All (hidden) readings of Chavismo's operations – 03/29/2019

Venezuela appears as a mythical animal that mingles more and more with an endless political drama and duplicate structures. The regime's decision on Thursday to suspend Juan Guaidó for 15 years, dissident leader and acting president in accordance with the Parliament's mandate, is an abstract and propaganda measure in the image of the opposition taken by the government. Opposition during the declaration of the usurper to President Chaviste Nicolás Maduro. . Both ways reveal the ignorance of the other but, in a static situation, the conditions may be more explosive in this scenario of chaos. The truth is that nothing will happen for the moment with Guaidó, nor with Maduro. The measurement looks towards the future.

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The disqualification of Guaidó was decided by the Office of the Comptroller of the State, an organization that depends on the Congress, which is in the hands of the opposition. The regime has duplicated this office that it had entrusted to the mandate of the Constituent Assembly it had created as a parallel parliament in a suspicious election two years ago. But if such procedures are part of the usual uses of the Bolivarian nomenclature, the opportunity of this decision was surprised. The disqualification of the leader for alleged corruption offenses was adopted on the same day as the so-called contact group, an international initiative that includes the European Union, more flexible with Maduro and that claims the regime, s & rsquo; is meeting in Quito to badyze a negotiated outcome to the crisis of the Caribbean country.

The Bolivarian government's offensive generated a lot of discomfort among the participants in the meeting. This has even caused the rejection of the more distant, such as Uruguay and the Caribbean countries, to accompany the position of 60 other countries around the world that have recognized the provisional mandate of Guaidó. The final document expresses this discontent, with strong questions about human rights violations by the regime and the persecution of the opposition. The tone is no different from the one printed by the other structure that has Venezuela on its agenda, the Lima Group, in which Argentina participates, which invited the Chilean Minister of Foreign Affairs, Roberto Ampuero, to explore the convergence of the two organizations. Reinforced initiative with the displacement of Caracas.

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Chavismo's bad pitch could be attributed to a bad strategy or bad timing, but it is convenient to observe the entire panorama. Maduro looked for alternatives to negotiate with the opposition, a mechanism that does not seek to reach agreements but to gain a key time to preserve itself. The first meeting of the contact group last February 7 in Montevideo, however, opened this chance for dialogue that the most rigid Lima group rejects with slamming doors. The regime celebrated the treaty and what it understood as a division of the international front against it. From that moment on, he intensified the pressure on the opposition to begin a process of discussion similar to that reiterated in recent years with the former dissenting leader of the diffuse table. of democratic unity.

For Europeans, the Venezuelan question is measured in direct interests. There are one million people in Venezuela who have dual nationality of a continent country. They add more than 300 thousand members of the Spanish diaspora and 150 thousand Italians. There is also German and French origin among other borders. This is why a block has been formed with Germany, Italy, Portugal, the Netherlands, Spain and France, which have joined the contact group with the Head of Foreign Affairs of the European Union, Federica Mogherini. This interest is measured in serious details. Italy has recently become the first country to have managed to break Maduro's resistance to let in supplies and donated a million euros in medicine distributed to community members at the embbady. Rome to Caracas. These countries agree to remove the legitimacy of the Chavez regime and grant it to the opposition Parliament and its decision-making system. But they did not approve of Guaidó's appointment. A nuance that is explained by these concerns.

The Chavez government is turning its back on these realities. Bet instead on the erosion of the new dissident direction and perceive that it must do so without wasting time. Last Thursday, he arrested Roberto Marrero, chief of staff of the young leader of Voluntad Popular, accused of terrorism. This operation carried out with a brigade of mobile political police and in the middle of the night, was a provocation against the nations that recognize Guaidó. Nomenclature has sought with this barbarity to show initiative and strength, attributes that call into question the daily reality of the economic crisis, power cuts and shortages that trap Venezuela. But on another level, with these hardships, the regime is also trying to prevent or directly block alternatives that it can not control.

An important aspect of this dimension was last week's unseen meeting in Rome of US envoy to Venezuela Elliot Abrams and Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov. Moscow is one of the main allies of Caracas and has just sent two military transport aircraft to the Caribbean country with 100 soldiers and equipment to mount an anti-aircraft facility on the military base of 39; El Sombrero in Guaricó, in the center of the country.

The United States repeats the story of the annoyance of these presences, but much more pbades through other channels. European diplomatic sources told this column that the Rome meeting had coincided with the gravity of the Venezuelan crisis and predictions of a growing lack of control. "Both parties have accepted the need for an institutional exit, that is to say elections.The difference is that for the United States This path should not include Maduro and the Russians claim that the chavist leader is not excluded. "

The possibility of organizing a free and supervised election with Chavismo's ruling presence is almost unimaginable in the current circumstances. The Kremlin cites the example of a much more complex and recent discussion of the fate of the Syrian regime of Bashar al-Assad, which resulted in the continued existence of this implicated government despite the initial demand against Washington . Is the disqualification of Guaidó a bet on the future of Chavismo in case he does not succeed in stopping such an election? A similar maneuver banished all opposition leaders in the controversial elections last May, during which Maduro was reelected. It is the fraudulent vote that denounces dissent to embody the usurper character attributed to the heir of Hugo Chávez.

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The Rome meeting emerges from the North American difficulty and its allies to keep the pulse with Guaidó but without clear results. This disorder requires negotiating with the regime's allies to try to change the scene, at the cost of accepting concessions for a possible advance. The regime knows it. And that is why he seeks to intoxicate any alternative that leaves his continuity in peril.

This is done by accenting the confrontation to, by the way, putting limits on their own allies. But there are also Chavez hawks who argue that after the arrest of Marrero and the disqualification of Guaidó, the next step should be the arrest of the opposition leader. It would be strategic nonsense, but also a mistake to badume that it should be thrown away. Indicate in all cases who is responsible. Copyright Clarín, 2019.