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Considered already with a certain perspective, Mercosur's attempt at an agreement with the European Union reflects the two conflicting models, although the text obtained in Brussels by the technicians of the two blocs is far from being definitive. It will have to advance on several complex problems not yet solved. It will then have to be signed by the Presidents and, if necessary, approved by the EU Council of Ministers, then by the European Parliament and finally by the 28 countries. In addition, the congresses of the four Mercosur countries must be published.
Hardly all of this happens. In fact, it is estimated that even if all goes well, it will only be operational in three years. So, if there are so many left, why was it presented by the presidents of Brazil and Argentina and by several European representatives? For the Europeans, if this were to materialize, it would be a considerable advantage because it would be allowed to export high value-added industrial products and to receive agricultural products in return, which would only be allowed under highly controlled quotas. Europe is in full discussion with the US government, with which it has a $ 87 billion surplus. Donald Trump has asked them to reduce this benefit, threatening to stop buying European products. The attempt at understanding with Mercosur means for Europeans to show that they have other possibilities. That is, Argentina, Brazil, Uruguay, and Paraguay are used in a discussion among first-level actors, and when the Mauricio Macri government plays an active role, it does so with a predisposition and a naivety rarely seen. In the case of Macri, it is the desperation to give news that could be presented as positive, since he was never able to do so at the end of his term. This is a clear electoral speculation.
The search for an agreement with the EU is very useful to know what project Macri has for our future and to be able to compare it with that of the popular sectors. The preliminary agreement under discussion, which even shook the tears of Chancellor Jorge Faurie, deprives much of the domestic industry of protection and leaves us at the mercy of floods with products of medium and high technology such as automobiles, auto parts, equipment goods, drugs, chemicals, rubber and plastics. The possibility of applying export duties to trade with the EU would be eliminated. That is, Argentina will not be able to impose more withholding taxes.
Navigation in the seas of our country is absolutely deregulated to access the powerful European trade fleet. It includes a public procurement chapter that allows European companies to participate under the same conditions as national companies that have been awarded public contracts. lose one of the few tools we have to promote local productive sectors. All this in exchange for a very small increase in our external food shipments because of the meager surpluses of the European Union. In addition, these small benefits will be offset negatively by the fall of our exports to Brazil, which will prefer to import them from European countries.
This is the model of a country that Macri wants. As Gustavo Grobocopatel said, "we have to allow certain sectors to disappear", although he then said that he was talking about the disappearance of companies and not of sectors. It would be a country without industries, for some who can consume sophisticated French products and use German cars. A model in which only financial groups, banks, mining companies and some small agricultural export sectors have advantages. For the industry, the workers, the domestic trade, the destiny would be in decomposition. Or the disappearance.
What the Macri government is proposing is not always so clear. It always seems disguised of future promises, which never come, or illusions that all the sacrifice we make will always have its reward. With this proposal of agreement, the real project appears with brutality.
(*) Oscar Laborde is president of the FPV-PJ bloc of Parlasur.
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