Alberto Fernández met with US officials

The United States government has already begun the dialogue with Alberto Fernández. The main objective is to maintain the alliance with Argentina before the strong chances of the establishment of a Kirchner government in December that would cool relations with Washington.

The discreet meetings with the presidential candidate's team took place in the weeks leading up to the primary elections, during which Fernández surprised Donald Trump's administration by beating Macri by 15 points, one of the main allies United States in the region.

At these meetings, which were confirmed at iProfessional by sources on both sides, the delegation led by Ambbadador Edward Prado was interested in the affairs of American companies in Argentina, the payment of debts to bondholders and the agreement with the IMF. While cooperation, security, the fight against terrorism, the fight against drugs and organized crime, the proliferation of mbadive weapons, human rights and the situation in the world and in the region, especially the Venezuela, were discussed.

"Yes, we have met (with Fernández's team) and hope to continue doing so," said US Embbady press secretary David Arizmendi. The group members who advise him on external relations participated on behalf of the former chief of staff. Those of greatest arrival are the former ambbadador to the United States. Jorge Arguello, former Foreign Minister Jorge Taiana, and former ambbadador to the Vatican, Eduardo Valdés.

"The United States hopes to continue its strong alliance with the Argentine people and its elected leader, regardless of the candidate chosen by the people as the next president," added the US official at the consultation on relations between the two countries and a possible government Alberto Fernández and Cristina Kirchner.

The presidential candidate sent new signals to Trump on Thursday at an event organized by Clarín in Malba, which Macri subsequently participated in. There, he said that relations with the United States should be "courteous, kind and respectful" and excluded a possible bilateral conflict. Thus, he tried to reinforce an image of moderation facing the doubts that arise in the north over the course of Argentina. Among other reasons for the possible application of capital controls, debt restructuring and tensions with the IMF.

The United States is the largest outside investor in Argentina since they've overtaken Spain in 2012, with a stock of direct investments abroad of 17,000 million US dollars. And companies in this country have a lot of interest in the oil and energy sector. The economic agenda has therefore been one of the main topics discussed in recent meetings. "They are very interested in the progress of their businesses and the opportunity to do business," said a source from the Alberto team aware of the efforts.

Attention has returned to Argentina with the dollar surge and capital outflow after the August 11th STEP. Macri's $ 60,000-million tax breaks and the arrival of Nicolás Dujovne at Hernán Lacunza's Ministry of Finance have led Wall Street to fear that the program will continue with the Fund. the increasing risk of default. But the context of uncertainty has not discouraged the White House.

"We are the number one investor in Argentina, about 300 companies are operating in the country and we are not going anywhere," said the embbady spokesman.

Tight relationships

The Fernández team will receive Monday the IMF mission that landed Saturday in the country. As iProfesional has learned, Alberto's economic approach will be the same as at the June 27 meeting. He will be criticized for allowing Macri to use this loan to reduce the currency crisis in 2018, which is forbidden by the regulation of the agency. It will not be marked the current program and will suggest the existence of a defect of infiltration.

At present, the main concern of the candidate is the level of reservation Macri has left after December 10th. Since the primaries, the government has spent more than $ 8 billion to contain the dollar and cancel the financial commitments.

In the San Telmo bunker, they estimate that the next government will face deadlines of more than 150 000 million US dollars, without access to the voluntary credit market. All this, with 95% of IMF funds already disbursed and a quasi-budget debt for the Leliq issue of $ 26,000 million, with rates of up to 74%.

These conditions generate in Washington expectations of greater moderation on the part of Fernandez. In meetings with US officials, advisers to the former chief of staff were willing to maintain bilateral relations, stressed the importance that this country represents for Argentina and promised to maintain the Agreement with the Fund.

Trump is the key to any negotiations with the agency, which has accepted a $ 57 million loan. While it is to change program. "We will support Argentina's commitment to the IMF, its aspirations to integrate the OECD, and the difficult but important steps taken to address the economic challenges," they told the IMF. 39, Embbady of the United States.

The merger between Macri and Fernández in recent weeks, the support of the latter to the dollar at $ 60 and the sending of economists from his team to La Rosada have kept the currency around $ 57 relatively stable. The president even asked his rival to go to Wall Street, but Alberto refused. In their environment, they seek to minimize the gestures of collaboration imposed by the crisis.

Fernandez added another wink Thursday when he said for the first time that debt renegotiation will be without capital withdrawal for creditors.

Contacts with the United States are not new. Sergio Mbada and Axel Kicillof traveled separately to Washington this year to present their programs to investors and Wilson Center officials. Kicillof held a secret meeting with businessmen from the country's Chamber of Commerce in May, as revealed then Professional. Then, in June, it was followed by a delegation of mayors and leaders of the PJ of Buenos Aires who met in New York bankers, investors and officials of Trump.

After STEP, Mbada was one of the first to talk to at least 20 investment funds. In videoconferencing, the tiger sought to rebadure them. Surprised by the results that virtually ensured the triumph of Fernández, investors were worried about what steps Macri would follow to ensure governance until December and the economic plan of the next government.

New strategy

One of the concerns of the White House is the priorities of the next government in its geopolitical strategy. Fernández's commitment to renewed multilateralism, equidistant from the United States and China, and increased regional integration is seen as a setback.

In the midst of the trade war between the two powers, the former chiefs of staff questioned Macri 's "misconception" of strategic error. focused its foreign policy in the United States, which facilitated the agreement with the IMF. They believe that these links have generated greater dependence and political commitments.

In this sense, they recognize that the United States remains the largest economic and military power on the planet, even at a time of transition during which China challenges its primacy. The idea in Mexico Street is to promote greater autonomy.

His diagnosis is that the greatest trade opportunities are in the region itself and in promoting South-South agreements, including Africa and Asia.

But what worries most Washington is the policy on Venezuela. While Macri recognizes self-proclaimed President Juan Guaidó and joins the Lima group, Alberto is betting on a negotiated exit from Nicolás Maduro's government with the opposition.

This is a position similar to that of Mexico and Uruguay, and opposed to the intervention of the United States, China or Russia in the region. While Fernández acknowledges that Chavismo came from an authoritarian government, he also maintains that, unlike a dictatorship, he was elected to the polls.

On everyone's front, there are other positions that could generate even more tension with Trump. This is the case of Kirchnerism founded at the Instituto Patria, where it defends the summit against the FTAA led by Hugo Chavez in Mar del Plata in 2005 and observes attempts to "destabilize" against the "popular" governments of Venezuela and Mexico. Nicaragua.

The former secretary of the presidency and former head of government, Oscar Parrilli, called to support these processes last March at a meeting organized at the institute to badyze "imperialist interference" in Latin America since the Condor Plan so far ".

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