Alvarez Agis warns that the situation in Argentina "is very serious"

Economist Emmanuel Alvarez Agis said on Tuesday that the situation in Argentina "is very serious" and said that the creditors "know", He was therefore optimistic about the future rebalancing of the debt in order to give the country time to "strengthen its payment capabilities".

Alvarez Agis analyzed the situation of the country before traveling to the United States with his partner Cynthia De Paz, where he will give a conference to financial investors on the situation of the country, at the invitation of a client bank from his consulting firm "PxQ".

"It is obvious that the conference will deal with the situation in Argentina.We have a presentation of 140 films and the first one says: we do not speak on behalf of Alberto Fernández," said the economist in statements on La Red radio.

The economist admitted that it would give investors an approach with regard to Argentina because "no one knows" under what real conditions would Argentina be on Dec. 10 when the government will change if Fernandez finally wins the elections.

Alvarez Agis estimated that the exchange rate is "more controlled and limited today, because there is a very colorful capital control, since Cambiemos tried to reach as few people as possible, or 2%".

"There are 98% of people who buy less than $ 10,000 a month and are not affected, probably because the government wants these people to continue to vote and in that sense there is a drain on the reserves. Central bank loses 100, 120 or 150 million dollars a day in an orderly cascade, it's not an avalanche, "he said.

In dealing with the debt, the economist and consultant said that Argentina had to make payments in December and that it is now in a situation of "repercussion" which aims to avoid payment default, but has made it clear that it would be vital for investors to accept it.

"The uncertainty will persist because we are facing the problem of a very complex transition, because it is clear that the chances do not play in favor of Macri but institutionally, nobody can do anything before December 10" , did he declare.

Alvarez Agis said that "the situation is very serious" and He noted that today a bond from Argentina pays an interest rate of 20% or 25% in dollars when the interest rate at the international level was zero.

"Investors have already been told that they can not get paid now, which adds up to two years of recession, which is no longer the case since 2001. And unlike in 2001, with a very high inflation rate of about 60% In 2001, there was a recession and a deflation, "he said.

In this context, he said that it would be a strictly political decision to adjust or not the control of capital before or after the elections, because the drying up of reserves would continue and worsen the situation in which the next government will present itself.

"The only good thing about this situation is that the willingness to pay was very clear.Three months ago, the market had reason to doubt Alberto Fernández's consent to pay the debt. the situation is very different because of the statements made by Fernández and because of the history of Kirchnerism that is tired of paying its debts, "he said.

He added: "The market is very clear: Argentina wants to pay, no matter who wins.The problem is that it can not pay today. gives him some time, maybe he can do it right and pay, but we need to implement a macroeconomic policy that rebuilds the ability to pay. "

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