An irreversible result for Macri?

Although some leaders of the ruling party still do not recover from the shock caused by the great advantage that the formula integrated by

Alberto Fernandez

and

Cristina Kirchner

obtained in the recent simultaneous open primary and compulsory (STEP), other men and women of

Together for change

with

Miguel Angel Pichetto

and

Elisa Carrió

at the head, they make a bitter effort to convince their activism that it is possible to reverse this result between the

general elections

October 27 and a possible second round with which they dream.

Driven by this attempt to abandon defeatism, Casa Rosada officials work with a maximum goal: that Alberto Fernández does not reach 45% of the vote in October and that

Mauricio Macri

You can increase your electoral flow to less than ten points of your hangman in the STEP.

Ruling party leaders and political badysts agree that it would not be so difficult for Macri to increase his votes from the 32% he reaped on August 11th to 35% because it will be difficult to get the Front candidate to reduce all to less than 45 points

It turns out that, according to the results of the provisional examination, Fernández reached 47.6% of the votes, but this percentage was calculated on the total of valid votes cast, which includes about 760 000 white votes (about 3 %). . If, as will happen in the general elections of October, the white votes will be excluded from the count and only affirmative votes will be taken into account, the level of adherence to the formula of Fernández-Fernández de Kirchner reach 49.2%; 4.2 points above the minimum required to dedicate the winner to the first round. Macri also improves its percentage of votes, reaching 33.1%, if we put aside the blank votes, but the difference between the Peronist formula and that of the ruling party is however increased to 16.1 points.

What should happen on October 27 so that Macri can reduce the distance in order to be able to define the elections in a ballot on November 24? Nicolás Solari, director of the Real Time Data consulting firm (RTD), has prepared a report according to which it would be necessary to make four hypotheses to avoid a victory in Fernandez in the first round.

• The first badumption would be that Macri receives in October a transfer of voters who supported the OSP to
  

  Roberto Lavagna
  
  ,
  

  Juan José Gómez Centurión
  
  and
  

  José Luis Espert
  
  , equivalent to 50% of the votes obtained by the third armed forces led by these candidates, in addition to about 40% of the total votes obtained by the four candidates for the presidency who were eliminated from the polls during the primaries. Likewise, Fernandez should not collect more than 10% of Lavagna's votes or more than 8% of the votes obtained by the four forces excluded from the competition. If this badumption were given, Macri would reduce his distance from Fernandez to just over 10 points, although Kirchner's candidate still wins, as he would reach 50.1% of the vote.

• The second hypothesis, according to Solari, to be added to the previous one is that of the reduction of the white vote, which reached about 760,000 votes in primary school. If, as in 2015, these votes are halved between the OSP and the general election and if, in addition, this vote is mainly focused on macrism in a four-to-one report, Macri would be approaching. one more point and reduce your handicap to 9 points. In any case, Fernández would continue to be the winner because he would get 49.7% of the votes.
• Third hypothesis: approximately 150,000 Argentineans residing abroad are added to the parliamentary elections (ten times more than in the 2017 parliamentary elections) and their vote is also oriented in the context of a four-to-one relationship. in favor of Macri, after which the disadvantage of macrismo would be reduced to less than 9 points, although Fernández would continue to obtain more than 49% of the votes.
• The fourth and last hypothesis would involve a sharp increase in voter turnout. This is the most important problem because it would considerably increase the mbad of votes on which percentages are calculated and liquefy the relative weight of Kirchner's votes. But for Fernández to be below 45%, voter turnout should rise from 75.8% of primary to 81% in October. That is about 2,700,000 more votes, a figure higher than that recorded in the 2015 general election when voter turnout increased by 2 million votes over this year's PASS. And, as if that were not enough, Fernandez should not capture more than 5% of these new voters. Otherwise, he would be above the 45 points and would be consecrated president in the first round.

In other words, if voter turnout increases from 75.8% to 81% of the register between the August 11th PASS and the October general elections, Fernández and Cristina Kirchner should not add more than 458 000 votes for 45 magic points, while the formula Macri-Pichetto should add about 1,575,000 votes to reach 35 points and avoid a disadvantage greater than 10 points, which would also dedicate the winner to binomial kirchnerismo.

Conclusion: Macri should realize a kind of carom perfect to achieve a tie-up, in a socio-economic context that does not favor it.

IN ADDITION