Alberto fears that Macri is leaving him a "bomb plan"

They will not mention it publicly during the October 27 campaign. But the discomfort exists. In the team that advises Alberto Fernández to the economy, they are already talking about some sort of "Bomba Plan".

Basically, they accuse Mauricio Macri of the legacy he will leave to his successor (almost certain). But also, according to the latest measures announced by Casa Rosada, some of which have a specific expiry date, with an inevitable cost, both economic and political, for the "next day".

It all boils down to the state of the economy next Wednesday, December 11th, the day when, everything suggests, Alberto F. will have his first day at Casa Rosada. In Argentina today, where luck is defined every 24 hours, risking what can happen within 100 days seems more like a task for a seer than for an economist.

Nevertheless, the truth is that there are unavoidable problems. This will be part of the "furniture" that the next president will receive. Part of the legacy is already known and has long been part of the public debate. Public debt is the main variable on the horizon.

After the last move of the dollar, which brought the price down to nearly $ 60, the future of Central Bank reserves returned to center stage. The loss of dollars in recent weeks has revived the debate over the management of reserves.

In addition, in the week following the primary elections, Casa Rosada launched a series of measures aimed above all at benefiting the middle clbad that has ceased to accompany its ruling party vote.

Near Fernández, they believe that some of these initiatives were purely electoral. And for the same reason, Alberto F. reprimanded Macri and claimed a behavior more than a head of state than a candidate.

The truth is that, from the point of view of the winning opposition to Primary, many of these initiatives will carry a burden, such as freezing fuel prices or utility rates. On the other hand, others may seem less problematic, such as eliminating VAT outside of the basic food basket. But nobody escapes the announcement that Macri took a silver bullet on his competitor for the probable time of his arrival at the Rosada.

Indeed, Alberto Fernández left last Friday with a series of tweets criticizing this measure. "It does not seem reasonable to reduce VAT indistinctly as it was done, it will not result in lower prices, it will surely become an additional profit for companies." It would have been preferable to return VAT to the most important sectors. delayed, "said the candidate. with a very critical tone of initiative.

At the same time, he accused the executive power of defining the provinces at about $ 1.5 billion, since VAT is a tax shared between the nation and the districts of the interior.

In the circle of "albertismo", they identify between six and seven variables that together form the "bomb plan". Which, seen from the other side of the crack, can be interpreted as an "operational revenge match".

A kind of retaliation against the scenario inherited at the time by Macri de Cristina Kirchner, which included the delay of the tariff and the exchange rate, as well as future transactions on the dollar market.

Shot of bomb or pure smoke?

An examination of these variables, which will be inherited by those who will lead the country since August 11, will badyze the challenges and conditions that will arise:

1. Reservations: This is the hottest topic because of the steady decline. In the first two weeks after STEP, the drop exceeded $ 7.4 billion, a figure that ignited alarms.

The truth is that Hernán Lacunza has already indicated that the reserves would be used in case of a new crisis in the markets. Even his words were more categorical than those of Guido Sandleris.

Lacunza's message goes against Alberto Fernández's idea: take care of the BCRA's heritage. The volatility of the markets will depend on the remaining dollars – thinks the candidate – once he supposes and has to sit down to solve the debt problem.

"If there are only a few dollars left, the vision that Argentina will fall by default – or in a hostile renegotiation – will be inevitable.We already have a lot of problems to add to an empty central bank," he said. said one of Alberto F.'s advisers.

2. Debt with the IMF: The Front de Todos candidate has already said that the debt issue is what worried him the most. He also announced that he will give priority to a renegotiation of liabilities with the agency. The main argument for this review will be that the Fund has provided dollars to the Macri government. And this (if necessary) should take care of this company.

Of course, the task will not be simple. Washington also has very valid arguments to refute this political position. In the team of Alberto F., they think that the strength of the negotiation will depend on the way it comes at that time. "It must be clear that the Fund was jointly responsible for the crisis.His recipe has again failed," said a member of the team. In the same vein, the former chief of staff issued a difficult document Monday in which he asked the IMF and Macrismo to put an end to "the social catastrophe that is now going through a growing part of the Argentine society ".

It is not easy. Argentina will depend, in the coming years, on the fact that the Fund's Board of Directors is not loosing itself. It was clear last week: when markets found that this support did not exist, bonds steepened their downfall and the dollar threatened further escalation.

3. Frozen price fuels: this is a very sensitive issue. The reaction of the governors of the oil provinces, who resign funds in case of gasoline loss in the face of inflation and the exchange rate, has already been seen.

But beyond political issues, the truth is that if the government keeps prices at suppliers unchanged over the next 90 days, oil companies will have accumulated a deficit that will be hard to remove "on the 91st day ".

In fact, there are already estimates of a liter of gasoline over $ 60 when the actual price is "sincere".

Current values ​​were placed with a dollar of $ 46. And at that time, the oil companies had warned that the price was behind by 11%.

For this reason, Alberto's bet is that it is Macri himself who badumes this difference. Obviously, he does not want to look like "the adjuster". And Argentina (Kirchnerism itself) knows what happens when the price of fuels is lagging behind: it is missing suppliers directly.

4. Elimination of VAT on food: without the seriousness of the case of the essence, also plays here the policy. The provincial leaders were the first to complain about the fiscal imbalance related to the lack of VAT collection (the provinces take a share for the co-participation).

If necessary, Alberto F. does not wish to appear as president, restoring VAT on products in the basic basket, which would inevitably involve an increase in the prices of milk, noodles or flour.

The situation involves an uncomfortable dilemma for the Frente de Todos candidate: if it ends with the exemption, it will be left in front of public opinion as stunning with a popular measure, but if it keeps the VAT at 0 %, it will be facing the same governors with those who aspire to build their own political support base.

5. Leliq-Interest Rate: The "Leliq bomb" was Fernández's first "complaint" during the campaign. It was the way to install the economic debate. If you arrive at Casa Rosada, the challenge will be to disarm this ball and lower the benchmark interest rate.

Of course, it is not pure voluntarism. The only way to achieve this goal will be to restore confidence, something that was lost with the explosion of the crisis.

The cost of money at 75% per year is due to the total loss of this trust by the economic agents. And, given the inflation outlook for the months to come after the devaluation, there is no indication that the central bank intends to release the hard monetary squeeze, with which it aspires to return to the bearish path of inflation.

In other words, Fernández would debut with the current scenario of high rates and a Leliqs stock of about $ 1.2 billion, or about 5% of GDP. And with little leeway to change this situation – which he criticized during the campaign – without generating new inflationary turbulence.

Whether Macri or Fernandez, the only way for the economy to normalize will be to regain lost trust. Whether it is one or the other, the "inheritance received" argument will no longer be valid. At this stage of the crisis, voters (on both sides) want solutions.

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