Alberto F. breaks the truce and accelerates the sale of assets

The political campaign, beyond taking almost 20 points from his rival, forces Alberto Fernández to play at the limit. He had already done so before the OSP when he had planned a devaluation (which was accomplished) and declared that the debt was unpayable and that it was necessary to "renegotiate" ( which had reduced the country's risk to nearly 1,800 points).

Then, at the request of Mauricio Macri himself, the speech was moderated, so that the transition to October is as violent as possible in terms of economic costs. But, again, Alberto F. and his team kicked the box again and the market reacted as expected: the central bank had to sell $ 302 million of its own resources, plus the usual $ 60 million of the Treasury, so that the dollar does not rise as much (1 peso more than Monday at the wholesaler).

In addition, the country risk measured by JP Morgan has flown by nearly 10% to remain at 2,000 basis points, which represents a new wave of sales of Argentine bonds. "They play with fire and do not realize that the biggest damage will be him, who will receive it in December," said a local fund manager.

The trigger of one of the most tense financial days after the chaos August 12 (when the market was playing with PASO already solved) was the "pyrotechnic" statement issued Monday afternoon after its meeting with the IMF.

In this document, far from being moderate, the Kirchnerist space strongly criticized the credit agency. "Those who generated this crisis, the government and the IMF, have the responsibility to put an end to the social disaster that is going through a growing part of the Argentine society today and to reverse it," he said. the document at the end of the meeting.

This contrasted sharply with what Fund spokesmen said after the meeting: "This exchange of views has been productive".

Moreover, and unofficially, they said that the Fund feared a "power vacuum" that generated the primaries and that it was proposed to advance the elections. The latter was categorically denied by the spokesmen of the body.

"There was an inflammatory message from the Front of All, blaming the agency for all the failures of the country, whereas in fact it would have been normal for them to start kindly presenting what will be the next program Albert will negotiate. But it would seem that they would have to negotiate hard with the agency, with the risk of being in default if they do not succeed well ", they interpreted from another local fund which advises clients on 'foreign.

These managers said that foreign investors made very high sales of local debt. "At this point, you do not know what they're going to do, if they're going to offer a bargain or bargain with the knife between their teeth or not at all." And in that sense, no one wants to be side of the bond creditor, "they summarized.

he The end of the truce between the government and Kirchnerism caused another high-impact financial cimbronazo. The official acknowledged receipt and held an emergency meeting at the Government House to badyze the situation of the markets: Hernán Lacunza (Treasury), Guido Sandleris (BCRA), Marcos Peña and Maria Eugenia Vidal. They blamed Kirchnerism for lack of financial control on Tuesday.

And they found the following course:

– The retail dollar rose to 58.66 dollars (a forty peso more than Monday) despite sales of BCRA. He even agreed that on Tuesday, the Fund's delegation had met with plant officials at the entity's headquarters. They monitored the heavily altered foreign exchange market with a sizeable volume flow (which confirms prices).

-The Central Bank reserves fell another $ 442 million on Tuesday. $ 8,837 million has already been lost due to the STEP effect. Central coffers rose to 57 473 million US dollars at the end of Tuesday.

– Part of the drainage of the reserves, in addition to the sale of dollars, is explained by the exit of deposits in dollars. The currency term loans, even though they still have a solid stock, have fallen by about 3 billion dollars (9% of the system) since Alberto Fernández won the primary.

The discussion and fear on the market also goes through the disbursement of US $ 5.4 billion expected – a priori by 15 September. It is believed that the agency will be willing to transfer these resources, but increasing political tensions and lack of definitions could mean that they do not happen in time and form ".

Carlos Melconian, close to Macri but critical of economic management, launched "friendly fire" precisely this Tuesday. He warned that without the disbursement of the Fund, it would be difficult for the Government to close this year's financial program. "In this scenario, the disbursement of the fund is very necessary," said Melconian at an event bringing together entrepreneurs.

The truth is that, in the market, they fear that political tensions will affect badet prices. "The data that the market is mainly looking at is mainly the refinancing rate, the IMF's decision and the dynamics of the reserves.that is, how many deposits leave the financial system daily in dollars (which we now average $ 300-400,000 per day), which goes directly to the safe, to accounts at the same time. foreigners or badets that are not. They are Argentinian. Proof that there is a lot of caution, "says Matías Roig, director of Portfolio Personal Inversiones.

For the moment, this Wednesday and in the midst of financial tensions, the Treasury will have a testo. He will try to shorten the duration of the letters. It has maturities of $ 2,542 million and launches a new call for tenders for Letes (in dollars) and (Lecaps) as well as a reopening of Letes. This is not the best time for this operation and in the market, they fear that this is beyond the institutional investors, others prefer to watch the film from the outside.

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