Analysis: where is the crisis in Venezuela – 03/12/2019

By Alexander Martínez and María Isabel Sánchez

The struggle for power in Venezuela he fights between military support to President Nicolás Maduro and the broad international support to the opposition Juan Guaidó. His result is uncertainbut in each scenario, the armed forces appear to be faithful to the balance.

Guaidó, recognized interim president by more than 50 countries led by the United States, managed to convince the authorities not to stop him on his return Monday to Venezuela, after circumventing the ban on leaving the country. country. the battle continues. In fact, on Tuesday, the Venezuelan prosecutor's office opened an investigation against the opponent, accusing him of being involved in a "sabotage" of the country's electricity system.

Here are the indications that, according to badysts, I could take the crisis.

Pressure until collapse

Guaidó, with strong popular support, came back after failing in his attempt to introduce US donations of food and medicines to the border with Colombia, which would have been an exercise in power. unacceptable for Maduro.

Upon his return, he promised to intensify the protests and diplomatic siege of the Socialist leader, for whom strikes are being fired in the public sector, and calls on the EU to toughen sanctions at the EU. against the government.

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This pressure could lead to Senior Military Command to embrace Guaidó and "collapse the regime, paving the way for a transition with elections." Until now, there are few signs that this is happening, but it is possible"Michael Shifter, of the Inter-American Dialogue based in Washington, told AFP.

However, Donald Trump's sanctions for stifling Maduro, including an oil embargo, would worsen the already difficult conditions of the population "before causing the collapse of the government and at some point. pollute the image "of Guaidó, warns the Venezuelan badyst and director of the Datanálisis sounding company, Luis Vicente León.

Political scientists like Luis Salamanca think that Maduro bets on Guaidó's "attrition".

Politico-military negotiation

According to Datbadisis, Maduro has approved only 14% of the votes, but maintains the loyalty of the military leaders. Guaidó seeks to break this link.

For this, he offers an amnesty to those leaving Maduro, to the exclusion of those accused of crimes against humanity. Some experts call it wander.

Guaidó says that some 700 soldiers and police have not known Maduro in recent weeks, no high command.

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A break in the hierarchy would require negotiations with "specific guarantees" for the leaders involved in corruption and violations of human rightsand that they have great economic interests.

"The transition (like this one) would take more timebut that would increase the probability that it would not be violent, "according to Shifter.

Leon believes that military fear is crushed by a new government or fails in a rebellion against Maduro. A break "therefore requires a difficult amnesty, not generic, but negotiated face to face ".

This could lead to a "co-government in which the army would preserve the control of your strength as a token of personal protection, "he adds.

A group of countries in Europe and Latin America favors negotiations between the government and the opposition, without any progress being made to date.

Hit or invasion

A third scenario is for the military to turn its back on Maduro and hold elections, but it can also act in a traditional coup, according to Shifter.

"The scenario of a military intervention, led by the United States, it seems less and less likely, but that can not be excluded, according to the evolution of the situation ", warns this badyst.

Although Guaidó asked him to consider all the options, the Lima group, a group of countries that recognizes the adversary, forcibly ruled out a solution.

However, for Diego Moya-Ocampos, of IHS Markit (London), the "invasion" is still on the table because of the scale and scale of the humanitarian crisis and the crisis. the possibility that Maduro could attack Guaidó or the Parliament "to oppose

An intervention could, however, also trigger anarchic violence with the participation of squadrons badigned by the government, as it happened when the seizure of donations failed, León remarks.

A regional conflict, with intervention of Colombian guerrillas That can not be excluded, says Shifter.

"Trump's commitment to solving this problem needs to be set aside by motivators for tougher action. before the elections and guarantee its re-election (in 2020). And that makes us think that anything can happen less to maintain the status quo ", observes the director of Datanálisis.

Source: AFP

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