Andrés Oppenheimer: "I interviewed the Latin American presidents on technological unemployment and many of them had no idea what I was talking about"

Andrés Oppenheimer presented in Miami The robots are coming!, the English version of his latest book, Save yourself, what can!in which he badyzed the evolution of human labor in the near future of the automation and artificial intelligence. "I am worried for the near future, not for the long term: the lady who comes from lose your job on the parking lot in front of you, overnight, replaced by an automatic payment box, it can not be reinvented within 24 hours. "

Published by Vintage, the seventh book of the chronicler The Miami Herald and driver of Oppenheimer presents (CNN) collects a Five years of research on three continents. It began in Europe: in England, the author spoke with Carl Benedikt Frey and Michael Osborne, researchers at the Oxford Martin School who upset the world in 2013 with a study that predicts 47% of jobs disappeared 15 or 20 years from now.

While all technological innovations have had an impact on the world of work throughout history, they have always been regarded as improving the world. But exponential speed at which the current change occurs – According to article Gordon Moore, co-founder of Intel, "the capacity of computers increases by 100% every 18 months", so it is very difficult to maintain optimism immediate future.

"We have had thousands of years to reinvent ourselves from hunters and gatherers to become farmers"he argued. "More recently, in the industrial revolution, we had hundreds of years to reinvent ourselves, from peasants to workers, then a hundred years to reinvent ourselves, workers in service. The automation of our professions does not give us even a few decades to reinvent ourselves. Many times we have 24 hours. "

For the moment, according to research established by Oppenheimer, it is better to say only that they will improve the world in the long run, but for the moment they change it in a very traumatic way. "The discontent of workers in traditional industries has led to the emergence of nationalist, protectionist and anti-globalization parties in the United States and several European countries," he warned.

The reporter arrived at the bookstore Coral Gables Books & Books (where he attended the The Mayor of the city, Raúl Valdés-Fauli) along with his wife, Sandra, and a son, Thomas, recently chosen as one of Florida's top under 40 lawyers. "Sorry, I had to brag," he said after sharing the news. He spoke, answered questions and signed copies.

The conversation with the people who approached took place in Spanish: there were Cubans, Venezuelans, Argentineans. Many Venezuelans who asked him his point of view about the situation after the last mobilizations: "The Maduro's strategy is the time: that another crisis arrives and forgets Venezuela, that the opposition gets tired and that the Cuban thing goes by and that another five million go away"Some people had expectations, but Oppenheimer did not share them:" But if it's not resolved now, forget about it. "

After clarifying that technologies such as Artificial intelligence and robotics generate new jobs while destroying the old, stressed that the peculiarity of this rapid change lies in the replacement of human labor, especially in information processing tasks, such as the administrative office or the sale of goods and services. That's a huge segment of the current job landscape.

He told his own story: When he started his program, he had five cameras, each with a cameraman who was operating it.. "How many cameramen do I have today?" Asked he. "Zero These are all robotic cameras. Someone whispers to me in the ear: "Say hello to camera 1", "Speak to camera 2". But it is not there. This is someone who operates a remote lever. "

Oppenheimer was born in Argentina and lives in the United States, where he gained the reputation of master of journalism of Columbia University. There he received, with the team The Miami Herald, the price Pulitzer for the Iran-Contra affair. His interest in the future of work comes precisely from his specialization as a political badyst. "It's going to hurt everyone, is going to be a serious problem in the years to come"he explained.

"This issue, along with immigration, is probably the most crucial for the future of democracies and for welfare state policies, "he said. Book by Juan Luis Cebrián Oppenheimer in The country. And the author said in Miami that many European countries have already begun to explore ways to solve this problem. "In some countries, people have three days off per week: Friday, Saturday and Sunday, "he said," and many people propose a universal basic income"He thinks of a similar option", but related to social work.

Latin American leaders are not even aware of this impending political problem. "Some will have a very brutal alarm clock"he said. "The most affected countries are those that rely heavily on the manufacturing sector, such as China or like Mexico. I asked them about the technological unemployment many presidents of the region and many they had no idea what he was talking about"

The case of Mexico seemed very worrying: "As China buys robots, to the point of being the biggest robot buyer in the world, Mexico does not do anything, do not even talk about it. And this will hit emerging countries much harder than the rich. "

Another political consequence of the phenomenon, he said, is also observed: "In some countries Europe, as in the United States [Donald] Trump, many populist leaders use foreigners or immigrants as scapegoats technological phenomenon that leads to the loss of jobs or lower wages. "In the United States, for example, the loss of industrial jobs in the North" is due to automation and not to Mexican migrants, who typically work in California and Texas in agriculture, gardening " .

"The robots work three teams, they do not take a vacation, they do not ask for an increase, they have no health problems, they do not get tired", illustrated. "It's very difficult to compete." In addition, they tend to make less mistakes than humans and have developed the ability to learn, the heart of artificial intelligence. And they evolve: while a human can increase his productivity up to a maximum, the robots do not have that ceiling.

"A doctor, for example, how many scientific articles can you read per week after work? Two, ten?he asked a public man who identified himself as a doctor. Watson, IBM's artificial intelligence supercomputer, can treat 10,000 scientific articles a week"

Oppenheimer stated that one of his interviewees, Nick Bostrom, Director of the Institute for the Future of Humanity, said with a smile: "We are moving towards a world without work. And that's the best thing that can happen to us. The concept that work gives us a purpose in life is quite new. In the Middle Ages, the aristocrats did not work. "The problem," Oppenheimer warned, "is that current generations are born with" that mental flea "and asked" what will we do with our self-esteem? ".

The reporter – who also worked at the Associated Press, The New York Times, The Washington Post, The new republic, CBS News and won the Rey de España Awards, Ortega y Gbadet and María Moors Cabot – advised everyone to badyze, in their professional field, which jobs will disappear. "Journalism will not disappear," he said. "But the author of an informative note, one who writes what happened, when and where, will no longer exist: this will be done by an algorithm, as it will be done. arrived in The Washington Post in the 2016 elections".

Far from justifying the fight against the Luddites' machines, The robots are coming! it's a book Pro-Tech, as its author. He does not see apocalyptic scenarios on the horizon: he thinks that before worrying about robots that dominate humans, there is More real problems such as "technology dependence and technical errors". What will happen, he gave as an example, "when our artificial heart will be connected to the cloud and something happens, will they say:" Oh, sorry, there was a problem& # 39 ;? "

In addition to identifying the 10 areas that will create employment in the near future (for example, health badistants, digital and spiritual security advisors), Oppenheimer's book offers "tips to prepare" for change. "For example, identify what part of the work of each person has the best chance of survival, who is more likely to disappear, who is more likely to develop"he said.

Another key, closed, will be the lifelong education. "One of the people I interviewed told me that education would now be like subscribing to a magazine for life. You must forget to study for several years, to receive you, to put the diploma on the wall and to work all your life according to what you have learned. When a person is received now, much of what he has learned is obsolete. This degree is important and will matter more, but it will not be enough. You will have to study all your life to update your skills or to reinvent yourself."He proposed.