Alberto Fernández makes a geopolitical bet in Latin America without the support of Mercosur and under the diplomatic gaze of the United States

Alberto Fernández made a bold geopolitical move last night to get Argentina to control CAF, a development bank in Latin America that will be a key player in the region to finance public works that will mitigate the social, economic and health consequences caused by COVID-19.

The geopolitical movement consisted in proposing to Christian Asinelli, current undersecretary for international financial relations, at the head of CAF. Asinelli works alongside Gustavo Beliz -Secretary for Strategic Affairs-, has an academic background and is familiar with the workings of multilateral organizations.

“It is not a question of a country’s candidacy, nor of an ideology, nor of a circumstantial majority. It is about projecting the new Latin American Development Bank from the culture of dialogue and agreements which has transformed it into the fastest growing regional financial institution over the past two decades, ”Beliz argued in Asinelli’s letter of appointment.

Argentina’s official candidacy is supported by Bolivia, Venezuela and the Dominican Republic. Beliz waited for Mexico to back Asinelli’s nomination, but there was an unexpected bureaucratic problem and the secretary presented the guarantees with the alternative signing of the Dominican Republic.

Anyway, on a preliminary account, Argentina has the support of Spain, Portugal, Bolivia, Venezuela, Mexico, Dominican Republic and Trinidad and Tobago. That is to say: Asinelli already has nine voices, because Bolivia and Venezuela have a double vote, and the Dominican Republic does not participate in the election of the head of CAF.

Asinelli’s candidacy is haunted by Sergio Díaz Granados, a well-known economist in Washington who was nominated for CAF by Colombia, Ecuador and Peru. Díaz Granados was not in nobody’s plans, But the social crisis in Colombia weighed on Iván Duque’s first option. It was Alberto Carrasquilla, former Minister of Finance, who drew up a tax reform that put his country on a war footing.

The appearance of Peru supporting the candidate of Colombia and Ecuador will lead to a formal challenge by Argentina. It happens that Pedro Castillo, elected president of Peru, agree with Evo Morales that he would vote for the candidate presented by Alberto Fernández.

However, Francisco Sagasti, who is still the president of Peru, has decided he will support Diaz Granados’ candidacy. As the election of the new CAF chief will take place on July 5, from a formal point of view, there would be no room for contestation. Sagasti will still be in constitutional power and there is no legal reason to override his political decision.

In this context, and if Argentina’s challenge does not succeed, Díaz Granados would have the voices of Colombia, Ecuador and Peru. Total: 6 entries. The three countries are founding members of CAF and each has a double vote.

Argentina is a member of Mercosur and its partners are Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay. Asinelli dreams of votes from the regional bloc, but until last night Jair Bolsonaro, Mario Abdo Benítez and Luis Lacalle Pou were inclined to support the candidate Díaz Granados.

There are reserved negotiations with Benítez and Lacalle Pou -Alberto Fernández considers that Bolsonaro is already a hopeless case-, and yesterday it was sworn at Casa Rosada that Paraguay and Uruguay consider their compromise position with Colombia.

Benítez and Pou have ideological differences with Alberto Fernández and feel more comfortable with Duque. A political sensation that will cost him dearly to change the Argentine head of state. Without these votes, plus Chile’s current reluctance, Asinelli’s arrival on the CAF board could be complicated.

The United States has pledged not to question Alberto Fernandez’s geopolitical ambitions. Juan González, Joseph Biden’s senior adviser for Latin America, assured the president that there would be no black ball for Asinelli. It happened during a remote lunch they shared two months ago at Olivos Farm.

But Argentina refrained yesterday from condemning the Nicaraguan dictatorship during a session of the Standing Committee of the Organization of American States (OAS). The White House had asked Alberto Fernández to explicitly condemn the Sandinista regime and was disappointed when it found out that Casa Rosada had chosen to abstain along with Mexico, Belize, Honduras and the Dominican Republic.

Washington has already moved from implicit support for Argentina – it does not vote in CAF – to a position of diplomatic caution. That means Biden can let Asinelli run or tip the scales in favor of Diaz Granados. So far, in the Oval Room, they consider Duque to be more predictable than Alberto Fernández.

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