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Whatever the winner in October, the flow of money from
MFIs to Argentina will decrease significantly next year. The certainty of the lending calendar and the context of a fragile economy have shaped the last hours of Argentine politics with the rigor of reality.
The paroxysm of moderation shown by the Frente de Todos candidate,
Alberto Fernandezwithin the framework of "Democracy and Development",
Clarín Group, has become the exemplary example of the pragmatism that the context imposes: debt payment guarantees, differentiation with Guillermo Moreno's commercial policy, proposals for a "courteous" relationship with Donald Trump, abandoning the controversy with Jair Bolsonaro, critics at the intervention of Indec; one after the other, Fernandez's main definitions, while referring to a "Héctor" relating to Magneto, CEO of Clarin, were baked in the heat of the moment's needs.
"Moderation is necessary to attract some of the four million Argentines who did not vote for Alberto or
Macribecause we must exceed 50% in October to be able to sit down with the Fund and negotiate with force ", translates the ally of the winner of the primaries.His candidate highlights the differences,
Cristina Kirchner Maintains a tactical silence.
Alberto Fernández convinced two million voters who had gone to other forces to vote for Kirchnerism again. If the October election confirms him as the winner, Fernandez must convince the Bulgarian
Kristalina Georgieva, the economist who chairs the IMF and the powers of the rest of the world who have authorized a record loan of $ 56.3 billion, that the metamorphosis demonstrated by the candidate regarding the policies of his formulaic partner will also correlate in the Argentina's relations with the world.
Kristalina Georgieva's penchant for guitar from her years of studies at Sofia University, and that she still practices at the age of 65, appears as the only undeniable coincidence with the Peronist candidate. The others are still puzzles on the horizon.
Faced with the weakness of the economy, the renegotiation of the agreement gradually installs as an inevitable future. Mauricio Macri cemented the support of the IMF through the alliance which has forged links with the United States and major European countries, and on the foundations for sharing common positions on geopolitical issues, such as the rejection of Venezuelan regime, the condemnation of Iran and the promotion of democracy. The opening of markets. Fernández de Kirchner chose opposite paths on only three axes. This can be a heavy legacy that the candidate can not regret publicly.
The former ambbadadors, Jorge Arguello and Carlos Bettini, are currently working to reverse the world's constraints on Kirchnerism. They appeal to the ultimate prominence of realism. "We must not forget that Trump was selling apartments," says a negotiator with the hope that pragmatism will eventually prevail. There was already contact with the American authorities. But for now, they are devoting themselves to listening.
The anagram that leads Cristina to Kristalina also obsesses the government. Market stability is not enough to win an election, but it is a necessary condition to be able to cope with the competition. The first question concerns the confirmation of the US $ 5,400 million disbursement that the IMF planned to transfer in September.
Casa Rosada spent the last weeks of the tumult motivated by the result of the primary reaction. But the priorities indicated by the different sectors within the government have shown differences in the diagnosis. On the flank of pragmatism, where stand out figures such as Minister Rogelio Frigerio, it is urgent to calm the confrontation and calm the funds before the campaign resumes, with the conviction that, at the level of the crisis, the victory It was possible to return to the ring before throwing again shots at the opponent. "We must first arrive," they warn with some sadness.
This belief in the urgency of the moment has built the bridge that allowed the two telephone conversations between Macri and Fernández, which correlated with the easing of the instability of the last days of the week. For Frigerio, her dialogue with Peronism led Elisa Carrió to target her and to accuse her of a particular favoritism towards the governors who, in her opinion, weakened the candidates themselves in the provinces.
"The resistance of the governors has not been able to reduce the gains before," Carrió said. For the leader of the Civic Coalition, last Sunday's meeting in Olivos, July 5, was decisive in restoring support for the presidential figure and returning to the road for October after the initial turmoil. "Some wanted too early to become drivers of the transition," condemned Carrió.
The diagnoses differ. Be that as it may, no one can deny that the wall that must be escalated by the ruling party to reclaim the electoral ground has been erected as a debris of economic disappointment. The macro-campaign is now forced to bring to aridity to temper the malaise of the recession.
The first hours after the election, a minister of Maria Eugenia Vidal remembered a book containing tips to educate the children that she had bought when she was a father for the first time. The manual recommended never to react moved by anger. It was quite the opposite of the presidential reaction at the time after Fernandez's victory at the primaries. The temperance of these tips can be helpful in these times of anxiety.
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