An effect that the central bank has eased with the rates

Until two weeks ago, the question that arose in the local financial circuit was how the Central Bank could buy dollars when the currency pierced the floor of the waterline. From that moment, which seemed imminent, the dollar began to rise. He first did it in centimes. But on Friday, he pressed the accelerator and since then he has earned $ 2.50 in two days. Why is the US currency still sold at $ 40 in the largest private banks?

Analysts agree that the answer is a relaxation of the central bank's monetary policy. The monetary authority has continued to lower the interest rate of the Leliq, the seven-day liquidity letters that it trades daily with the banks and which constitute the benchmark rate. Last week, the monetary entity chaired by Guido Sandleris left about 80 billion pesos in the street by not absorbing one-third of the 120 billion Lebac dollars that were not renewed. .

Gabriel Caamaño, an economist at Ledesma Consulting, monitors the Leliq stock every day. And he compares the performance of the Central Bank in mid-October – on the 16th of this month, Lebac won and much of that title was not renewed – in the way he did it. did last Tuesday, while she still had to deal with a maturity of letters.

In monetary policy agreed with the IMF, the money rate is endogenous to the system, giving priority to the "zero monetary problem". Thus, the rate is set daily, according to the supply and demand of Leliq, the instrument that the BCRA negotiates with the banks. But the BCRA is ultimately the one who decides how many Leliq problems are taken into account. Set the average rate. This rate went from 73% in mid-October to 61.237% Monday.

The BCRA may increase the amount of funds as it exceeds the target set with the IMF. In addition, it has the possibility to create more money in December, when the seasonal demand for pesos will increase, among other things, due to the payment of aguinaldo means. According to the guidelines, the monetary authority can increase the monetary base up to 6% during the last month of the year.