Alarm for central reserves: it is on the verge of bankruptcy

Accounts do not close anywhere. The electoral scenario accelerates – as usual – speculation and the need to cover a possible loss of value of the Argentine peso after the elections.

A few days ago, Urgente24 reflected information on the financial scope that should be retained: "International experts estimate BCRA could spend more than US $ 18 billion, ie total net reserves " in currency exchanges from now until December.

Currently, the gross reserves of the Central Bank amount to 68 430 million USD.. However, if IMF dollars are discounted, borrowings from the Basel International Bank (BIS), exchange with China and dollar deposits in the financial system, net reserves only rise to $ 15.1 billion. The result is derived from figures badyzed by the Macroview consulting firm, led by economists Carlos Melconián and Rodolfo Santángelo.

Thus, the IMF allowed Mauricio Macri to intervene in the exchange rate to at least preserve a margin of governance in the face of elections. If the power station loses its ability to surprise in the city, it loses part of its reason for being. As a result, not reporting on actions to end a currency swap was considered positive.

In turn, after disbursement of $ 10,835 million on April 8, the IMF evaluates 90% of the Stand By credit before the elections of October continue with an orderly exit of financial investors.

According to the economist Maximilian MontenegroOn June 15 and September 15, some US $ 5,400 million will be disbursed, for a total of US $ 10,800 million.

"This would complete, before the October 27 election, the disbursement of nearly 90% of total credit, or about US $ 51 billion in just over a year, starting in June 2018"he drew.

In turn, detailed: "For the next government, there will be only two small disbursements: in 2020, some US $ 3.9 billion will cover the first loan repayments of US $ 2,300 million this year. There, he will cover one-third of the $ 6,000 million US payment that will have to be paid to the agency the same year.

In 2022 and 2023, the last two years of management of the next government, will come the two big deadlines to repay the debt to the IMF: 22 100 million USD and 23 300 million USDrespectively. "

Argentina does not have a short-term growth horizon, but it is not the presidential figures, but the urgency of renegotiating debt and debt. 39, try to generate real dollars, through structural reforms.