AMLO and Mexico’s fourth transformation | Opinion

The coming to power of Morena in 2018, with the leadership of Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO), reorganized the Mexican political council. The current president for a time became the central axis of Mexican politics, and support for his figure not only waned during his early years in power, but consolidated.

A global reading of theCelag’s latest national survey in April 2021, shows AMLO’s political process continues to assert itself Since its enormous popularity, support that equates to minimum – and in many areas even exceeds – the already high 53% of valid votes obtained in the last presidential election.

AMLO’s positive image is around 56%, a very high value given that once the so-called “honeymoon” has passed, it is rare to find Latin American leaders reaching 50%. But, in turn, 6 out of 10 Mexicans consider that the president is committed to the most disadvantaged, the same proportion which gives credibility to his word, and which also highlights its positive attributes: openness to dialogue (27%), intelligence (16%) and leadership ability (15%), configuring a very high overall assessment of his figure.

The horizon of possibility for the continuity of the fourth transformation (Q4) can also be perceived as favorable from two complementary axes:

• The hope placed by Mexican society in the transformation proposed by Q4, and the confidence that this process will result in a paradigm shift. Currently, more than half of Mexicans (52%) consider that “Mexico is going through a moment of profound transformation”. The hopes that this new project brings together thus nourish its original legitimacy.

• The consolidation of Morena as an alternative to political parties to overcome prianism. The manifest affinity of the population with AMLO gradually acquires its correlate in terms of identification with the party in power. When consulting Mexican men and women if they feel sympathy for a political party, almost a third (31%) identify with Morena -6 points more than in June 2020 and triple the PRI or PAN, which follow with 11% and 10% respectively. .

This proximity also has its correlate in electoral terms, given that today The coalition “Together, we make history”, led by Morena, leads by 15 points of voting intention in “Going for Mexico”, an alliance formed between the PRI, the PAN and the PRD to participate in the federal elections of June 6, in which, among other local offices, 15 governorates will be involved and the entire Chamber of Deputies will be renewed.

On the opposition spectrum, the lack of strong leadership is the biggest unresolved issue. Even after reaching an electoral agreement, the opposition still lacks figures capable of seducing the part of society that does not feel identified with the current government. When Mexicans are asked who they think should lead the opposition, the option chosen by one-third of citizens is “none,” well above a variety of leaders. Next is Ricardo Anaya, but with only 23% support – and also carrying on his back the backpack with a negative image of 63% -. In turn, the Going for Mexico coalition has a 57% rejection of the electorate, who declares that “they would never vote” for this political space. And at least six in ten Mexicans have negative ratings of both Margarita Zavala and Felipe Calderón.

In short, almost reached the middle of the presidential term There is a favorable context for the government of Andrés Manuel López Obrador, which has a consolidated leadership, a growing political movement that will be tested in the next election, and a hopeful society with the Fourth Transformation that categorically rejects the old prianist structure. These are decisive elements of the correlation of forces that Q4 will have to continue to strengthen in order to face the challenges that still threaten Mexican democracy – the problem of citizen insecurity derived from the penetration of organized crime, the migration issue, the relationship with the neighbor to the North, and the management of the post-pandemic economy, and thus be able to undertake the fundamental transformations that society requires, mainly the presence of an active State in terms of social protection and with the ability to equitably redistribute resources.

Gisela Brito is Director of Public Opinion at Celag and Guillermo González is Sociologist and Researcher (Celag).