Alberto Fernández vs. Bolsonaro: Has the Mercosur deal failed?

The STEP has not only caused a jolt on the markets and on the dollar. The big difference that Fernández-Fernández's formula has related to macro- It calls into question one of the foundations of the strategy advocated by the government over the past four years: Argentina's "reintegration" plan in the world.

Reintegration understood as a closer approach to leaders such as Donald Trump of the United States, and Jair Bolsonaro of Brazil; and also, as a global and aggressive commercial binding plan with new markets, based on the signing of free trade agreements.

The strawberry dessert is the agreement concluded between Mercosur and the European Union. And while it is true that this negotiation has also been promoted over the twelve years of the Kirchner government, it is true that From the front to all, they were already charged to make known that they would not blindly approve what the current administration had signed, because there are still many small characters to be elucidated.

This pact (which creates a market for goods and services exceeding 800 million consumers) was Macri's highest aspiration. But it was not the only goal: The Department of Foreign Affairs has about half a dozen FTAs ​​in the portfolio to negotiate with other markets.

But all this plan, depending on the serious difficulties encountered by the government to organize a good election in October, may be wrecked.

In each public intervention in which international relations were discussed, Alberto F. has already stated that his priority (or "obsession", as he called it) is to look after SMEs and generate employment again and not subscribe to an agreement promote what he calls the "deindustrialization" of Argentina.

Máximo Kirchner, head of the camp, was also charged with giving a rather crude view of the position that the force has on what was recently signed in Brussels with the EU: "The agreement is a rebirth of the Europeans. because Argentina and Brazil have presidents who put their people on their knees ".

Bolsonaro and the new crack

The recent history of a bilateral political crisis such as that triggered by the pbadage between Bolsonaro and Alberto Fernández has not been noted.

"Since democracy has returned to both countries, there is no record of these tensions between a president, in this case that of Brazil, and a candidate from the Argentine side. We are witnessing a tension in the relationship never seen before"says Professional Marcelo Elizondo, consultant and former director of Fundación ExportAr.

Surprised the level of aggression recorded from one side and the other, with a Bolsonaro speaking of "awkwardness", of "left bandits" and the risks of seeing Argentina become Venezuelan; and with the referent of the Front of all describing the Brazilian president as "misogynist" and "racist".

And he was also surprised that both are involved in internal problems. Bolsonaro acted in this way by directly threatening to dismantle Mercosur if Alberto F. won it in October and that there was a hint of market restriction. And Alberto F. criticized Brazilian justice and accused him of not respecting the rights and guarantees of citizens, as part of the process that led former president Lula to prison.

"I do not predict a very fruitful relationship with the President of Brazil if the Todos Front reaches the government," Elizondo said.

"We see it very clearly: after Sunday's result, the relations between Brazil and Argentina can get complicated," adds Paulo Velasco, professor of international relations at the Getulio Vargas Foundation.

In this context, it is feared that several senior officials in the neighboring country have warned that they would break the chains with Mercosur, if necessary. As Paulo Guedes, Brazilian Minister of Economy, who warned that "If Cristina Kirchner enters and closes the Argentinean economy, we will come out of the block."

In the same vein, Foreign Minister Ernesto Araújo said in an interview that he had baderted that when Kirchnerism was in power, Mercosur was used "for ideological purposes". and that it had no commercial purpose. And he warned that if this were repeated, Brazil would not hesitate to leave this alliance.

Thus, the Bolsonaro government was reluctant to the idea that Argentina and its relations with the rest of the world were in the presence of "setbacks" on free trade, as well as an "approach to totalitarian regimes ".

In dialogue with Professional Welber Barral, former Secretary of Brazil's Foreign Trade, of San Pablo, warned that, if the Front of All formula imposed on the next elections, Mercosur may no longer operate as we know today, given the latent risk that Argentina, 2020 version, does not wish to accompany Bolsonaro in the signing of new free trade agreements, a goal continued by Macri.

"In the bloc 's agenda, it is planned to sign agreements with Korea, Canada, Singapore and other countries.In case of resistance from Argentina, this could lead to a revision of the regulation which provides that Mercosur must continue to negotiate together, with all its members, "warns Barral.

