Alberto Fernández found in Cafiero a Minister of Foreign Affairs who understands his geopolitical agenda and does not have a single personal difference

The foreign policy conceived by Alberto Fernández and executed by Felipe Solá did not work and caused avoidable diplomatic crises with Mercosur, Organization of American States (OAS), United Nations (UN), White House, European Union (EU), Community of Latin American and Caribbean States (CELAC), Bank Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) and the Latin American Development Bank (CAF).

Solá had little training in external relations to occupy the San Martín Palace, but Alberto Fernández did not help him too much in its management.. He distrusted his then chancellorHe consulted with other government actors to mark the tribunal for him and he carried out diplomatic acts that shattered basic norms of international politics.

The President recognized the electoral triumphs of Joseph biden (United States) and Pedro Castillo (Peru) before the official pronouncement in Washington and Lima, assured that he was not aware of the human rights situation in Cuba and excluded Solá from the formal preparation of the visit of the Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez.

Santiago Cafiero never thought of occupying the 13th floor of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. And for now, he starts off with an advantage: he’s a personal friend of Alberto Fernández, and he can call him on his cell phone without notifying him first via WhatsApp. This did not happen with Solá.

“The geopolitical agenda is defined by Alberto Fernández, and I, at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, will carry out his instructions”Cafiero has anticipated the Palacio San Martín line.

This means that the new Minister of Foreign Affairs will carry out the roadmap already established by the President, and that the changes will only be linked to the methods and the search for certain diplomatic results which have not yet reached the administration of the United States. Todos front.

In any case, if Cafiero fails to get Alberto Fernández to stick to his own geopolitical scenario and understands that there is no need to reinterpret invoice world diplomacy textbooks written 150 years ago, his role as chancellor will suffer the same institutional difficulties as his predecessor Solá.

Cafiero assumes he needs to reset his daily access to information, and in the last three days he has changed his reading material. We no longer read so many reports on the suburbs, unemployment, the leakage of voices and the possible purchase of vaccines from the Cuban dictatorial regime.

Last Friday, at his Chancellery office, Cafiero had a photocopy of the best biography written on Angela Merkel. And the main article of the last edition of the British magazine The Economist had already been there, which covers the request for resignation of Kristalina Georgieva, Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

Solá did not wait for his arrival at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and Cafiero got to work a few minutes after taking the oath at the Casa Rosada Bicentennial Museum. The Minister of Foreign Affairs made three first international calls: one Daniel Scioli, in Brasilia; To Jorge Arguello in Washington, and finally, in Sabino Vaca Narvaja, which is stationed in Beijing.

He maintains excellent relations with the three ambassadors, and with all three he decided to centralize a geopolitical agenda that was moving forward at his own pace, it covered the old Chancellery and was directly connected to the first floor of the Casa Rosada. Scioli, Arguello and Vaca Narvaja knew the detainees at Palacio, and they moved accordingly.

“I’m going to start with Brazil, there we have to rebuild. There will be no Mercosur fracture, tariff flexibility must be negotiated over time, and then the relationship will flow. I bet on a summit of the presidents of Mercosur in Brasilia. It will be at the end of the year. We all need a united regional bloc “Cafiero explained to his closest staff.

-And Uruguay? They are very advanced with China-, opines an adviser who lives almost in his shadow.

–We will see. I speak with the Chinese, and it is not as much as it is claimed in Uruguay. We are important to Beijing, and they are not going to formalize an agreement that could complicate the bilateral relationship with Argentina.Coffee tree closed.

China has an ambitious plan for the country. It tries to build nuclear power plants, take over the supply of 5G technology for communications, fund lithium and solar panel companies, and participate in the sale of war material for the armed forces.

Cafiero understands that there is a unspoken cold war between the United States and China, but at the same time argues that it is possible to have bilateral relations with the two powers and to maintain geopolitical equidistance. “We know nuclear energy, and the Chinese are offering us to build a nuclear power station in Argentina. Why should we reject this project a priori ”, the chancellor reflects in front of his work team.

-Does the president go to China in February? –they asked the minister.

-It is provided. Depends on the pandemic-he has answered.

With Arguello, the Argentine ambassador in Washington, Cafiero had long conversations on his cell phone. The Chancellor needed to know how Joseph Biden’s administration is doing after the fall of Kabul, what was happening on Capitol Hill and in what case the bilateral relations are.

Arguello knows the power and backdrops of Washington, and Cafiero has finished assuming that Argentina is on the bottom line of the White House’s geopolitical priorities. There is an institutional dialogue and joint projects – the climate change agenda, for example -, But everything will become dramatic when it comes to asking Biden to influence the negotiations with the IMF.

Martin guzman He’s betting on Kristalina Georgieva to strike an extended facilities deal, and the information coming out of DC is that the IMF Managing Director is on the edge of the institutional cliff. Georgieva has been accused of manipulating a technical report in favor of China – while she held a key position at the World Bank – and in the Oval Room they don’t rule out the indications becoming solid legal evidence.

“I want a meeting between Alberto (Fernández) and (Joseph) Biden. It would be very important to prove that our government has an open diplomatic agenda and without ideological prejudices ”, Cafiero advanced to Palacio San Martín.

Arguello is working on a visit by Alberto Fernández to the United States. But it is uncertain that this diplomatic act will be consummated in 2021. On the other hand, the Argentine ambassador in Washington does not rule out a formal meeting between the president and Biden at the G20 summit in Rome. This official photo, a few weeks before the November elections, has great political value for the government.

Cafiero has decided to keep all ambassadors in their posts, and has yet to define his first trip as Chancellor. Meanwhile, the Minister of Foreign Affairs is studying a negotiation path for Alberto Fernández to become president of CELAC.

This diplomatic post depends on the political will of Daniel Ortega. The Nicaraguan dictator demands that Argentina change its condemnation of the authoritarian regime, accused in international forums of having imprisoned all the political opposition. If Alberto Fernández accepted Ortega’s demands, his presidency at CELAC would be assured.

“We don’t. We never support Ortega. There was an error in the diplomatic statement and in the public communication. That is why we are withdrawing the ambassador in Managua, because we are against political persecution.”Cafiero clarified to the Foreign Ministry.

Cristina Fernández de Kirchner’s public summons to the president turned Cafiero into chancellor. Alberto Fernández could not withstand the political pressure and asked him to step down as chief of staff. CFK would have preferred his direct resignation, and La Cámpora and Instituto Patria are already shooting at the Minister of Foreign Relations.

Cafiero knows it. And he has already ordered a copy – in English or in French – of the classic “In praise of betrayal “. A key work in political science which explains that Potential allies become deadly enemies when the survival of power is at stake.

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