Alberto Fernández chairs a Mercosur summit emptied of its content and in the midst of a geopolitical crisis

Amid the health, social and economic crisis caused by the pandemic, Alberto Fernández will chair a Mercosur summit that will be formal, virtual and scheduled for 60 minutes.: a limited time considering that Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay face COVID-19 alone and with fear of a second wave that could execute a deadly tragedy among the population of founding members of the regional forum which today celebrates its 30 years of institutional existence.

The ideological differences and personal styles of the four presidents conspired against the possibility of paying limited homage to the strategic idea of ​​the creation of a multilateral body – envisioned by Raúl Alfonsín and José Sarney in 1985, and finally consolidated in the Treaty. from 1991 to 1991. Asunción. -, to move forward later on a common agenda that envisions the current pandemic crisis and design a long-term plan to grow in a global system that appears uncertain and dystopian.

Mercosur is a regional forum which suffers from anomie and is unable to resolve its own contradictions. Alberto Fernández believes that the multilateral organization must be strengthened and this implies postponing the decision to “make its internal operations more flexible”. Jair Bolsonaro, meanwhile, is attached to flexibility as this implies the possibility of concluding bilateral agreements outside the three other Mercosur partners.

Luis Lacalle Pou and Mario Abdo Benítez, accompany Bolsonaro’s position. For the heads of state of Uruguay and Paraguay, this possible flexibilization program opens up a possible backlog of treaties with European, Asian and American countries. Uruguay and Paraguay have low country risk, low inflation and do not owe the International Monetary Fund (IMF) $ 44 trillion.

Argentina opposes the easing pushed by Bolsonaro, Lacalle Pou and Benítez, and as this structural reform needs the will of the four partners, Mercosur will continue with an approved legal and commercial logic while the Soviet Union still existed and no one knew Barack Obama.

In addition to the fruitless debate on the flexibility of Mercosur, Alberto Fernández, Bolsonaro, Lacalle Pou and Benítez differ over the possible solution to the populist crisis in Venezuela. The Argentine president considers that dictator Nicolás Maduro should be part of the negotiations to open a democratic transition, while his counterparts in Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay think the exact opposite.

And this geopolitical counterpoint was confirmed with Alberto Fernández’s decision to leave the Lima Group., a multilateral forum that was created to end the populist regime of Maduro and put Venezuela on the path to a democratic system. Only Brazil and Paraguay make up the Lima Group, but Uruguay has always criticized Maduro and his authoritarian government.

Along with the structural disagreements that paralyze Mercosur, we must add the personal and ideological differences that Alberto Fernández and Bolsonaro highlight. Argentina and Brazil are the main partners of Mercosur, and if their presidents do not get along as they have so far, it is impossible for the regional forum to change gears and be able to work out a plan. in view of the post-World COVID-19 pandemic.

Alberto Fernández supports the Treaty of Paris on climate change, sees the alleged corruption trials against Lula da Silva as a matter of lawfare and bets on the full functioning of the Mercosur-European Union agreement. Bolsonaro, on these three key issues on the global and regional agenda, is against it.

Internal differences – structural and personal – obscured the possibility of a closed-door debate between the four main partners of Mercosur. The region is suffering from COVID-19 and the future ahead looks tragic and uncertain. However, Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay have agreed to design an official Mercosur summit and postpone the substantive debate to a meeting to be hosted by foreign ministers in Buenos Aires.

The summit will start at 10 a.m. Each founding member – Alberto Fernández, Bolsonaro, Benítez and Lacalle Pou – will speak for 10 minutes each. Then Sebastián Piñera and Luis Arce, as presidents of the associated states of Chile and Bolivia, will have 5 minutes at their disposal. Finally, the Minister of Foreign Affairs Felipe Solá will use another 5 minutes to present the citizenship status of Mercosur (CCE).

In other words, the Mercosur summit to review its history and reflect on the future insertion of the regional bloc, will have a formal duration of 55 minutes. With a planned extension of an additional 5 minutes, if the speeches are prolonged or if an unforeseen circumstance arises. Total: one hour.

A bit of time in front of the second wave of COVID-19, the economic situation in Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay, and a hard-to-understand international board featuring Joseph Biden and Xi Jinping.

Very prepared speeches are expected by Alberto Fernández – who will speak about the Bicentenary Museum -, Bolsonaro, Benítez and Lacalle Pou. And nothing more.

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