Plan of "moderation"?

Analysts agree that, given the eventual failure of the ruling party in the polls, difficult relations are announced in relations with the South American giant. But not everyone agrees that the block eventually implodes.

"Bilateral relations go beyond personalities and I have the vision that Alberto Fernández, born negotiator, will come to the government, will show a more rational aspect and will tend to avoid clashes. Presidents do not necessarily have to hear on a personal level for the commercial link to work"says Raúl Ochoa, a former undersecretary for foreign trade and a member of the G20 summit think tank in Buenos Aires.

Ochoa thus refers to the theory that, as the candidate approaches power, statements that resound diminish and "rational" gestures multiply.

Part of this could be seen these days, with a candidate who did not come to respond to Bolsonaro's provocations, seeking to put some cold on the verbal escalation.

"I understand that at the end of the electoral process in Argentina, if the victory corresponds to Alberto F., the speech will become more complex and more moderate; future and the end of the crack, this concept should apply in all dimensions of politics, not just internal, "says Said Chaya, professor at the School of Politics, Government and International Relations of the Universidad Austral, in dialogue with this media.

The view shared by many experts that a prospective Front of All government would not result in an overly "fearless" international policy project rested on some of the trusted personalities close to Alberto F. and that they could become an integral part of a prospective firm

Jorge Taiana, who served as Chancellor, and Jorge Argüello (Ambbadador to the United States, Portugal and the UN) have a good impression of the historical diplomatic corps of Brazil. Analysts are therefore convinced that the "cooking" of bilateral relations could be in good hands.

The agreement with the EU, a stranger

The agreement between Mercosur and the European Union raises many doubts, especially after the statements of Fernandez himself, who warned that the pact could lead to a process of "very large deindustrialisation" likely to harm the European Union. 39; Argentina. .

According to him, those of Máximo Kirchner and those of Axel Kicillof, who qualified the pact as "tragic", were added.

But as soon as the news is known, badysts pay more attention to what Taiana said (for his possible role in a possible Fernández government): "Argentina favored an" alleged "diplomatic success in the elections, negotiating a bad deal with the EU that It has not been consulted with the sectors involved and this is harming work and national production. Cortoplacism is a serious mistake of foreign policy. "

As Elizondo and Ochoa point out, the central point is that the agreement as such can not be "open" to introduce changes. After completing the negotiations and drafting the texts and annexes, the legal review phase has been launched and should be completed by the beginning of 2020. It is only from there it should be ratified by the congresses of Mercosur members and by Parliament. European

"This is either black or white. That is, it is approved or rejected by Parliament and, in this case, it will not be valid for Argentina ", Raises Elizondo, stating that there can be no half measure in this FTA.

However, since the space of Alberto F., they warned that macrismo had a striking enigmatic position, which does not show what was specifically signed.

Taiana himself, at a conference that was held these days, was responsible for the additional uncertainty by noting that the so-called free trade agreement was not a complete agreement.

"We have never seen anyone sign a single document, they wanted to give a sign and show political progress, especially on the Argentinian side, but many points are not specified and remain in square brackets or without a definitive version", he warned, leaving Of course, there are still spaces to fill in small print.

For the moment, officials of the Bolsonaro team, such as Ernesto Araújo, have already opened the umbrella: he said that Alberto F.'s "protectionist philosophy" did not allow him to see "the benefits of the agreement ". And that this can not only hurt the pact between the two blocks but "all the other negotiations" under way with other countries.

To this is added a point no less: a projection of Parlamentario.com estimates that the Front of All, in case of becoming a civil servant, could count about 112 members in the Chamber of Deputies, against 110 for Change, provided that the The union between PRO, UCR and Civic Coalition is maintained.

Whatever the case may be, the figures would not be close to the macro to ratify what was signed in Brussels.

Thus, the roadmap of foreign policy before a prospective government of Alberto F. may begin to be sketched out: a cold and tense relationship sometimes with Brazil, a smaller approach in the United States and a little further from lead when signing new free trade agreements.

And the pact with the European Union? For the moment it is a big mystery. But no badyst excludes that "the agreement of the century", signed during the macrismo, ends up stretching far more than the narrative.

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