and after

A cursory reading will ensure that the government is doing its best to reduce the many imbalances that have dragged the economy, in some cases, for several years. The promising data of the last few hours is that, in official offices, economic recovery figures are higher than budget estimates, equaling 7% of which Minister Guzmán is speaking privately. This raises a second scenario to analyze: for each point of growth, a three point increase in imports is estimated. Ergo, at each stage of reactivation there is an associated (often unmet) demand for dollars to pay for imports, which could dampen this expansion in business. There is a point to be resolved which the management of the BCRA is analyzing.

As said, the main objective is to reduce the pulses of the forex market, and that in this kind of eternal dream, the BCRA emerges as the winner, that is, the one who can acquire the currencies. A quick glance shows a devaluation “peak” of 3.8% per month last February. From there, they estimate that speed could be halved by the middle of the year, around 2% per month. If this rate is maintained, a wholesale dollar would hit $ 101 (July) and $ 103 (August). A quick glance reveals that in the country of Rofex, the beginning of the year expected a devaluation close to 60%, although it does not now reach 45% and could fall further.

In the corridors of the leading entity Miguel Pesce They assure that the next few months will continue in the same way: apart from the precautionary measures, there will be a jealous administration of currencies for foreign trade, on the principle that there will be only dollars for the actors who actually have to pay for the goods. who enters the country and certain debts to be canceled. There are no dollars to pay for anything else. In this sense, it is understood that there could be marginal changes in the mechanism that restricts access to the foreign exchange market. These modifications will then be reactive to what the circumstance suggests. International agricultural prices are in favor, and even dollar income to pay wealth tax that the BCRA is watching closely.

On the other hand, we know that on the stock market, to shorten the exchange rate differential a few months ago, a bond transaction (for example, the AL30) was set up: in this transaction the BCRA sells in Spot with Settlement ( CCL) at $ 140 a portion of the dollars you buy on the official market at $ 95. For the equation to be more powerful, it is assumed that as a result of this chemistry, the BCRA should be able to accumulate net reserves. However, this is not happening (for now) because the dollars acquired in the official market are not enough to sell dollars in the CCL and, at the same time, to cancel the debt with organizations like the IMF.

In any case, this scenario seems to contribute to the inflation start to descend. Official calculators estimate that this phenomenon would start to manifest itself in April or May, if the reactivation did not end up heating up prices completely. They bet a lot on it. To do this, the official exchange rate will continue to slide at a slower rate, which freezes the spread, in turn allows very little to increase in tariffs, and indirectly encourages price controls to have a greater effect, mitigating inflationary expectations (and wage increases). The footnote is that the BCRA is clear that it cannot leave the price of the currency behind and that it will wait for “windows of opportunity” to update the number. Strictly speaking, inflation should slow down to allow some type of upward correction in the devaluation rate.

For the end, the prices. Since the government came to power, the BCRA has been dedicated to lowering interest rates. At that time, with the Leliq at 60% per year, it was dropping to 38%. Also the success rate, which went from 50% per year to 12%. When the pandemic arrived, the downward trajectory was halted and, instead, the entity began to spawn a set of credit lines at prime rates, while limiting Leliq’s tenure. At that point, the sum of the monetary issue associated with falling interest rates and capping Leliq’s tenure led to a drop in the fixed-term interest rate paid, which ended up stretching the ‘exchange rate differential. However, by recalculation, he put new higher ceilings on Leliq’s stake for banks (he absorbed more pesos issued) while increasing that of pensions to 32%. With regard to fixed durations, the idea is that this instrument makes it possible to discourage dollarization and to “stay in pesos”. To do this, not only has he set a floor on the fixed rate paid by banks, but has also sought – and seeks – to spread the profits of the grape over a fixed term, which pays above inflation. Grape fixed durations hit a record in February when the stock surpassed $ 100,000 million, a 141% jump from last September that shows just how much inflation and slowing the speed of devaluation are. perceived as something that will last the entire anus. It is likely that this is so.