Andrés Malamud. "For Argentina, it is impossible to apply the Portuguese model"

For months now, Kirchnerism and other sectors of the opposition have been proposing the "Portuguese method" of applying a sovereign economic plan without international organizations, as an alternative to the Argentine recovery and against any adjustment. But Argentine political scientist and professor at the University of Lisbon, Andrés Malamud, insisted on this possibility. "For Argentina, it is impossible to apply the Portuguese model," he said during a phone interview with LA NACION of Lisbon, where he has resided since 2002.

Last week, Malamud wrote on Twitter: "For many,

Portugal

it has become the Bible of anti-adjustment. But the Bible has two parts. In the Old Testament (2011-15), intervention and mbadacre. In the New Testament (2015-19), love and resurrection. There is no free paradise, "he wrote on his Twitter account.

Indeed, in 2014, after having paid its agreement with the international financial organizations, Portugal notably launched its troika made up of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Commission. European (EC). economic program and enjoys enviable growth today for many European neighbors.

– How do you see the possibility that Argentina applies the "Portuguese model" proposed by some sectors of the opposition?

-Impossible. The Portuguese model consisted first of all in overcoming the adjustment and then gradually adjusting it, while maintaining the reduction of the deficit. The Greek model, on the other hand, was to promise to break with international organizations and then betray that promise. That's why many believe that Cristina Kirchner could do the "great Alexis Tsipras" [por el primer ministro griego]: win the elections and continue with the adjustment. If Cristina wants to apply the "Portuguese way", the lesson from Portugal is that adjustment is inevitable and it is bad for her. Plus, the installer loses. And it's bad for Macri.

-How did Portugal go through the 2010 financial crisis?

-The global crisis of 2008 begins in the United States. The first European country concerned is Greece, then Portugal, Ireland and Spain. These are not all similar crises. Greece was a kind of Mediterranean India, with a deficit and very high debts, hidden in the official figures. In Spain and Ireland, there was a housing bubble. This was not a tax debt, but a private debt. But as it affects the banks, the states are going to the rescue of the banks. Let us be clear: European bailouts are made so that debtors in the south can pay the German and French banks. In Portugal, the budget deficit was huge and it is a socialist government that called in 2010 for the intervention of the troika, who can no longer hide the deficit or pay wages.

– How is the Portuguese crisis similar to that of Argentina?

– Portugal being a European Social State, it has also recorded considerable public expenditure, probably higher than that of Argentina in relation to GDP, with a high percentage of retirees due to the aging of the population. Retirements and salaries in the public sector have been high, generating a huge budget deficit.

-What are the two countries different from?

-First, Portugal is part of the European Monetary System and is a peripheral country. It does not have its own monetary policy and therefore can not be devalued. What they had to do from 2011 was what they call an "internal devaluation", in order to reduce production costs, that is, the salary . All salaries in the public sector have been reduced between 20 and 25%.

-Is it legal to reduce wages?

-In Portugal, there are 14 annual salaries. By a special law, the government has temporarily "suspended" the premiums, that is, it has cut wages by 14%. In addition, they cut public wages by between 5 and 10% depending on their rank. I work at a public university and at my rank, I received a little over 8% discount. So, in a year, I saw my income reduced by almost 23%. Moreover, the Portuguese emigrate even in times of growth. The reduction of the population was therefore another element of the adjustment. People who did not want adjustment went to other countries.

– Were there any redundancies?

– In the public sector, wages have been reduced and a new labor law on layoffs in the private sector has reduced unemployment from 8 to 18 per cent. An increase in taxes has also been approved. Today, VAT is 23% and the adjustment made when breaking the troika was even more difficult. Boys read books in schools explaining the fit. They came from school to ask when the crisis was about to end.

– What was the reaction of the population?

-There are several problems. First of all, an idiosyncrasy theme. The Portuguese felt "guilty" of what was happening to them. You must think that this country was an empire five centuries ago. Today, this people is disturbed by their mistakes, they feel small, marginal and peripheral. Unlike what happened in Greece, the Portuguese believed in the speech of German economists on the need to put their accounts in order. Greece hate

Angela Merkel

and here people thought that the Germans were right in their diagnosis of the Portuguese situation. That is why, when the Prime Minister announced that he would adapt beyond what the Troika had asked them because of Portuguese responsibility in the crisis, he embodied that Portuguese spirit of guilt.

– How does this compare to Argentine idiosyncrasy?

– There is a 1984 article by Guillermo O Donnell, now deceased, entitled "For me, what am I crazy about". He explained the difference between Brazilians and Argentines in a discussion. There are two Brazilians of different social clbades. The lower clbad is violent and the upper clbad asks, "Do you know who you are talking to?" It lowers your head and asks for forgiveness. Argentina's response to the same situation is: "And me, what am I crazy for?" Argentine society is egalitarian, while Brazilians and Portuguese are more obedient to power. Here, the adjustment could be imposed because people respect the authority. In addition, the Portuguese leadership is austere. And while there are cases of isolated corruption, it is not a corrupt organization of the food system. In Portugal, the adjustment was applied, they watched on TV the epidemic of social violence in Greece and they did not want to look like Greece.

– How is the "Portuguese miracle" going?

– The Portuguese economic recovery is not, as Sergio Mbada says, because there was a development plan. This had to do with the adjustment imposed by the troika and the series of caramboles that followed the adjustment. Among others, the failure of the Arab Spring, which has made the conditions of tourism in North Africa unfavorable and Portugal has developed as a tourist option. In 2017, 13.7% of Portuguese GDP came from tourism. But Portugal has done nothing to boost tourism. He had it because the Arabs go bad. The second aspect that stimulated recovery was exports. But again, there was no Portuguese development policy, but it was the consequence of the division of labor in Europe. Germans start to open companies in the periphery, then import. Portugal is today a major exporter of 300,000 cars a year, especially German and French brands. It's almost ten times more than the Argentine auto production. In other words, tourism and exports are the two main pillars of the Portuguese economy. This is not foreign investment, as Macri wishes, nor domestic consumption, as the plan of Cristina Kirchner.

-What were the political consequences of the adjustment?

– The lesson to remember from Portugal, is that the adjustment loses. Everyone understood that the adjustment was necessary. Everyone did it and everyone lost the election. This represents an unfavorable scenario for Macri. The Greek model was different. The center right made the adjustment and lost the election. Then the left won with the promise of not adjusting, but broke its promise and adjusted. And yet, he has not lost his support.

-How does Portugal live today its economic resurrection?

-After seven years, last year, I returned to earn the same salary as in 2018. Unemployment now reaches 7%. The Portuguese are delighted with the current situation. They like to know what they think of them on the outside and enjoy them. The government continues to reduce the budget deficit. It has not expanded the state and continues to make small adjustments.