Alberto Fernández performs a geopolitical gesture that shows his isolation in Mercosur and his proximity to populist governments in Latin America

The Latin American Development Bank (CAF) is a powerful institution with a financial and political stake in the region. Alberto Fernández wants Argentina to take its presidency and participate in a secret negotiation that could end in geopolitical success. However, the movement made from Balcarce 50 left in evidence distance from its Mercosur partners Yes dependence on populist regimes when looking for your own spaces on the international board.

CAF is made up of 19 countries and 13 private banks. These countries are: Argentina, Barbados, Bolivia, Brazil, Colombia, Chile, Costa Rica, Ecuador, Spain, Jamaica, Mexico, Panama, Paraguay, Peru, Portugal, Dominican Republic, Trinidad and Tobago, Uruguay and Venezuela.

The vote of CAF members is not uniform to designate its future executive president. Bolivia, Colombia, Ecuador, Peru and Venezuela have two votes, and one the rest of the countries and the 13 private banks.

Gustavo Béliz has the absolute confidence of Alberto Fernández, he is fluent in English and understands how the world works. He dreamed of occupying the property of the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) and had the presidential endorsement, But Donald Trump has appropriated this regional power space and his desire has turned into a pumpkin.

The head of state lost the battle for the IDB and decided to take revenge on CAF. By conditioned reflex, Beliz signed up for the CAF nomination and discussed it with Alberto Fernández. The conclave was brief: Beliz remains in Buenos Aires. It was a presidential decision without extenuating circumstances.

The Secretary for Strategic Affairs has no replacement at Casa Rosada, and less in the midst of negotiations with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the pandemic crisis, clashes with Brazil, asymmetric ties with China and Russia, and zigzag diplomacy with Joseph Biden.

Christian Asinelli knows all the secrets of CAFHe has an academic background at Universidad Católica Argentina, Universidad Di Tella and was a Fulbright Fellow. He is a personal friend of Beliz and Alberto Fernández trusts his vision of the world. Conclusion: Asinelli is the government candidate for the presidency of CAF.

The United States does not have its own chair in the CAF. But its political weight is tangible, and Joseph Biden can show his black ball without blinking. Alberto Fernández spoke about CAF with Juan González, Senior Advisor to the President of the United States on Latin American Affairs. And González did not raise a single objection.

“I told González that Trump left us out of the IDB, and now we want CAF. He told me that they were not going to block our candidacy ”, commented the president in the privacy of Olivos.

Spain and Portugal are members of the Board of Directors of the Latin American Development Bank (CAF), and each represents a voice when new authorities are elected. Pedro Sánchez and Antonio Costa have already advanced Alberto Fernández that they will accompany the candidate of Frente de Todos. This confirmation occurred during the presidential visit to Madrid and Lisbon.

The counting of the CAF vote presents – for the moment – a strange diplomatic paradox. Balcarce 50 has the green light with Biden, the votes of Sánchez and Costa, and the hazy silence of his three Mercosur partners. This geopolitical bloc was created to articulate a common strategy between Argentina, Brazil, Uruguay and Paraguay in the face of a world that has abandoned the logic of the Cold War and relied on multilateral relations.

However, The Mercosur is a drifting ship. Alberto Fernández and Jair Bolsonaro have personal and ideological differences that can no longer be overcome. Luis Lacalle Pou and the Argentine president have been crossed by the structural conditions of the regional bloc and Mario Abdo Benítez will join the agenda of Brasilia and Montevideo.

In this context, The three Mercosur partners are still hesitant to vote for Asinelli, Argentina’s candidate for CAF. It is a sign of isolation and diplomatic crisis. This is the bill that Alberto Fernández pays for his public statements and his professional levity in certain areas of external relations.

“I’m not going to ask Bolsonaro anything, I don’t take it into account for CAF. In fact, I don’t take it into account at all, ”said the president when asked to Olivos if he was negotiating with Brasilia for his vote in favor of Argentina in CAF.

Alberto Fernández has always maintained cordial treatment with the President of Uruguay: indeed, they shared a relaxed barbecue to bring their positions closer to the future agenda of Mercosur. But the link with Lacalle Pou froze during a session of the regional bloc which had been convened to pay tribute to the formal creation of Mercosur.

It may look like a other or a simple already seen: on this occasion, the head of state also used a maritime parable to explain his institutional opinion. “Let’s end with these ideas that help unity so little. We don’t want to be nobody’s burden, if we’re one burden let them take another boat, but we are nobody’s ballast. For me, it is an honor to be part of Mercosur ”, declared Alberto Fernández before a political proposal from Lacalle Pou which aimed to soften the regional bloc.

The President of Paraguay plays alongside Bolsonaro. And it only gets closer to Casa Rosada if the bilateral relationship is well worked out. Alberto Fernández knows this political need for Benítez, and he has already deployed a diplomatic movement which is secretive and has been mandated for a key part of the governing coalition.

Alberto Fernández was waiting for a call from Asunción last night to find out the details of the negotiations with Paraguay. Your envoy knows the logic of something for something, And it’s no surprise that Benítez promised – at least – to study Asinelli’s background and experience.

Five countries have a double vote in CAF: Bolivia, Ecuador, Colombia, Peru and Venezuela. And among these states, for ideological reasons, Alberto Fernández already has the adhesion of Luis Arce (Bolivia) and Nicolás Maduro (Venezuela). Four out of 19 sure votes: a number that invigorate the geopolitical aspiration of the president.

Peru has been surveyed by Argentina in a capital that is almost the center of the world stage. Its diplomatic representative, with years of pull aside above, he was pragmatic: “We want to vote for your candidate, we know him. I will consult the new government (Pedro Castillo appears with more possibilities than Keiko Fujimori), and if they agree, we will vote for AsinelliThe Peruvian diplomat told a representative of the Argentine Foreign Ministry who has experience in international cooperation.

Colombia and Ecuador, in principle, vote in tandem, distrust the president and question his foreign policy agenda. Ivan Duque (Colombia) and Guillermo Lasso (Ecuador) they consider Alberto Fernández to be very close to Russia, China, Venezuela, Iran and Cuba, and they are unlikely to support an Argentinian candidate for the head of the third operating multilateral credit body in Latin America.

Alberto Fernández aims to ensure that the nomination of Asinelli is the subject of a strong consensus among the 20 members of CAF. It is a complex and difficult goal to achieve. The Head of State only has the votes of countries with populist regimes, he is at odds with his Mercosur partners, he has obtained the adhesion of Spain and Portugal, and perhaps Chile and Trinidad -and-Tobago (courtesy White House).

On June 15, Argentina must present its candidate to CAF. And a few weeks later, the vote will take place. Alberto Fernández has the possibility of obtaining the appointment of Asinelli, if they do not play against his statements on the social evolution of Brazil and Mexico, his decision to leave the Lima Group and his point of view on the conflict in the Middle East.

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