Alberto Fernández went to Europe to add a geopolitical consensus to his negotiation strategy with the IMF

Alberto Fernández left Ezeiza at 10:05 p.m. for Europe to execute a geopolitical agenda linked to negotiations with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the Paris Club, the free distribution of vaccines against COVID-19, the effective application of the treaty on climate change, bilateral relations with Portugal, Spain, France and Italy, the institutional situation of the Mercosur agreement- European Union (EU) and his friendship with Francisco who is hurt after the sanction of abortion towards the end of 2020.

The debt with the IMF and the Paris Club and its near maturity is the priority of the Head of State in Europe. Alberto Fernández has devised a negotiation strategy that addresses combine the established world order and the ideological abstraction of Kirchnerism which still reads the open veins of Latin America.

The President knows that he must cancel the capital maturities of the Fund and the Paris Club, which involve a total of nearly $ 7 billion, but he also assumes that he does not have these liquidity reserves in the Central Bank. that Cristina Kirchner proposes another agonal, dogmatic and impossible method of negotiation before the formal payment deadlines are met.

Alberto Fernández and Martín Guzmán –your main public and private debt negotiator– share the ideological criteria of avoid traditional economic adjustment have sufficient resources to cancel capital obligations with the IMF and the Paris Club. In this scenario of fresh Yes Benefits political, social and electoral, the president and his minister of the economy they coincide with CFK and La Cámpora.

However, this global reflection matrix is ​​not enough to reach an agreement with the G7 which influences the decisions of the advice of the International Monetary Fund. US, Europe and Japan demand that Argentina present sustainable agenda with possible goals to achieve, and they don’t care about nineteenth-century statements based on old concepts like the periphery, the central countries, or the superstructure.

There is not much chance that Joe Biden, Emmanuel Macron. Angela Merkel and Yoshihide Suga agree to approve an extended facilities agreement for 20 years with an exception rate close to 3% per annum. And that’s what the Vice President and her internal allies want.

Alberto Fernández and Guzmán can claim the economic and social consequences of the pandemic, But the political leaders of the United States, France, Germany and Japan also have a national agenda to meet so as not to end up early in the history books.

In this geopolitical context, The president will travel to Lisbon, Madrid, Paris and Rome to argue that he intends to honor the $ 44 billion debt inherited from Mauricio Macri, that it must postpone the conclusion of the agreement until March 2021 and that it would be ideal for the richest nations on the planet to give up their voluminous Special Drawing Rights (SDRs) middle and poor countries ruthlessly affected by second wave of COVID-19.

This question is essential: SDRs are currencies created by the IMF that can serve as a means of payment for the agency itself or be calculated in the reserves of the Central Bank. Alberto Fernández’s position regarding the use of SDRs belonging to the most powerful nations is supported by Latin America, Spain and Portugal, and it was not ruled out by the US Secretary of the Treasury.

Guzmán is playing an important role in this round of negotiations with the G7. You must get an approved distribution method in mid-sized countries, and for this it is expected that he will participate in the meeting of G20 finance ministers, following direct instructions from Casa Rosada.

The head of the Palacio de Hacienda has yet to have formal contact with Janet Yellen, Biden’s treasury secretary, And when that happens, he will argue that he needs more time to negotiate a sustainable program with the IMF and that the most powerful states agree to cede their SDRs to the countries most affected by COVID-19. Yellen has yet to give interviews to Southern Cone economy ministers, but the hearing is requested and could take place in the coming weeks.

To the complex negotiation between a serial debtor country and a advice which seeks global responses to an international trading system challenged by the pandemic, we must add the typical contradictions of a government coalition that it is very difficult to clarify to the most powerful partners of the IMF.

Alberto Fernández and Guzmán will successively meet the political authorities of Portugal, Spain, France and Italy, and they will swim against the tide when they have to explain why an Under Secretary of Energy, questioned about his bureaucratic time, survived power and why pro-government senators reject the SDR being used to pay the debt’s capital maturities. IMF. when it is not a question of going back to the old recipes of Anne Krueger, Michel Camdessus and Christine Lagarde.

Alberto Fernández needs the meetings in Lisbon with the President of Portugal, Marcelo Rebelo from Sousa, and the Portuguese Prime Minister, Antonio costa; the meetings in Madrid with the King Felipe VI and the head of the Spanish government, Pedro Sanchez; lunches in Paris and Rome with Macron Yes Sergio Mattarella, and the conclave at the Chigi Palace with the Prime Minister of Italy, Mario draghi, lead to satisfactory results linked to the IMF and the Paris Club.

And the political significance of satisfactory results is linked to two fundamental facts: postpone the Paris Club payment due in July (for its two-month grace period) and postpone the agreement with the IMF until March 2022, when the midterm elections have passed and the second wave of COVID-19 is over.

Alberto Fernández and Guzmán have possibilities of achieving these two basic facts. And in the specific case of the IMF, the only requirement of the advice these are the September and December capital maturities (over $ 4,000 million).

The President and his minister wish to cancel these capital debts with the increase in the SDR that Argentina will receive between July and August, but if Cristina Kirchner and her ultra-K senators impose their ideological gaze on the world, Plan B of Balcarce 50 consists in asking the Fund that the payments of September Yes December go flawless until 2022.

In addition to negotiating debt with the IMF and the Paris Club, Alberto Fernández will focus on the climate change deal. This is a key issue that now occupies a very high place on the global agenda due to the geopolitical decision taken by Joseph Biden when he succeeded Donald Trump in the White House.

Macron defends the validity of the Paris Agreement, Alberto Fernández supports an international policy that promotes environmental sustainability, Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez considers it more than necessary to protect global ecology and Italian leader Mario Draghi has already decided that “The Planet” will be a priority aspect of the G20 to be held in Rome.

From this point of view, Alberto Fernández will not be content to deepen his personal relations with Macron when they meet for lunch at the Eliseo Palace, But the Paris agreement will also serve to reconcile positions with Draghi, who very recently took the head of the Council of Ministers of Italy and does not know himself personally.

Draghi has a green agenda which was consolidated with the appointment of the Minister of Ecological Transition, Roberto Cingolani, and the execution of a state policy that allowed Italy to transform into a country of the European Union (EU) with the percentage highest waste recycling (79%). The Italian Prime Minister knows how the global financial power works and is ready to support Argentina’s negotiations with the IMF.

Alberto Fernández has a conclave scheduled with Francisco. It will take place next Thursday morning and will take place at the Apostolic Palace located in Vatican City. The president and the pope are friends, but the sanction of the abortion law has opened a wound that will never heal.

However, the fraternal relationship between Alberto Fernández and Francisco continues and that is why they will find themselves alone to analyze the situation in Argentina and the complex world panorama crossed by a pandemic which does not give respite.

With the Head of State traveling a meager official delegation made up of the first lady Fabiola Yañez, the Minister of Foreign Affairs Felipe Sola, the Minister Guzmán, the Secretary for Strategic Affairs, Gustavo Beliz, the Secretary General of the Presidency, Julio Vitobello and the Secretary of Media and Communication, Juan Pablo Biondi.

Alberto Fernández flies with an Aerolineas Argentinas plane and his first meeting will be in Lisbon with his Portuguese colleague De Sousa. Then the president will visit Madrid, Paris, Rome and Vatican City. His return is scheduled for Saturday May 15, if there are no unexpected changes in the official agenda.

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