Along with vaccines, health indicators improve in Brazil | Presents figures not so scandalous

After a devastating second wave that brought the death toll from covid to half a million, Brazil register for a few weeks a drop in pandemic indicators, which specialists attribute to accelerated vaccination rate. the The average number of daily deaths over the past week was 1,252, up from nearly 3,000 lives lost per day during the first half of April, at the height of the second wave. Yes the average number of contaminations is less than 43,000, after having exceeded 77,000 at the end of June.

“We are not yet in a comfortable situation: we have a very high number of new cases and deaths. But in these fully vaccinated age groups, we are already seeing a significant improvement in hospitalization and death indicators”, epidemiologist Ethel Maciel told AFP. Federal University of Espirito Santo (UFES).

Vaccination, which began in January in priority groups (health workers, the elderly, indigenous populations), was affected by the shortage of doses and imported supplies. But Over the past month, the country has successfully stabilized vaccine delivery and distribution and has applied, on average, more than one million daily doses, according to official data.

This has resulted in coverage of 40% of the population with a single dose and around 15% with a full vaccination, and these percentages are expected to increase significantly in the coming months.

Cities like São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro, the most populous in the country, have made progress in immunizing key groups, such as health and education professionals, and are calling on adults between the ages of 30 and 40 for vaccination. first dose. Rio promises to vaccinate all of its population over 12 years old by the end of November.

The vaccination “progressed at a slower rate than desired, but is starting to show clear effects. This was also important for this supposed third wave. [augurada aún el mes pasado] this will not happen, ”said Mauro Sanchez, epidemiologist at the University of Brasilia (UnB).

Brazil, with 212 million inhabitants, already has nearly 540,000 deaths from covid, of which more than 340,000 have been recorded to date in 2021.

Uncertainty by Delta variant

In its latest epidemiological bulletin, the Oswaldo Cruz Foundation (Fiocruz) confirms the improvement in infection and death rates, with a downward trend for at least three weeks.

Also, for the first time since December, None of the 27 Brazilian states has more than 90% occupancy in their intensive care beds for patients with covid.

But virus circulation is not under controlHe and the specialists warn against risk of emergence of new variants or that the variant Delta, considered more contagious, becomes predominant.

The Ministry of Health has so far identified 27 cases of the variant (initially detected in India) and local authorities are conducting intensive contact tracing to prevent its spread. Some states have shortened the interval between the first and second doses of certain vaccines in an attempt to anticipate full vaccination. “The only scenario that could change [la tendencia de mejora] is that new variants appear, or that the Delta changes transmission rates in Brazil, ”Maciel said.

Carnival at last?

Despite the position of President Jair Bolsonaro, who circulates without a mask and questions the safety of vaccines (which he refused to apply), a survey by consulting firm DataFolha revealed this week that 94% of Brazilians have already been vaccinated or intend to do so. . , a record membership since the start of the pandemic.

The consensus among specialists is that Brazil must maintain or increase the vaccination rate in order to fully resume activities (including face-to-face classes with 100% of students) and start thinking about allowing massive events, such as parties. end of year in Rio de Janeiro and Carnival in February 2022.

“The return to normality is not yet on our horizon. We need to have coverage of around 80% of the population, coupled with a very low level of community circulation of the virus, to start allowing crowds or parties like the ones we are used to. , ”Sanchez said.