Analysts: AMLO statement on the end of the war on drug trafficking does not end with violence or cartels

After more than 12 years of bloody conflict against narco, President Andrés Manuel López Obrador said the war was over. "Officially, there is no war, we will get peace," said the president.

During the press conference at which he said these words, he stressed that for the first time in a long time 54 homicides across the countrywhen the average was 80 murders daily.

"That's what matters to me: reducing the number of homicides, the number of thefts, the fact that there is no abduction is the fundamental thing, not the spectacular," he said. said, citing the persecution strategy of drug cartel officials.

The Mexican president said that to date, no capital pillar of the drug has been stopped because, unlike previous governmentsit will not be your main function anymore.

"The main function of the government is to ensure public security, it is no longer the strategy of operations to stop the capos, but what we are looking for, it is the security, in order to be able to reduce the number of daily killings, "he repeated.

The interpretation of the message

Infobae Mexico He spoke with several security experts to ask what the impact and scope of the president's statements would be.

Some have approved his strategy, others have interpreted it as a kind of pact with criminals. "You lower yourself to violence and we also lower you," said Carlos Rodríguez Ulloa, member of the Collective of Analysis of Security with Democracy (CASEDE).

AT Froylán EncisoProfessor at the Center for Economic Research and Education (CIDE), we can already say that some indicators indicate a change of priority in the security policy, especially in the field of drug trafficking.

"In the first month of López Obrador's government, all the figures relating to the confiscation and eradication of plantations in the peasant areas where opium marijuana and opium poppy were produced were reinforced and the seizure of peasants was increased. weapons and arrest, "he said.

For the specialist, this means that now, instead of violently attacking the peasant areas where the drug is produced or capturing the leaders of the criminal gangs, he will seek to disarm and dismantle the big cartels.

"Now they want to increase the number of arrests, stop the entire structure, intercept the weapons and leave peasants marijuana growers in peace," he insisted.

However, he admitted that it was still too early to know if this strategy would work and that he did not believe that the homicide figures released by the president constituted a solid reference. "We need more data to keep them"he said.

He also mentioned that in the circle of specialists, there is some skepticism about policies that increase military power. He explained that paradoxically, on the one hand, the president seeks to change the strategy of resorting to violence to fight against drugs, but at the same time, it increases the resources of the army and the power of fire through initiatives such as the creation of the National Guard.

"It seems like we're in a situation where we have a president looking for a military firepower do not use it. Increase the firepower without necessarily going out to shoot bullets. It is about a strategy of resumption of territorial control from across the country the deterrence of the use of violence"He concluded.

Rodríguez Ulloa, Considered the president's words as a "very clear" message that targets those responsible for the crime. "What he meant was that even if (capos) do not generate more violence to civil society, there will be no greater pressure on them and their activities. "

The Casede badyst does not consider this strategy to work because it depends on whether the interlocutors listen to the message and whether they decide to give it enough importance.

AT Francisco Rivas Rodríguez, director of the National Observatory of Citizens (ONC), an organization specialized in security issues, the figure used by López Obrador (54) to explain that homicides are decreasing, It does not really mean anything.

He mentioned that some experts believe that the homicide trend is measured every year. It can not be measured twice a year or every month. "Much less everydayhe badured.

"This figure says nothing about the reality of the country and it is not enough to say that the problem has been solved"

He explained that in all cases, these results, apparently favorable, would be the effect of past government policiesbecause he has ensured that politicians "also have their time".

He felt that there is still time to say that the homicide trend is down and determine whether it coincides with the new government's revenue.

Rivas Rodríguez did not agree with AMLO's badertion that arresting the government is not the government's priority.

He felt that Lopez Obrador's statement had no repercussions, there has been no change in the government's actions in the face of crimes. The army is still in the street and there is no strategy to strengthen local institutions. Prosecutors and prosecutors continue to have the same deficiencies.

"Nothing has changed, exactly the same things that happened before continue to happen," he concluded.