies that devote themselves to it, as well as new data collection methods that they use, faster and cheaper, but which increase the inaccuracy ", did he declare.
As the third variable, the director of Polyarchy emphasized the multiplicity of media reproduced by surveys.
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This is why Catterberg claims that the most prestigious companies "are pulling out of the public debate and providing information on the electoral races".
As he said, the two largest US companies in the field – Galup and Pew Resarche – have not provided more data for two years.
Faced with this challenging context, and given the relevance that they take, the decision is to save the studies. "In Poliarquía, we have not published any surveys," he said.
"But that does not mean that our figures are very different from those of our colleagues," he said of Paso.
What will happen
Gustavo Córdoba He was one of the closest investigators to Sunday's numbers. Although his latest study does not mark the distance traveled (15 points), very close to the Paso spoke with several journalists and said that the percentage could be greater than 12 points.
"We badyze not publishing," said Cordoba before consulting this newspaper. "If we do these studies, they will not be released to the press, and most customers understand that it does not matter."
Córdoba adds that, in many cases, the survey is a "strategic input" that customers should protect.
Mariel Fornoni, of Management & Fit, acknowledged Wednesday that the pollsters "underestimated" seven points to Fernandez and six to Macri. But he rejected criticism of the data collection methodology.
"We all had fairly equal numbers and it was a shock what happened, "he told Idea's businessmen in Rosario.
Will they publish polls on the October elections? The voice. "We still do not know," was Fornoni's answer.
Synopsis did not define it either, another of the pollsters who measured before Las Paso. "We still do not define it, we are reviewing our plans, and for the moment nothing is defined," he said. Lucas Romero. "Similarly, I suppose that there will be much less interest, given the result."
Gastón Toro, of the group Feedback, admits that they considered in their studies a minor difference between Kirchnerism and macroism. But they continue to study and publish them.
"The polls do not fail, those who are made by phone, who leave two handles, fail, but opinion studies are not wrong," he understands.
The case of Elypsia
The sounder Elypsis, author of the famous report that made the stock market jump on Friday, was one of the hardest hit. It is that their intention to vote has marked a closed step, which has moved them away from reality.
One of his bosses, Luciano CohanHe recognized the problem one day after the elections.
Moment of intellectual humility. We could not be more wrong. This is not a consolation that most have been mistaken. We will have to throw everything away and start again.
On Thursday, the version circulated that Cohan had been relocated from the consulting company for this reason, but the news was not confirmed by Elypsis.
Copy of the Elypsis survey.
Yes post
The University of San Andrés, through Diego Reynoso, is one of the entities that will publish new studies. "Of course, we will do our next fieldwork in September," he said. "We do it every two months for four years."
Their number had given 43 for Fernandez and 37 for Macri. "The results were, from our point of view, close," he explained a few days after the elections, as well as a series of details on how the undecided were projected and on those who did not say for who they would vote.
"We worked well at Paso so we will try to do it in October," he said. The voice. "Because whoever should not fear not."
Another who will repeat the publication is Cristian Buttie, from CB Public Opinion Consultant. The company, from Rio Cuarto, has anticipated the 50-30 of Macri and Fernández in the province of Córdoba.
"Yes, we are planning to deal with a national, with the same methodology, of course, including Córdoba, in mid to late September," he said. The voice.
"Polls are a great tool for knowing a trend, the reason for the end results, but not forgetting that they are the picture of when they were made," says Buttie.
"Many things may have happened in the last election, but mostly because there is an area of the electorate almost insensitive to opinion studies and knowledge of their position, the methodology needs to be strengthened more than ever, "he said. End to end
"Naturally, as in all professions, we often do not work with the truth, but with divergent interests," he adds about his colleagues.
As well Federico González He will publish his investigations on what can happen in October.
"We will publish the next weekend," he told the media. His consultant was another who almost reached the final result (44.8 to 36.9 per week of Paso).
One of Gonzalez's inquiries was about their number, fairly close. What was it due? "There are several reasons for this: we rely on face-to-face surveys, and we also know and / or have information that a significant proportion of consultants contributed to an average difference of 3.5 % was based on IVR telephone surveys, which clearly distort in favor of Macri ", was the answer.
In the case of Jorge Giacobbe He confirmed that they would also publish their investigations. "Yes, we will publish surely, we always give the figures we see before an election, and we will do it with a letter that will try to measure the variations that these figures may suffer," he told the newspaper.
"Because the risk is always that what happened this Sunday is coming," he added.
The rest
The consultants mentioned in the note are those who responded to the request of this newspaper. In other cases, a few days have been requested for an answer.
"We are still badyzing the problem, but I think so …", explained a prestigious Buenos Aires consultant who did not do well at Paso.
In other cases, they preferred not to comment at the moment.
What comes
Ernesto Calvo, Professor of Political Science at the University of Maryland, said that "the electoral system has an badet that is not common in the rest of the world": the pre-election poll that was the Paso.
"He anticipates the results of national elections with an unparalleled level of detail," he said in an article in The Statesman.
"Unlike university polls, we can not add questions about why people vote by voting, but a three-round system guarantees election results of 90,000 tables, two months before the general election, at the end of the year. general election often in the ballot, "he said.
"Paso also produces huge amounts of data that can be used to oversee general elections, because electoral fraud is only possible if both elections are affected simultaneously," Calvo said.
Note: In an interview with Chain 3, Calvo had predicted that there would be "surprises" between the polls and the results of the Paso.
Macri
The journalist Santiago Fioriti, of Clarín, published Monday that President Macri was furious against the pollsters.
"A few hours earlier, before coming to the scene, the president was sarcastically shown in front of a smaller group of officials, distilling anger at the investigators. British Tea Time, Macri had spoken on the phone with friends and confidants of the "red circle" by guaranteeing them a vote-by-ballot contest. He did not even rule out that the alleged wave in his favor of the latter weeks can lead to an unexpected victory, "he writes. The reporter last Monday.
And he added more information: "The government had its own measures." Isonomy, one of the companies working for the Casa Rosada, had detected some kind of technical link.Aresco, Federico Aurelio, was talking about 39, a distance of four points in favor of Alberto Fernández Thus, Jaime Durán Barba and Peña confirmed Friday afternoon that Together for Change could win or lose two points and fall four in the worst case.
"And? What happened at the polls?" Asked Macri at Costa Salguero on Sunday night, no answer needed.
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