Agreement with the IMF, the most difficult and urgent goal of Alberto Fernández

Calm is an illusion. But after a week of stable dollar prices, and without the panic scenes at the bank that had been feared before the imposition of exchange restrictions, enormous weight was lost.
Mauricio Macri and also to his rival,
Alberto Fernandez.

In their own way, both men are stressed by the game of responsibilities and powers that have left the unexpected result of STEP. They blame each other for the crisis and, at the same time, feel the inability to manage it until the elections have determined who will command since December 10.

Alberto Fernández's Iberian tour this week has reiterated the presidential role he takes for granted. He tried to make his program known to businessmen and politicians wishing to embody a moderate project, far removed from the latest version of Kirchnerism in power. And he took advantage of the discussions with confidence to express the frustration generated by this kind of interregno until October 27th, where everything he says can spark an explosion when it is lacking tools to act on reality.

In its environment, the embarrbadment caused by the idea of ​​preparing two presidential debates in the midst of the country's critical situation is noticeable. He does not want to start breaking a law, but in Peronism, there are those who take for granted that they will eventually be annulled.

The obsession that reveals the Kirchner candidate is the renegotiation with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) of the agreement with the country. This is an urgent goal in case of election victory; the knot to untie so that its economic and political project is viable.

In Spain, he was asked at almost every meeting he attended how he intended to manage this management. They explain who is part of their team that aspires above all to extend the terms of payment of the
Standby of $ 57,000 million, which, as signed by Macri, should begin to be returned in 2021. "It would be like having the chord of our neck," says a counselor of the candidate. A relief that would affect the rest of the debt (and the level of risk).

A new agreement, in the eyes of the opposition candidate, would require a review of the conditionalities. He believes that the fiscal target is not achieved, which would require a primary surplus in 2020. He believes that new targets are needed, with a deficit margin to promote stimulus measures. 39, economic activity (such as a significant reduction in the taxation of SMEs). Would you even be willing to ask for more disbursements? Today, nobody defeats it.

Pbading through Lisbon, he said he was looking closely at the model of the Portuguese socialist government. Prime Minister António Costa, host of Fernández on Friday, gained notoriety by renouncing extreme austerity in 2015 and getting good results, after a drastic adjustment by his center-right predecessor as part of a agreement with the IMF and other agencies. Internationale

The so-called "Portuguese miracle" is however far from being a utopia of the left. Costa has ordered stimulus measures and canceled specific cuts, while applying strict fiscal discipline (the zero deficit has just been reached) and honoring the commitments made in the $ 90,000 million financial bailout. agencies had given to the previous government. He did not touch the labor reform approved by the right in the midst of crisis. He did not return with the pension reform that lengthened the retirement age of one year. He did not hire more than 50,000 unemployed civil servants before he came to power. It has reached a balanced budget by freezing investments in public works and taking measures to attract foreign real estate investments of dubious origin. Despite this, it maintains a debt-to-GDP ratio of 120%. His membership of the EU keeps him away from a financial crisis. Unlike Portugal and Argentina, neither the current government has implemented the reforms required by the IMF, nor the favorite to succeed, it is willing to respect the pact that comes as legacy. But it must remain with Fernandez's praise to Costa's fiscal discipline. It was a sign for the IMF, as when he declared in Spain that his predisposition to honor the debts of the country was total.

Another aspect that interests him in Portugal is the formation of the alliance that keeps Costa in power, the so-called "jerigonza" (espepento). Costa runs socialism, a moderate center-left party. It is supported in Parliament by the Communist Party, decisive in the trade union world, and by the Esquerda Block, a radical urban left usually compared to the Spanish Podemos. Fernández fantasizes about the idea of ​​directing a rational peronism comparable to this socialism. Can, like Costa, keep the other pieces of his forehead in balance – The Cámpora, the CGT, the picketers of Grabois? In which space will you place Cristina Kirchner?

Accessories that are lacking

The main problem faced by the candidate and his entourage is the lack of international support for negotiations with the IMF. The welcome of the Spanish and Portuguese socialist governments promises little support for the IMF's board of directors. That's what you have on hand for the moment. The candidate's round regarding the EU / Mercosur agreement can help Spanish ruler, Pedro Sánchez, to sponsor a possible Fernández government before Germany and France, which weigh in on the body's decisions.

But the real power lies in Washington, where Kirchnerism has a long history to purge. And everything is more unpredictable in the era of tweets and diplomacy without rules of Donald Trump: in the case of Fernandez, a world to discover.

The strongest letter that Fernández expects to receive is the result of the elections. He hopes to expand the margin of the STEP to show its legitimacy at the IMF table and at the same time a popular rejection of the program signed with Macri. Some diplomatic experts are wary of this logic of going "to negotiate with a won referendum". Years ago, the Greek leftist government tried – admired and visited by Cristina – and found itself in a fiasco, forced to apply an even higher adjustment than the one it had the intention to avoid.

They take into account that the IMF will not send the planned $ 5,400 million disbursement in September. The government agrees. Nothing will move before the entry into office of the new authorities in October, with the Bulgarian Kristalina Georgieva as general manager. The question is: Will it come before or after the 27th election? The opposition believes that this must happen with the result set, as a prelude to formal negotiations with the next government. The Pink House is waiting in reverse. a gesture from the Fund that provides oxygen to avoid a new jolt of the market.

These tensions are muted again. Macri and Fernández speak more than they did, without ever giving up a mutual inquiry. On the other hand there are other contacts between the leader and the most friendly opposition, with Horacio Rodríguez Larreta, Maria Eugenia Vidal and, above all, Hernán Lacunza, who has revealed himself to be a politician pragmatic, two traits that were rare in his predecessors.

These links could be the key to Fernandez, if he wins. To have a current opposition is a necessity for him, urged to show restraint and to deny the thesis that Kirchnerism is pursuing an authoritarian return. It will no longer have to convince Argentine voters of this, but foreign governments capable of marking their fate.