Analysts predict that Peru will beat Chile in growth in the coming years

Although the government insists on giving a positive touch to the march of the Chilean economy, neither the domestic market nor the international agents corroborate the figures projected by the Ministry of Finance.

Although the state secretaries of the Economic Committee like President Piñera himself badure that Chile in the neighborhood is an economy that stands out, according to badysts, it will no longer be so, since Chile will lose leadership this year in the Pacific Alliance countries (Chile, Peru, Colombia and Mexico) in terms of growth.

If, a few days ago, the Peruvian team left us from the Copa America, it is now the neighboring country that makes us move and consolidates as the fastest-growing economy this year according to the latest report Latinfocus Consensus Forecast which includes projections of 38 entities worldwide and Chile.

Peru is positioning itself as the leader of the growth of the Pacific Alliance and the region for this year, with an estimated expansion of its gross domestic product (GDP) of 3.5%, compared to the 2.9% forecast by the report for our country.

In the document, they indicate that for this year, the march of the Peruvian economy will be slower (last year, it increased by 4%, like Chile) due to Low investment in infrastructure and the non-mining sector. Despite this, He pointed out that consumer spending and sustained credit growth will partially mitigate the slowdown.

For the next four years Peruvian forecasts indicate an increase of 3.7% for 2020; 3.8% out of 2021 and 2022; and 3.9% in 2023. And Chile? According to Latinfocus, the activity is expected to grow between 3.1% and 3% all these years.

The report says that, of the 2.9% expected this year for Chile, international volatility will be the backdrop to impact mining production, which will undoubtedly affect our exports. This is coupled with moderate household spending and weak employment growth. As buffers of the above, mention is made of the impetus that should be given by the recent reduction in the interest rate as well as by the "next" tax reform.

Colombia

But be aware that not only will Peru take the lead in Chile, because, according to badysts, growth in Colombia will also be greater than that of the East and the coming years. For this exercise, they plan a 3% expansion for the country of coffee, thanks to the dynamism that it will bring investments in infrastructure and petroleum projects as well as solid consumption. All of this should offset the fiscal adjustment and weaker export growth.

For the next four years, the expected growth in Colombia is between 3.2% and 3.5%..